Sunday, July 31, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Monday, August 1st, 2011


Pushed higher but couldn't stick

Let's see if we test 1300


Nice gap up

The S&P Futures have opened for the week with a nice size gap up right into the 78.6%Fibonacci retracmenet of the multi day swing down that ended last week

The news that the debt ceiling deal is very close is the reason behind the sharp move.

Here's some news on that:

Stickiness above these highs suggests a full retracement to 1313. Failure here could lead to support at 1300, follwoed by 1292

If we gap up big at the Monday open, it could lead to a nice fading opportunity.

As I finish this up, we are ripping it higher here, so let's see if they bid it up all night


120 Minute S&P Futures All Session Chart

Here is a chart of the 120 minute all sessions S&P Futures.

I came into Friday watching this key Fibonacci level and the DT oscillator for a potential buying opportunity.

The DT oscillator turned early, and we didn't quite make it to the 78.6% level highlighted on the chart. I'm still watching that level as downside support should we see further weakness in the market early this week.

Chart courtesy of Dynamic Trader


Friday, July 29, 2011


On a brisk pace



Market rocking and rolling here

Resistance levels to watch: 1300, 1302, then 1306


it was a bull flag after all

We have filled the gap now

Picking up some small divergences here


1291.75 was shreddded, but...

We are seeing rejection off the (close but no cigar) gap fill here

See if it just sets up another bull flag or if we continue to drip



Upside target achieved

Will the 200 day MA be all we get on the downside for the SPY?


1291.75 tagged

No rejection yet, we are just messing around with it as a pivot for now.

1295.75, then the gap fill are the next upside targets if the momentum continues here


We are looking like a 5 minute bear flag

See if it confirms



First resistance up here to watch is 1291.50. that;s the 38% retracement of the last nice sized swing down.



One of my favorite entries used to be using the first 5 minute breach, but it hasn't been as effective as it has in the past. Today for example, if taken would have been a quick stop out.

I'm using other tactics for entries and exits, and they are based on dynamic levels, rather than static ones.

I'm not throwing the old tactics out, as they are still effective, but I'm trying to narrow in for tighter levels to grab on to.

By the way, not to stroke the ego too much here, but the techniques you are taught by some of the super guru deluxe training programs are my techniques that were hijacked over the years. They haven't adjusted (they are always late to the party), so be every careful if using those techniques. They don't care, because they just go on gut and feel in their own trading, while pretending to actually have a teachable system to pass along.


Now I have problems

Here's where my radar gets jammed a little bit.

We are starting to push down which is great. Unfortunately, unless we hit 1274.25, the level highlighted in the AM, I'm likely going to leave this fade alone. I would be hesitant at taking the fade here unless we first tested that level.

This is a ME problem. I'm not saying the fade wont work unless we test that level, or that the day is over, it just jams me until 10 AM more than likely.

For example, off the lows, I got a buy signal that I would have taken 80% of the time, especially off of a fade, but I passed. We just broke a small channel, that may have been an alternate entry, I passed that as well. Maybe that will be for the better, or maybe we scream from here. I don't know.

This blog is real life (minus the swearing), not fantasy land. I use this blog as my sounding board. There are a few places you can go where super gurus rule and no one ever loses. They say they are glad they are wrong (when they admit they are the one or two times a year) and spin everything they do as "we knew it!" If that's what you want, go there and ignore this blog, PLEASE. I won't be offended.

And here we go. Shoot! 10AM can't come soon enough.


New lows

Below the overnight lows here, I think we might have lower to go (see the chart posted early this AM) but this is a deep gap down, so it deserves some respect as a fading op

Stalking an entry here


Nice size gap down

Definitely in fade territory, as we are testing the 200 day moving average ehre on the SPY


Thursday, July 28, 2011

Level to watch

I wouldn't mind seeing 1274.25 if the DT oscillator lined up along with it for a nice entry point with confirmation.

Chart courtesy of Dynamic Trader Software


Stock Market Trading Watch List for Friday, July 29th, 2011

What I think about the "debt crisis"

I hate politics. I love all the people that sang na na to Bush, and are now ripping Obama as well. Hypocrites unite!

I think that there is a very good chance that a deal is made. I don't think President Obama can't take the chance of completely wiping out his reelection hopes.

My 2 cents, and how the market reacts is anyone's guess at this point. We should at least try to bounce, but does it start the next leg up?


If a super guru sounds too good to be true....

They are!


S&P Video for Friday, July 29th, 2011

SPY target

We got the downside continuation I was looking for, but the first target is still 129.63 on the SPY, and we haven't gotten there yet.

I'm looking for more downside tomorrow, barring news.


I do not think the downside is over

Based on how we closed yesterday, I do not think the downside has completed yet. I think we have more downside to be seen before we can get a sustainable bounce.

We may continue to digest yesterday's big move, but I think there is a chance we see some downside continuation later this afternoon

Staying alert here, but being careful not to jump the gun either


volume is on the light side

We are getting a digestion day off yesterday's sharp move to the downside.

Volume is a bit under yesterday's turnover.

So far, we've held tight at the area of the intra-day consolidation put in yesterday

Levels to watch: 1303.50 downside. Highs of day on the upside, then 1316.25

These levels are basis the S&P Futures



two way pushes both turned into good fades for scalps. I didn't like that first push down, so that's a big time hindsighter...hey, a new word!

First push above overnight highs was met with selling, as there was no demand, but we are trying again to stick above those overnight highs.

