Friday, April 29, 2011

Bull flag falls short

On Thursday, I mentioned the 60 minute bull flag on the Euro. The flag looked like it was going to hit a new high, but came a few ticks shy of the high put in early Wednesday morning. This sets up a potential "comeback" trade, which is a reversal of the trend. I'll have more on that in this weekend's FOREX video.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, April 28, 2011

FOREX trading Analysis for April 29th, 2011

S&P video for Friday, April 29th, 2011

Continued Management of the Stock Trading Watchlist for the week of Apri...

Looking like a 60 minute bull flag

The Euro looks like a 60 minute bull flag here

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

New lows a far

Not enough pressure to sell the Euro down here yet.

The Euro bears still have some work to do it appears.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Another test of lows for the Euro

Will the 4th time down be the charm?

Will there be a 4th time?

Watch out for traps.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Gold and Silver

New highs may be work done, but way too early to try and lean on the short side.

Notice the action up here, the mini rotatiton is a sign of lack of buying commitment. of course, with the way gold and silver have been trading, that may just be temporary.

I haven't changed my tune on gold and silver. I'm still stalking a spot for a correction to start from.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com


Small double bottom formed, but the bounce is stalling out already. Worth watching if it can get through the lows and stick. 60 minute chart showing a small topping formation, but it has to confirm, and it has to stick. I see so many trying to pick a top in this, or pick the bottom in the Dollar that it's more probable to lead to false moves and traps before asserting itself.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Super chop mode

It looked like for a minute there that we were going to go to new lows. The bears decided to go to lunch instead. Salmon time?

It's choppy out there, very easy to get cut up trying to zig when you should be zagging, or not doing anything.

We could be in for some movement in the afternoon, or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com


A-D line vs. SPY

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com


The ole Buck is trying to get a boucne here. Already reading people calling for a squeeze. How about not closing red to start and taking it from there?

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com


Below is a great piece about charity. Be VERY careful and do your due diligence before giving ANY money to charities. It's not all about the big charities though.

Many small charities are just formed for bragging rights, someone scratching their scabs or wanting to try to balance their life (good luck) after screwing over so many people. Most of these "boutiques" wind up not doing anything useful at all, and just wind up paying out fees to those that organzie and work for the charity. Many are also opportunists, jumping on the cause of the day, such as Hurricane Katrina, Haiti or Japan. Here's a great article on Haiti charity scams:

And one on Japan charity scams:

Are there legit charities out there? Of course, but like anything else you invest in, do your due diligence!

Opps, almost forgot. Here's the reason I wrote this post:

Read the whole article, but read point 6) about charity FRAUD a few times.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

FOREX Trading Analysis for Thursday, April 28th, 2011

Continued management of the Stock Trading Watchlist for the week of Apri...

S&P 500 video for Thursday, April 28th, 2011

OK, I'm saying it!

Contrary to popular sentiment, I'm going to be watching If gold and silver get to new highs. I will then be watching for a short side entry within a few days of hitting those new highs.

I wont be fading a certain level, but I feel that new highs may be one last gasp before a nice size correction.

I'm not a trend fader by any means, and I certainly wouldn't step in front of a runaway train, but new highs with divergences and a nice reversal pattern could be a good risk reward scenario.

The "we are buying $3 over spot for silver and $38 for gold" ads I've been seeing are just more signs that sentiment is leaning way too far in one way. Add in some key cycle dates, and the ingredients of a reversal are there. Of course, my sister in law tried to make cream puffs last Sunday, and they came out atrocious (sorry!), so just the ingredients themselves does not make a cream puff, or a reversal. In other words, who cares what my opinion is, what the cycle dates are, or how big the bullish sentiment is. Wait for a signal and use proper size and stops!

All the best in your precious metals collecting!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Continued Management of the Stock Trading Watchlist for the week of Apri...

Do your due diligence!

Please make sure you are doing your due diligence on everything, not just your trades.

First things first: Are you doing your due diligence on me? Do you watch the videos that I've been posting for the past several weeks? Are you sure I'm not changing my tune, taking down videos or blog posts because I was wrong? Many of the so called super gurus do just that. They release super hyped up under delivered fake results padded lists and classes, only to leave you empty handed and feeling for lack of a better word, violated.

If you have to ask yourself "Is this guy or gal ever wrong? They only post winners and always say they were right" then you should RUN the other way. NO ONE IS EVER RIGHT 100% of the time. I have been fortunate enough to be taught by some of the best traders in the business, and they will be the first ones to tell you a 70% win rate is great. Guess what? It's still enough to make real good money in the trading business. I've yet to meet ANYONE who was 100%. Sorry, it's just not out there.
It's not your win rate, it's your money management, but more on that in a different post. It doesn't matter what someone else makes or does, it matters what value they give you, that's what you are PAYING them for. The information, analysis or advice.