So far, less volatility, which is expected after the big range yesterday



The BB midline (also known as a 20 period simple moving average) appeared to be ok resistance, at least for a scalp

Still watching for either a push higher or a break of yesterdays lows to stalk a trade entry


first resistance here

Here's the midline of the Bollinger Bands on the 5 minute day session S&P Futures. Waiting for more of a push


Lame gap- Thursday July 28th

lame gap to start the session, so Im waiting for a push either way to watch for a setup


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Thursday, July 28th, 2011

CME ouchie

CME got clipped today

Someone wrote me to tell me they took it yesterday off someone's advice.

Use stops no matter how good the person thinks they are, they won't be paying you back that's for sure!



S&P 500 Video for Thursday, July 28th, 2011

Here we go again

1300 being retested. Will be double bototm or smash through the lows. We should find out shortly


1300 holds

1300 holds for now on the S&P futures.

We dipped below it for a few tick, but there was no supply so we came right back above.


SPY below key support

If the SPY closes below 130.72, it suggest a full retracement to 129.63 is coming.

That's the key line in the sand for now


Watching for a double bottom

Im watchign tos ee if we get a test of lows and from a double bottom.

I may not be here when/if it happens, as I've been in and out al day.

How's that super giru 1325 support holding? I guess you wont hear about that anytime soon.



Tuesday, July 26, 2011

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, July 27th, 2011


Forex is where the biggest scoundrels prey on unsuspecting traders. There is the opportunity to make money trading Forex, but it is highly leveraged and that needs to be respected. Many scoundrels seek to exploit the low deposit requirements. Seems like some notorious scumbags are starting to enter the Forex arena. Be very careful, they are likely getting paid on your trades, and of course not disclosing it.

Make sure you get quality education in the Forex market. If not, you will quickly blow up your account, like the nefarious scoundrels who are now pushing it it did. Just ask them to be honest for once about it.

I get asked all the time about Forex. My prefered educator is Andy Garcia at

I don't get a referal fee, his stuff is just aweosme. He's a great technician, not someone that is using charts now that their "feel" has gone away. It's easy to trade by gut, dreams and feel when everything is flying high, and everyone is making money, isn't it?

Andy has no hidden agenda, he just provides a great service. Learn forex from the start and you will be much better off than subscribing to some new service that will either over charge you, or make you sign up with a specific broker in order to get it. What do you think thats all about....duh! The scam artists must think we are morons.

Don't fall for the old "I'm a great guy, see how much good stuff I do!" con. This is just the way that the evilest scum on the planet scratch their scabs. Don't donate to their luxury living fund any longer.

REFUSE TO BE SCAMMED! CONTACT THE SEC, FNRA and FTC if you feel you have been taken advantage of!


Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday July 27th, 2011

Bulls couldnt get it going

We arent crushed, but the breakout absolutely failed as the Bulls could not bring in any pressure and there was no deamnd on the upside.

If we cant hold 1325.50 on a retest down, wach for a move to 1322


Market Update

We are a sloppy mess here, but we have the look of a smal cup and handle. if we cna trade above 1333 and catch a tail wind, we could trade to the overnight highs.

We will need some help from breadth which is -400s, and we will need the bulls to step up and give a shot of momentum to teh cause

Otherwise, we remain in the chop zone


Inverted H&S

The nice inverted head and shoudlers that formed this morning has achieved it's target. Now let's see if it gets a bonus move


Thanks for all the great comments

I'm getting some great feedback regarding exposing the scoundrels and scams going on, and especially the information about the hedge funds.

Despite what some might think, Im not talking about one speciifc person in my posts. The more you peel away layers of the onion, the more people you see that are just taking advantage of people, and its disgusting.

Do your due diligence and dont fall for the scams!


Monday, July 25, 2011

S&P video for Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

I wonder if the super gurus will talk about...


They were all over it saying things like "they should blow out, but you never know". LOL VERY GOOD! Thanks for clearing that up

I'm sure they won't mention it now that its crushed


Don't get scammed by listening to the hype!

When a monkey throws his poop against the wall, some of it sticks. With an easy gap fade, any high beta names will rock and roll and when ATM options are played you get the juice very quickly. Of course, if they lose, it turns into a swing trade or you don't hear about it any more. Just gross!

Check performance of the biggest scam artists and see for yourself. That is of course, if they even their performance listed. If they don't, what are they hiding?


Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

No gap fill

we fell just shy of filling the gap, but the gap down still gave a real nice opp for a long side trade today

Let's see if the bulls can try a run into the close, but Im not expecting much here


Gap fill is next

The gap fill is next here for an upside target

So far, the break of the overnight highs has proved to be a nice entry


Overnight highs

Watching them for resistance


Saturday, July 23, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Monday, July 25th, 2011

Pet Smart

Low volume coil. Watching for a break one way or the other


Private market deals

Be VERY careful listening to super gurus who are talking about the "secondary markets" this is a new scam they are running, in which they buy up private market shares and then pump and dump them to you.

Make them disclose what they own in the private shares market! Pump an dumps can happen on the major exchanges and the private secondary market!



Follow up

Well, I knew it would happen. I received some comments and questions regarding my post from yesterday regarding hedge funds. Here are some quesitons and some follow up.

1) Is there any fund in particular you are talking about in your post? No, it's just a general warning and should be applied to any and all hedge funds, trading pools, managed money accounts and the like. There are plenty of good people out there to manage your money if you choose, but unfortunately some bad apples who think they are invincible can spoil the bunch.

2) What if I already gave money to one of these nefarious cretins (words changed for emphasis lol)? Can you help me get it back? Even though I've helped some people get some money back that was robbed from them from over priced under delivered mentoring and such, I'm not an attorney, I just express my opinion and try to help traders stay away from trouble. If you have already given your money to a fund that you feel is not above board, the first thing I would do is request a withdrawal from them. If they don't allow you to withdraw your funds, contact a lawyer, but just be aware that if they took the time to set this up and know they are lying thieves, they will likely have expensive lawyers on retainer, and try to have you arrested and file injunctions against you and the like. Of course, despite telling everyone that they can't lose, they will go down in flames, but you might have to wait for your money anyway, which you will go to the lawyers anyway. If you can't afford a lawyer, contact the SEC, that will get the ball rolling much quicker.

3) Is there anyone you suggest to invest with? No, I'm not a financial advisor. Just do your DUE DILIGENCE on any and every one you are considering. DO NOT be embarrassed to ask the hard questions.

Here are some more things to consider before you give money to anyone to manage:

Transparency- Are you allowed to see where the fund stands at any time with just an email or phone call? Is there a reporting system on line for members? Don't get the brush off, you should be able to find out the true up to date performance at any time!

Lock up period- You should never agree to a lock up period longer than a few days. Those were all in fashion a few years ago, but if the money manager is doing short term trading, you should have access any time you like to withdraw your funds.

Finally, it;s important not to be embarrassed to ask these questions. It;s YOUR money, you deserve to know the answers to the questions that were talked about in these two posts. Don;t be a victim, find out beforehand.

Anything else, feel free to email me!


Friday, July 22, 2011

Before investing in a Hedge Fund or Trading pool..

Make sure you do thorough due diligence before investing in a hedge fund, trading pool or managed account. Remember, people thought Bernie Madoff was a good guy with a family and all that stuff too. Madoff was also big on charity, just fyi.

It's important to ask the people that are trading your money what their risk parameters are. Are they going to be day trading? Swing trading? Using derivatives?

Find out if they have ever had a fund before and ask how they did with it. While this is supposed to be revealed in the offering documents, double check.

Ask for performance, and ask for a FULL audit of what the managers have done in their personal accounts, not just thrown up as hypothetical results on blogs, websites and the like. Hypothetical don't pay the bills, unless you have a hypothetical mortgage and hypothetical car payments! you will be startled, amazed and shocked at the true performance of the cretins that are really scam artists. Be sure to check draw downs, margin calls and the like. If the fund takes a deep draw down, how will the managers bail YOU out?

Finally, check how much skin (their personal money) ALL the people running your money have in the game (the fund). If they don't have skin in the game, ask why not? If they don't have any, are you supporting these people? And if they do have money but choose no to put it all in, ask why? If the fund is so great why aren't they all in? Are they just taking a shot with your money? Why are they now opening a fund? Have they always ran a fund or is it something just to raise some quick cash at your expense? Where is your money being traded? Are you paying higher commissions just so the fund mangers can get a kickback from the broker they are using? That's devious and nefarious.



It should be an interesting weekend|main5|dl2|sec1_lnk2|80463


Two of the super gurus top choices for death.

I hope no one believed the hype and followed these fools blindly.

You will never hear about these shorts again, until the next time they need to raise some quick cash and pump out a new service.


Briefing Trader

Have you checked out Briefing Trader yet?

Some super gurus are likely getting all their plays from there and saying that they are original. They dont use their own name so as not to get caught, but it's not hard to figure out!

Go right to the source! This is NOT an affiliate link, I dont get paid if you sign up, I just want you to know the TRUTH, it will be refreshing change from what you are used to if you are following these super gurus.

See for yourself and save money by not being front run or getitng a worse price due to the delay!


Forced continuity, be VERY careful

Forced continuity refers to signing up for something that is supposedly free, but if you don't cancel in time, you have to pay. It entails giving your credit card information in order to get free access to something, and then you get slammed into paying for something you don't want just because you forgot to cancel.

It's the highest form of low lifeness, but its what many of these scam artists do in order to support their business and gambling habits. They make you sign up to high priced services (where you can get a car for the money you are paying) or low priced newsletters and such so that they slip under the radar and you dont notice the charges. This has paid for more houses on country clubs, sushi, and private schools than you can imagine, and its just plain wrong.

Recurring billing is not an issue, as many people feel subscriptions keep things running smoothly with no interruption in service, but offering a free trial and then slamming you into a program is downright scummy.

Did you expect anything else from these people?

REFUSE TO BE SCAMMED! if you feel you are being put into a forced continuity program, contact the FTC immediately and they will help you resolve any complaints and put these scum out of business.


It's really easy for the super gurus

It's so easy for the super gurus to get in when the market is going higher. But they SEVRERELY struggle when the market isnt going striaght up, and it's been proven, just look at their track records. And if they dare show you their personal records, oh my goodness will you be surprised at how these liars dont practice what they preach

Trading isn't get rich quick. its a busienss nad it needs to be treated like one.



LOL! It's amazing how desperate people are to hang on to their scams!

Now I've seen everything!


OK, I was off by a little

We dipped a little below the 34.50 number on the ES, but we did get a nice reversal off of that zone

Overnight highs are main resistance to watch


The biggest pile of horse poop

I just gave away 10 minutes of my life reading the biggest horse poop of my life. I'm glad I havent eaten lunch yet, because I would have puked up the greatest sandwich ever!