Madoff should have taught us something about investing in hedge funds, money management firms and giving money to so called experts. Check to see if these people ever managed money before and how they did. Before you invest 1 dollar, have the documents looked over by someone. A few dollars to a lawyer can save your life savings!

Before investing in ridiculously high priced software or seminars, find out what's included for your money. I'm not talking as an outsider here. I've unfortunately paid a ridiculous amount of money for indicators, and have taken over hyped seminars that were completely worthless. It sucks! Do you get training with the software? Is the seminar guarenteed to produce results? If you don't like it, can you get your money back?

If you are looking for the hook here where I say everyone else sucks but I'm great, you missed the point of the post. There are PLENTY of quality educators, chat rooms, newsletters, indicators, hedge funds, money management firms, seminars, and other trading tools out there at your disposal. Take trials. Ask questions. Are they answered in a timely manner? How is the customer service? Dig deep into the product. Do your research. I know it's just easy to believe the hype, become starstruck and just roll the dice, but this is a BUSINESS, not a game or a hobby. Do your due diligence!

That's it for now. I'd like to hear any comments you might have.

Have a great trading day on Wednesday!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P video for April 27th, 2011

FOREX trading Analysis for April 27th, 2011


Market screaming and at new highs here. That little stutter step from last Monday almost feels like it never happened

Glad I used the charts and didn't release my super duper deluxe short list too early! Although I'm sure I could back out of it now. ;)

We are chopping around here as the early big move gets digested. The A-D line is strong, and unless that changes and the turn around Tuesday folks step in we look higher in the afternoon. As of now the 15 minute SPY chart looks like a bull flag.

Just becasue we are at the new highs doesn't mean it's time to get complacent and forget to use stop losses. Quite the contrary, the more froth that is present, the tighter I like my management to be.

All the best in your trading,

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

S&P video for Thursday, April 21st, 2011

FOREX analysis for April 21st, 2011

Continued management of the Stock Watchlist for the week of April 18th, ...


Not that high here. It is the second day of Passover, which may be keeping things under wraps, but light volume on the upside is NOT a good long term thing for the Bulls.

Of course, being over Friday's highs is.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Guessing at the reaction to AAPL Earnings

AAPL's daily 50 day moving average is holding tight for now ahead of it's earnings release, due today after the bell.

Despite what you might read or hear from the self proclaimed "never lose gurus", there's no way to predict what will happen after the numbers are reported. I can show hundreds of stocks where the chart looked great into their earnings report, and the company missed, and vice versa. Those that want to guess what will happen to a stock after an earnings report are pure gamblers, and belong in the horse race book.

If you want to trade a volatility play such as a straddle or combination into an earnings report, then that's a different story. That strategy does not pick a direction, but rather it predicts that range expansion will occur. With the amount of volume now being traded in the options market, the edge is nowhere near what it was even a few years ago. That doesn't mean that opportunities can't be seized and exploited, you just need to do the work. I'm sorry, but there are NO shortcuts!

Unless you have unlimited money to keep throwing at your account if you blow up, there's a a safer way. Wait for the report, then wait for the dust to settle. Afterwards, there will be plenty of time to do your directional analysis.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com



Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com


Instead of sleeping, I'm watching the market trade higher here overnight

As of right now, we are up almost 17 points on the S&P Futures

A big gap can offer a nice opportunity for an opening fade, at least for a trade. from there? Aha, the big question!

Depending on the reaction to the gap, there could be a nice AM consolidation to take advantage of. Remember, trend days start with an impulse, and a big gap is one of the best forms of impulse there is.

No use in guessing here, but remember to remain flexible, as setups could appear on either side.

Back in 4 hours or so with an updated view

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

FOREX Analysis for Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

Continued Management of the Stock Watchlist for the week of April 18th, ...

S&P video for April 20th, 2011

New website getting ready for launch

A little break from the videos to tell you about an exciting development.

Many have asked me when I was going to be rolling out my new website and nightly newsletter. I've had a few stepping stones along the way, but I am happy to say that the site should be launched by May 1st, or just a little bit thereafter.

I'm finishing up the logo and the website design with my programmer, and for now I'm keeping the name under wraps so hags, vultures or curmudgeons don't squat on any domain names. Sorry for the slap of negativity, but with what has transpired over the past 18 or so months, I cant help being a pessimist and can't be too careful with things.