PLEASE! I know that many of you who fall for this scam artist's nonsense also read this blog. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY OF IT FOR A SECOND, ITS ALL LIES TO GET YOUR MONEY.

Business is business. You pay people for information, but draw the line there. Don't let ANYONE con you into thinking they are a great person when they are the farthest things from it and only focus on how they can scam you out of more money. If there is no performance to back up the hype, do not pay any more!

These people have NO SHAME! They reference people that they disowned and abused, and use them to make you feel sorry for them. They are the ultimate users and they will use you too until you are drained, and then they will BLAME YOU. I've seen it done too many times! DONT FALL FOR THE SCAM!

It's just a game folks, the actions of these scumbags speak much louder than the words they write.


The great news is that it wil all be over soon. Some moves are in play and they will probably be shut down in a matter of months. They won't be able to hurt anyone for a while, but they always find a new way!




I'm watching 1334.50, which was an area of support yesterday

This is basis the S&P futures


Small gap

Small gap, but we did have a first push lower here, so I;m stlaking this for an entry if we get a setup


Thursday, July 21, 2011

S&P 500 video for Friday, July 22nd, 2011

How come they never tell you when they are losing

It's easy when we go straight up to pick any calls isn't it?




Stock Market Trading Watch List for Friday, July 22nd 2011

Breadth slowly dripping

Only +1700s now, which is still strong, but off the highs.



Ouch, no mention by the super gurus on that one, even though they recommended it for free!


One more push to come?

We look like we have a little pennant setup here

Let's see if the buyers will bid it up into the close


Highs in?

The highs may be in, but breadth hasn't made enough of a move to confrim that the highs are in for sure.

Price action showing rejection here.


Don't get scammed when choosing a broker!

If you are following a recommendation from a super guru or his henchmen regarding a broker, make sure you are doing your due diligence.

Many of these scumbags have paid money to lawyers to start fraudulent lawsuits and persecute those that express their opinion, but they don't take the simple steps to ensure that they are following the directives from the NFA, SEC or FINRA.

If they are getting paid from a broker, whether it be stock, options, futures or Forex, they must disclose the relationship in "easy to understand" language.

Some of these cretins got away with murder a few years ago, getting their siblings, in laws or best buddies to be registered while they were paid under the table. Thanks to some people stepping up and making complaints, I'll bet that they are now under the watchful eye of many of the regulatory commissions.

Here's a way to check to see if any of the people that are "just telling you who they prefer" are really getting paid for you doing trades at these brokers. They then will call a crazy amount of trades so that win or lose, they still make money on you before you wise up. While highly illegal, these idiots think that an insurance policy and a half assed opinion from a horrible attorney will keep them out of trouble. Good luck with that!

P.S. Be especially careful with Forex. The way that it is setup, these clowns actually make money when you LOSE, so they are rooting against you and may give poor advice so that they make money. this applies to even the ones that act all nice and helpful. Nice, huh?


NFA (this is where you check FOREX as well):

Look up your favorites by name and see how they are preaching one thing, but doing the other. You will be surprised at how scummy these people can really be. Charging you for services, but then looking to get paid as your broker too? Sounds duplicitous to me.

Be safe and don't fall for the scams! If you feel you have been mistreated, report the deviants right away, you will be helping many people before they get scammed themselves!


1st hour highs

The first hour highs are holding for now

Breadth is still nice and firm, but don;t get suckered in here, be sure to wait for confirmation


First hour in

Now we'll see if the bulls are for real here.



Breadth is pretty strong at +2k, so Im going to watch for a pattern, not going to just randomly take a stab up here on the short side

So far, no trigger set up, but as I said in the last post, I am seeing rotation


Watching this up here

I'm starting to see some rotation, could offer a shorting op up here

The first half hour break was to the upside, let;s see if the first hour range gets a break that way as well.


Wednesday, July 20, 2011

S&P video for Thursday, July 21st, 2011

Stock market Trading Watch List For Thursday, July 21st, 2011

Still around!

I got some nice emails regarding my crappy day post.

Im glad that it helped some of you, and to the one person who said I deserved it Þ to you!

I was up until 6AM working on some projects, so I missed what turned out to be a nice day, as it followed the script pretty nicely. I slept in and hung with the kids, but I'll be back in fornt of the screen on Thrusday.

Videos will be posted within the next 1/2 hour

I hope your trading went well today


S&P 500 Video for Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Not a bear among them

I just read 20 pieces on AAPL, and there is not a bear among them

Tomorrow if it poops the bed, I wonder how many will come out screaming that it was obvious

By the way, I'm not "predicting" that it's headed lower tomorrow, I just love how the perma bears a few weeks ago are all cheering the praises of AAPL and tech. The loudest ones were screaming "RENN is a BUY!" and "AAPL is a SHORT!" and "we are in serious trouble!" and they leave a herd of sheep slaughtered in the aftermath as they couldn't read the stock market trends if they had Cliff notes.

Be careful, you can get hurt following these hucksters, no matter how many times they modify their facebook pages and blogs to make it appear that they have never lost a trade in their life.

And if you think it's me with an axe to grind, get real. Go do a search on twitter for Apple and see how many got burned or are telling it like it is about these scoundrels.


New highs

The S&P futures take out their highs from the day session by a tick as AAPL re opens and trades to 405 for a second or two


28.6 Billion in revenue for AAPL

Beats earnings and revenues

What a shocker! LOL

S&Ps spiked on the re open but have settled down since then and are only up around 1.5 points from the close


AAPL halted

Awaiting earnings


A crappy day

Can't shake the crappiness of the day off, so I'll write about it.

I started the day off well, I passed on the fade and took some trades off the divergence at highs early on.

Then I got stubborn, and didn't see that the President was set to speak, so I shorted anticipating a breakdown. As soon as the trade started to creep against me and I found out about the President speaking, I should have immediately gotten out and took the small loss, but I held through, scalped around the position, and wound up not gaining any ground as the market kept going up in my face.

Classic trend fighting like a complete chump.

My only consolation was that I kept it small, and Ill be back to fight another day.

What I hate more than losing is losing because I broke my rules. Losing is part of the business, but ignoring the rules should not be. I'm NOT happy right now. If I followed my rules, maybe I lose later on, but maybe I wind up staying flat and booking my profits that I had earlier instead of sacrificing them in the name of stroking my ego and trying to pick a direction without confirmation. I don't suggest that as a trading plan to build a business off of, but hey, maybe that's just me.

Anyway, I would love to go hit the punching bag, but I might break a fingernail. Thank goodness there's no ice cream in the house or I would be freezing my brain right about now.

Time to go play with the kids, that always cheers me up!



uh oh, getting peppered here off earnings!


Close at highs or pull the rug?

Tough to call for a rug pull with breadth this strong, but we've seen some "into the close" dips on strong days as of late

Not much to lean against here and can't blindly short this breadth, but something to keep in mind


Stealth flag on the Euro

The stealth bear flag on the Euro has been confirmed here

If it plays out to it's full measurement, look for 1.4075 to be tagged

If not, then we can get a comeback trade that can lead to a nice bounce, and it should take the S&P with it


If the Euro firms up

If the Euro can actually get firm it may help the ES pop


75 to go

75 minutes to go before the market is closed for the day.

We are seeing a strong move in the market here.

Breadth is nice and strong, the VIX is losing ground

The last pullback came down to perfect support and held like a champ

The TICK just diverged on the last high but so far we are not pulling back

Pivots to watch are 1317.50, 1316.25 and 1311 on the downside

On the upside 1325 could be a magnet


Euro resistance

1.4123 and this is basis the Futures


EURO/S&P sync

Lately the Euro an S&P have been syncing up good enough to use one to confirm the other

Today, not the case


EC, 6E whatever your platform calls it

The is Euro setting up in a stealth bear flag here on the 5 minute chart. First target is the 1.4075 level, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Support below that would be the low of the day


Right to support

1317.50 support so far has been tested and held

Bull flag or highs in? I think I already guessed at the highs being in, didnt I?

The Euro is getting a little smushed here, but it's still net + on the day for the day. dollar firming up bit here


Really pissed

I'm really pissed I misread that earlier market action. Completely my fault for trying to get a read before a news event, but still, it just makes me feel like a rope a dope

1311 is still the line to watch on the downside, but it's not setting up to get there anytime soon



First support is 1317.50, followed by 1316.25



GLD is Getting stomped a little bit here, down 1.1%


I was definitely leaning the wrong way

Was leaning on the short side and got caught ahead of the President

Starting to see volume clues that a pullback is coming, but it may not be a big one

Not sure if we rip it up the rest of the day, but breadth is almost +1600, not something to just brush off as neutral!


Break of highs but...

Quick rejection here after the break of the highs. No sell off yet, but it doesn't look like anything being said is ground breaking

The short interpretation: it's going to get resolved sooner than later


Retest of highs coming up

Let's see what we do when we get there


President set to speak at 1:30

Announcement that President Obama will be speaking at 1:30 and talk that a debt ceiling deal has been reached is lifting us here

No break of 1311 on that last dip, we'll see what happens after he speaks

Spike or dive?


Look at this sandwich!

wow, I am drooling



1311 seems to be the line in the sand for now

If we break below it, the stealth flag would then trigger



No confirmation of that stealth bear flag


What a stealth bear flag looks like

Chart of a stealth bear flag

As with any other pattern, confirmation is key


A small stealth bear flag here

Look for some more downside if this small stealth bear flag confirms, and a probable retest of the day session lows. From there, the gap starts to come into focus


Pulling in

The divergence has kicked in, and the market actually followed the script and consolidated before breaking through support

Look for a low into lunch, followed by another consoldation before the market makes up it's afternoon mind


Intra-day chat room

I am getting some questions about an intra-day chat room

That was a past life for me, and one I'm not ready to revisit just yet. Of course, that can change in an hour or two ;_

In the meantime, there is a great place to go during the trading day.

The investment is very low, as oppossed to other con artist run places that cost a car payment while still nickel and diming you to death. At Tidetraders, when you are a member, you get all the membership benefits

Rick, J-P and Witch Doctor are top notch traders and analysts, and actually know what they are doing! They don't guess at what will happen, and then deny it when it doesn't. They also have losers and they don't avoid them or take off posts from the site when they do lose. They understand it's part of the trading business, and they never claim they are perfect.

For $30 a month, it's a steal, and they have a free trial!