Here's what will be available on the website:

A nightly newsletter that will go over the best trade setups in the stock, options, ETF, futures and currency markets.

A weekly newsletter, for those that aren't active day to day traders.

A members only online community where you will have access to me and other traders.

A catalog of on demand videos going over various techniques that will assist you in your trading. No gut or feel or made up chart patterns.

A nightly members only video talking about the market.

Just for registering to the site, you will receive:

Access to core educational videos (no need to pay for these anywhere else):

Introduction to online trading
Money management
Charting basics
An introduction to options
Setting up a trading business plan
Gaps, Laps and Traps, a guide to trading the first hour

You will receive my e-mail alerts which will include free videos as well as tons of powerful information delivered to your e-mailbox. No hype or garbage about how great I am, because if I have to tell you, I can't be that good. Besides, everyone already knows I'm a cool guy, don't they?

My new book on FOREX trading that will be made available before I put it up for sale.

A new blog open to anyone that takes the time to register.

I can't guarantee you that my analysis will only lead to winners, but I won't relentlessly brag and then not have a track record on the site. I can't guarantee that you will ever get used to my accent.

Here's what I will guarantee:

NO ONE from my company WILL EVER call you from a boiler room out West, representing that they work for me and try to sell you some over-hyped, over-promised, under-delivered "mentoring" package where the price is based on how much room you have on your credit cards or HELOC. Their goal is to leave you embarrassed and ashamed, an act of only the lowest of scum. Those people that hard sell and lie, and the people that give them your information should be arrested and their assets seized.

Ok, enough of the negative! Let's get the videos on the site!

I'll post the videos soon. In the meantime, feel free to send me an e-mail with any questions, comments or just to say hi.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

S&P video for April 7th, 2011


Looks like a head and shoulders forming

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Further management of the Stock Watchlist for April 4th 2011

FOREX Analysis for April 7th, 2011

OK, time to get Charlie Sheen into a post

So there I was, taking a break frorm writing my new report on turbo charging your trading business, and I flopped down in front of the tube and put on F/X (I don't know why). On comes an ad with Charlie Sheen and the other guy advertising Two and a Half Men re-runs. The ad said something like F/X is 2 1/2 times better or whatever.

Here's what I don't understand. At the end they showed the viewing schedule. It said "weeknights and Thursdays at blah blah blah". Since when did Thursday become a day of the weekend? I always thought weekdays were M-F. Did I miss an entire change in the weekend dynamic? Aren't weekends Saturday and Sunday? Has a new category of day been invented for Thursdays and Fridays?


Michael "Winning" Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P video for Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Some FOREX Analysis for the week of April 4th, 2011

Stock Watchlist for the Week of April 4th, 2011

Market Wizards

Three of the most influential books in my trading career were the Market Wizards trilogy by Jack Schwager.

If you are looking for a book that will reveal how to make 10 million pips a day, or a ghost written book about how to rock and roll your retirement, you should look somewhere else. If you are looking for books that will just all out inspire you and make you want to prop your eyelids up with toothpicks so you can finish them in one sitting, these are for you.

The books are interviews with some of the top traders at the time. And guess what? some of them are still the top traders.

With the exception of a few stories, these traders have a lot in common. It's not the instruments they trade, and it's surely not the analysis methods. Some will say that technical analysis doesn't work, while others are quick to point out that it's the only way to trade. And some combine both technical and fundamental analysis to come up with their strategy.


Here are my favorite interviews from each book, but I'm sure I'm forgetting some:

Market Wizards:

Marty Buzzy Schwartz: In case you haven't read my review on his book, go here

William O'Neil: Founder and editor of IBD

Paul Tudor Jones: One of my idols

Tony Saliba: Just an all out inspiring story of how he was basically out of the business before turning it around

New Market Wizards:

Linda Bradford Raschke: One of my mentors, and one of the best traders still in the business

Victor Sperandeo: 2B tops and 1,2,3s were some of the earliest chart pattens I learned

Stanley Druckenmiller: One of my favorite interviews

Stock Market Wizards:

Steve Cohen- Anyone ever heard of him?

Mark Cook: Another one that was almost done, and came back with a vengeance

Every book is a fantastic read cover to cover. Schwager does a great job
Here they are:

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders

Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders

Feel free to contact me with any thoughts and opinions on these.

Michael tiny Saul

tnymjs at gmail dot com

Friday, April 1, 2011


I'm excited to announce that my new FOREX e-book will be available for download shortly.

FOREX is a great market, and one that all traders should at least take a look at.

The book will be an introduction to the currency market and it will be free for all to download.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Final management video for the week of March 28th, 2011