Full disclosure: I do not get a referal fee for sending people over, but I would like to know if you checked it out and what your thoughts were. I've sent hundreds over there already, and did actually have one complaint, along with many thank yous from people I saved from getting ripped off at other super deluxe, over promised and under delivered hype fests. Why the one complaint? Because everyone is different and has their own opinions, some that even conflict with my own!


Back to the 20EMA

We just traded back to the 20EMA here with an accompanying TICK flush

If we are going to break lower here, then we have will likely get a small consolidation before continuing


As soon as I mocked it....

The pullback came back again! still not much of one here yet, but the divergence is in place for one to happen


A whopper of a pull in! Not!

We went a total of 2.5 points from the high!

OK, I was being sarcastic, but it wasn't much of a pull in off of that divergence yet, but that doesn't mean we won;t get a bigger one after this retest up here



Picking up divergence up here

Breadth is +1600s, the gap fade didnt work (surprising since all the super hype is that gap fades are the holy grail) but it looks like we could get a pull in here, but who knows how deep it will be.


Monday, July 18, 2011

S&P 500 video for Tuesday, July 18th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

Dont believe the hype!

Man, the lies just never ever end!

Be very careful, and believe half of what you see and none of what you hear


Nice turnaround by the Euro

Going for unchanged>


Breadth stays horrid, but...

The market moved nicely off the lows

Not a lock gap fade off that open like some were preaching, but a good bounce just shy of my level


Hindsight is 20/20

I love how the super guru shorts calling for AAPL to be under 300 are now praising it's strength

Makes me sick, but they aren't fooling anyone, which is why they are taking desperate measures to keep the gravy train running



Got its target + a bonus out of the bull pennant

Everyone thinks they blow out, but if they do, who will be left to buy?


Back from lunch

Are the lows in? We came .75 shy of my target, but the last pullback was a higher low

breadth is still horrific at -2200

Im not going to start shorting aimlessly, but I am keeping my eye on 1300 to see if resistance comes in there


watching for a retest down

I don't think the lows are in here, based on the volume pattern

I'm flat and awaiting an opportunity here

1290.50 is still the downside level I'm keying on


Lunch time

Not having the greatest sandwich of all time today, but going to go have lunch with a friend

Are the lows in? maybe for the morning, but no evidence that says the lows are in for the day yet





Breadth is nasty yo!

A-D line is -2300 which is pretty nasty

Still looking for 1290.50, and if it holds, that may be a morning low


If the lows go with a push

So far, a lame bounce, but with the breadth reading, I'm not surprised

If the lows go with a push, watch 1290.50


On the bounce

1298.25 short term resistance here



The rotation at the lows has held so far on the retest

If breadth were better I'd be looking for a nice fat long side entry

As it stands now, I'm in wait mode

If there's a super duper reversal from here, there will be opportunity from continuation patterns



The next level to watch on the downside is 1290.25


Breadth is atrocious

Not the kind of readings you see a rally start from



AAPL in a 5 minute bull penant here

GLD hit our resistance level, no short trigger on it here, but bears (pun intended) watching



$TICKs saw -1300 on that last push down. Flush out anybody?

If the lows don't hold, 1290.50 would be next support


Bear flag get's its target

And a little bonus here

Starting to see rotation on the short term time frames


Had some volume

We just saw some volume on that push to a retest of the lows

I still don't think it's enough to start a reversal here and I still think we test 1295.25

Have I said that yet today?

I'm not trying to be tunnel visioned here, it just looks like a magnet.

So far we have come 2 ticks off the target

More selling here as we just sliced through the 95.25 number


Retest of lows is upon us

But will we hit my magic 1295.25?

Disclaimer: it's not a magic number!



I'm not looking to jump in at that level and back up the truck. It's just a reference area. I still want to see some climax selling and and expansion into that level


Next push should do it

The next push down should tag that 1295.25 level at a minimum

I'm stalking this little bear flag here on the tick charts


First signs

We have the first signs of rotation down here

Still think we need to finish up a retest of those 7/12 lows


Looking for support at...

I'm looking for 1295.25 at a minimum as support, that's the July 12th low. I still have not seen a downside flush out yet here

Breadth is horrific.


Getting a bounce

Breadth is still atrocious, and I havent seen short term climax selling yet, so Im still watching for a retest down to those 7/12 lows

I don't think the market cares right now! We are on the bounce here


Posts are on Pacific time

I keep trying to rest the time zone but it won;t stick, so we are on pacific time for the posts


there we go

Below the overnight lows here

1295.25 should now be tested


Overnight lows tested

Actually a little break below, but so far, it's holding steady


Next levels

1300.50, followed by 1295.25 become the next levels below the overnight lows

1295.25 is the level from the July 12th overnight session



1302.75 is next support, and THEN overnight lows

Right now we are possibly double bottoming at the day session low, but momentum suggests we get through it

we'll see soon enough as we are approaching 10AM


Overnight lows are now the downside target here


Fade starting to kick in

Initial gap down was met with more selling, but we are have no reversed and are headed for a key short term resistance level at 1308.25

We may get a retracement from there, but that will be key to watch for the next setup. Ultimate target is 50% of the gap fill, and then a full gap close, if the fade is going to play out


Friday, July 15, 2011

Watching Yesterdays Lows

It;s been a boring day so far, but I'm keeping in eye on yesterday's lows here. So far we have formed an inside day, but that might change this afternoon.

I'm not looking to short a break of yesterday's lows right off, I want to make sure that there is a way to quantify the risk, so Ill watch for a pattern to set up first.


S&P 500 Video for Friday, July 15th, 2011

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

More Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of J...

S&P Video For Wednesday July 13th, 2011

I made the rounds

I made the rounds of reading the scoundrels, and of course, the nonsense and lies were flying

"healthly for the market"
"We expected this"
"Decided to hold AA over earnings" (even n thoguh they claim they neevr hold over an earnings report)

Yes, it may be heathly for the market, but you werere just saying last week how we were going to crack new highs afer the Jobs report!

You expected what?

Ah, the hyporisy never ends! After preaching to never hold over earnings, it was a spur of the moment call.

By the way, if you think Im being hyper critical and claiming that I'm never wrong, spend some time and read this blog.

I'm wrong, and quite often at that. It's part of this business. There is NOTHING that works every time. Charts, fundamentals, past trends, etc.

Making bold predictions is great if no one gets hurt following them. When people get hurt because you are bragging and act like you've never been wrong then it's an issue. Especially when you are dead wrong and then crow that you were right.

I would much rather read someone that is consistent, right or wrong. And yes, that's what I strive to be, but I will sometimes get side tracked and screw up.

In the end , you have to make your own decisions. It's fine to read what others have to say, even me! LOL. Use what you read and formulate your own opinion.

I have a few people that read this blog and email with me that totally disagree with what I have to say soemtiems. Guess what? Sometimes they are right, and sometimes they are wrong.

Sounds like trading to me.


Looking for the gap fill here

Got a dip just below 1311, and then, bouncage!

I'm not convinced that we scream from here, but at this point, Im watching for a fill of the lap



No push under 1311, the closest we got was 1311.25

The lap should fill here, but if it does, it may offer a trade as well

Not chasing this, if it fails here will still be watching for a push below the 131l mark



131.50 basis the SPY is support to watch form the 20 period exponential moving average


Watching this push down here

So far, we trtried to fade straight off the open, ut it appears to be failing

Watching for a push below 1311


Ntot as deep as we were, but....

Good gap down here, let's see how we bounce

Giving this a few minutes here to see what sets up


Monday, July 11, 2011

S&P Video for Tuesday, July 11th, 2011

Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of July 1...

I can't wait to hear the spin tonight!

"Dips are buyable!"

"Positive bias!"

"Long AA into earnings!"

I'm sure it will be changed to "I thought something like this might happen, that's why we use stops ......."

ROFLMAOOOOO it never ends!

These nitwits are always late to the party!

Whats wrong with waiting to see how we act at Friday's lows, or seeing if there is any follow through from Friday's weakness. Instead, they say: let's gamble! Easy for them, it's not their money anyway and they will just charge you for another class or super deluxe list!

Get an education, but don't get scammed!



Sorry folks!

EMA is exponential moving average


$TICK got to -1200 last time

That suggests that we tag a new low here



Watching the DAILY 20EMAs on the S&P Futures and the SPY as possible support points


Sunday, July 10, 2011

S&P 500 video for Monday, July 11th, 2011

S&P video

Will be posted in the AM


Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of July 11th, 2011

Time To Quit Stock Trading?

Lately I've gotten some emails from traders regarding frustrations with their stock trading. Just when it was looking like we were going to rip it higher, Osama Bin Coward had justice delivered upon him, and we pulled back for several weeks. Then, just when it looked like we were going to break down, the market got a nice bounce, likely fueled by super deluxe short lists and my super secret indicator, as well as negative sentiment. We quickly got overbought, but rather than get a retest down, we squeezed and knocked the Bear's teeth down their throat.

So, is it time to quit stock trading? Despite what some will tell you, the market doesn't follow an exact script. That's why it's important to put the work in every single day, and follow a routine. This way, no matter what curve ball the stock market throws at you, at least you have a plan.

I hate to harp on it, but developing a trading plan and keeping the discipline are so important, much more important than any custom indicator or black box algorithm.

In the end, only you can decide if you should continue stock trading. Just keep in mind that if you are going to keep trading and just choose another financial market thinking that's the answer, every market will need the same discipline and trading plan. There are no shortcuts. If it were a easy as the super gurus say, then NO ONE would make any money.

Michael "tiny" Saul

Friday, July 8, 2011

What a week

Pain in the neck issue this AM, I just got back to look at the market

Well, the market is doing EXACTLY what I thought, if the open was 8:30! Hey, what's an hour between friends, right?

Horrible job numbers and the market slipped down the wall of worry, at least for now.

Is this push up over? It could be, but still using the 78.6% rule, it would suggest we eventually take out that Osama Bin Coward high. But here's a question: how many days are in an eventually?

Sorry for the extra dose of sarcasm today, it's been one of those weeks!

Here are some developments:

The new site is in beta, if your really want to see it and give me feedback, shoot me an email at tinymjs at gmail dot com.

I'm working on a "quick and dirty" Fibonacci video, because that's the topic I seem to get the most questions about. I should have that ready to go next week.

I've stopped doing Forex videos but will throw them into the one main video I do every night if there's a setup. for the best Forex videos check out my friend Andy Garcia at

That's all for now, I'm taking the kids to lunch. It sure beats dropping them with a random nanny any time!

Michael tiny Saul

S&P video for Friday, July 8th, 2011

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Final Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List For the Week Of ...

We may pull in a bit

I don't think we tank, but we may see a slight pull in into the close as profits are taken ahead of the Job reports

There's no trigger here, it's just an observation, and I could be dead wrong.

OK, so why am I even bothering to say it? Because there's nothing wrong with trailing a stop if long to protect profits.

Support is at 1349 if we did start to pull in


Previous highs should be seen

We are now above the line in the sand level that I have been speaking about over the last few days. this suggests that we retest the previous highs.

Overall volume is on the light side, but it's not stopping the bulls.

Job reports due out tommorow, more on that in tonight's video


Sloppy Trade

Sloppy trading ahead of Friday's Job reports

We are sitting right at previous resistance here on the daily chart.

Not much to do here but wait and see


Tuesday, July 5, 2011

S&P video

Will be posted in the AM


Management of the Stock Market Trading Watch List for the Week of July 4...

In the end....

As we know, in the end it won't matter if Portugal is downgraded or not

Just more news hype for now!


Lows tested, but not broken

Good hold by the bulls down there. See if it sticks


NO, I didn't expect this

Someone wrote me saying nice call on the volume divergence

Sorry, Id love to say I knew something like this would happen, but its not the case

Im not a fortune teller, unless its about my cholesterol rising


Euro gets its target

And a bonus!


New lows should be seen

1328.25 is the target below low of day


New reaction lows

By a tick so far on the Euro and S&P

Work done, or more to come?


Sharp Impulse

A sharp impulse on the Euro and the S&P, suggesting more downside after a pause


So much for those overnight highs being tested!

Hey, it's still early yet, but we'll have to shake off the Portugal downgrade news first



NEWS somewhere!


A little strange....

Down volume is still outpacing up volume here but not by very much.

This suggests that IF the overnight highs are tested, it could be a work done situation.

That changes if volume breadth improves.

A-D line is just under +200 here. Nothing big, but we just went green so not much to expect there yet.


New highs on the day

Above 1336 suggests that overnight highs will be broken


Watching the EURO here

May just be a fake out before higher prices, but looks like a little short term exhaustive move here


New reaction highs

Looks like new highs on the day is next



The TICK did make a new high on that last push up, but the 62% Fib held like a rock

Support at 1332.50


Off we go!

Bulls not waiting to digest their lunch as they try to bring us back to green here

62% Fibonacci level has now been tested and has so far held, but above this last high suggests a new day session high (1335.25), and above 1336 suggests a new all session high (1337.75)


New highs In TICK

And there is the new reaction high.

Gotta love that TICK!

Now let's see if we get a new high on the day


New Highs In TICK

The $TICK hit a new high for the day on this last little push

This suggests that we will trade above that last high, but we did just match it on the next 5 minute bar

Trade below 1331 suggests we try for 1328.25

Micro range today compared to some of the moves last week, that's for sure



We are at the 50% retracement of today's all session range


Here comes the push

Or at least the try for the push into Noon



Market trying to push up into lunchtime here, but will it do anything?

Failure here should bring the market down to it's lows, and then 1328.25, which is the 4th of July "shadow" session pivot low

The consensus from what I've been reading is that people are looking for that 1328.25 to lean against for longs, but maybe they all front ran it by a point.

for now, It's choppy out there, so I'm reading whatever I can find


So far, a nice orderly digestion

Nothing for the Bulls to be panicked about, as the market is digesting last week's big move on low volume

The bulls could come back as early as this afternoon, or they may want to wait a little bit longer, but base don last week;s momentum, at least a bit higher is expected


Euro Futures

1.4405 first target here, as they are below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing up


Saturday, July 2, 2011

The Market Climbs The Wall Of Worry

there's a tried and true saying about he stock market. It goes like this: "The market climbs a wall of worry"

Is there worry in the market? Let's see:

End of QE2? Check!

Another country or three in Europe talking about going under? Check!

Unemployment actually NOT getting better as previously stated? Check!

Housing still in the toilet? Check!

That all spells worry to me, and the market reacted appropriately, with a 5 day in a row pop who's size hasn't been seen in years.

I was certainly wrong a few times this week. While I didn't think we would fall out of bed, I was looking for a bit lower to be tested. I was looking for a bounce Monday for a number of reasons, the most prevailing being that there was so much negative sentiment out there. After we bounced a bit and quickly got overbought, I was looking for a retest back down and it never came. If you check the videos you can see that I definitely had a short side opinion, and thanks to respecting the triggers it only wound up costing a half unit loss, but more aggravating to me was no watch list trades to the upside as we got overbought pretty quickly and that kept me out of chasing the upside. Oh, that was only after 40 S&P points ago!

Do I think the rally is over? I don't know. I still believe that we form a range over the next few months rather than an all out screaming rally or decline. A pullback here is due, and depending on the breadth and volume of that pullback, it will go a long way in my analysis of the next move.

Michael "tiny" Saul

P.S. I also have a secret indicator. Hint: It's based on "never admit they are wrong" super gurus touting the death of the market. They are wrong a good 90% of the time, and when they get lucky it's all you hear. You will never hear them say "hey I got it wrong, sorry". They just keep on saying how they nailed it, and they delete blog posts and status updates so you can't see how wrong they truly are. When they start leaning one way, I know a reversal is due. They will usually catch the end of the move, not the start.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Where are the super bears?

Where are the super bears with their deluxe short lists?

What will be the excuse THIS TIME?



Checking in

The Bulls are romping once again

We are close to a level now on the SPY that if broken would suggest a full retest of the highs

This has definitely exceeded my expectations of a bounce, and the next pullback will be key here

Have a great weekend