Friday, December 30, 2011


Yes, I know it's early, but I want to take this time to wish everyone a very happy and healthy new year.

2011 was a day traders dream, and a swing traders nightmare, and in the end, they closed us almost EXACTLY flat on the S&P 500.

There should be plenty of opportunities in 2012, so take the three days to rest and recharge, and get ready to hit the ground running.

I want to take this time to thank everyone who has supported the blog, as well as the Stock Market Trends X website. I appreciate each and every one of you, and feel blessed that you actually listen to what I have to say, even though I don't reign any markets, charge ridiculous prices for undelivered nonsense, or beg for happy birthdays and then tell you how overwhelmed I am by them.

There are some great things being rolled out in the new year, and I can't wait to share them with you.

Once again, feel free to contact me at or with any questions or comments you may have.  I welcome and respond to them all personally.

Michael tiny Saul

It's the last day of the year, and the gap...

is taking an early weekend!

As I'm typing this, there is NO gap, but hey by the time we open we may see an itsy bitsy one

I'll wait for the first move, and see if we run into support or resistance.  If it's a dead day, I'll be doing more exciting things, like cleaning my office.


Thursday, December 29, 2011

S&P Video For December 30th, 2011

Stock market Trading Watch List For Friday, December 30th, 2011

Next levels to watch

S&P 1500 Tick chart, all sessions.  Purple line's are the current channel we are in, greenish lines are previous resistance levels from yesterday, and the gold line is the 62% Fibonacci retracement using yesterday's high to low swing.

We are right below the thick of resistance, but if we clear it, it suggests 1260 next.


Coil break

The coil broke to the upside, and is now grinding it's way above resistance

Breadth is +1300s and the $TICK has barely gotten below the zero line

I'm sitting here waiting for failure like a complete dope, instead of going with the move


Nice looking coil

The overnight session has formed a nice looking coil, with a {whopping} 7 point range.  I'm looking at it on the 4500 Tick chart, but you can see it on other time frames as well.

The move from this pattern will be the first trade I'll be watching for today.


Tuesday, December 27, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

No Stock Market Trading Watch List video for Wednesday, December 28th, but...

There will be no Stock Market Trading Watch List for Wednesday, December 28th, 2011.  The market was a choppy, light volume mess on Tuesday, but here are some highlights:

The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) tested it's daily50 day moving average and rejected it.

The Russell 2000 ($RUT) was the leader, up .47%.

The Dow did trade on Tuesday!  Super tight range, smallest I've seen in a while at just a bit above 58 points.

GLD and SLV broke down out of their respective bearish patterns, but didn't go anywhere far.

AAPL continued higher, as did GOOG.

V formed a reversal candle after hitting another new high.

ARIA busted it's consolidation to the upside.  Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

MDVN still churning but holding

HSTM looks like it's forming another wind up pattern here

HANS not doing much

CMG broke the consolidation pattern we talked about in Tuesday's video, up 1.1% but didn't go very far above the breakout point.

RIMM tagged 15, but eased off a bit to close at 14.86, still good for a 6.86% gain.

Can we see some range expansion on Wednesday?  Yes, it's possible, but we could continue to chop it out into year end as well.

There will be an S&P video.

Have a great trading day on Wednesday.


Tuesday, December 27th 2011

The bog will likely be dark for the first few hours of trade, because I'm going to be sleeping in.

Late night, and want to get a full 7 before I but anything at risk


All About The January Effect

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Friday, December 23, 2011

Calling it a day/week

Hate days like this, becuase if you lean wrong early, it's hard to get yourself out of a hole as volatility gets sucked dry and then you are miserable for the 3 day weekend.

Volume is light as expected, and while I "woulda, shoulda, coulda" grabbed the fade for 3 points (if I was lucky enough to get out at the lows and in near the open), being flat is good enough.

I'd like to wish all my readers a very Merry Christmas and/or (some celebrate both) a Happy Hanukkah.


Gap for Friday

It's not a big gap, but it does meet the requirement for me to watch for a fading op.

IM going to watch for a push higher first and then we will see what's what.


Thursday, December 22, 2011

S&P 500 video for 12/23/11

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, December 23rd, 2011

Another interview with Mike Swanson

Mike Swanson was gracious enough to do another interview with me.  And this was after he did the first one!  Amazing I was asked back!

Check it out, but first sign up for Mike's free newsletter here: Free Newsletter Sign Up

Sorry about the quality of my side, I need a new freaking microphone!


Gap up

Im watching this gap up for a fading op. its big enough to watch for one right off the open, but I'm likely going to watch for a push higher first to get short. If I miss it, which it looks like I might, I'll go to the next setup. As Im finishing this, we are falling away a little bit. tiny

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

S&P 500 video will be posted....

The S&P 500 video will be posted before the market open on Wednesday.

So far, there is not much overnight action, but I want to see if anything happens when Europe opens


Waitresses Christmas Wrapping FULL VERSION + Lyrics

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

This has been catching the minor cycles

Don't know if it will get this one though, we are looking to fight through it here.

If it did catch it, could be a nice place to watch for a buying op


Next time zone to watch

We have barely budged on any pullbacks, as the Bulls are pressing their agenda here and not giving anything up.

We saw an early on push to get piled on, and we may again see that in the last half hour as imbalances get worked into the close.


Have we started the January Effect?

The super gurus may have you believing that that we've started the January Effect, unless of course we go lower and then they will tell you "you have to time it" or some other BS excuse they will use. You'll never get a straight answer form these cowards, only lies after the fact.

For me, the January Effect on individual stocks starts closer to the end of the year, and carries over until the first few days of the new one. Small caps as a group tend to outperform large caps starting the middle of the month.

If the pullback low was yesterday, waiting a few more days will definitely  cost something, but rules are rules


Setup for later on

We've had a huge push up off the opening, and we continue to stair step higher here.  We saw some "piling in" early on, but that's since calmed down

Volume is coming in at a good pace, above yesterday's lame turnover, and the best in over a week (with the exception of OE day).  Breadth is strong at +2300 and gaining.

Whether this is a one day wonder, or just a dead rat bounce remains to be seen, and isn't relevant.  For now, fading this is dangerous.

The best scenario for the bulls here would be a pullback and consolidation over lunch and into the last hour. This would give the late comers a chance to get on board an afternoon breakout without having to chase.  It would also give the laggards of this move a chance to catch up.    

"Watching for a pullback" is certainly not enough to base a short on, and the bulls may decide to push the issue and not just let us drift lower, but this scenario if it plays out could be a nice opportunity for a trade later on.


The strongest type of market

We are "leveling up" today. Tthis is where we pop and then consolidate, only to pop again, and consolidate at the next level.

Sure, we are short term overbought here, but the A-D line is +2300 and the $TICK has barely gone below 0

Until this changes, I'm not looking for any more shorts, even for a scalp

It's tough to just close your eyes and buy up here, I get it, but waiting for a setup in the direction of the trend is better than trying to fade it.


Next levels to watch

Here are the next levels to watch:

Resistance: 1233.50.  A break above this suggests a move to 1243.50
Support: 1224.  A solid break below here (not just a little spike test) suggests a move to 1218.25

These are basis the S&P 500 March Futures contract


First hour

The first hour is in the books, and while we did break outside the range, it hasn't stuck, yet.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure we get a gap and go scenario, which is one where we trend higher all day, but that doesn't mean we can't gap and hold, and then make a move later on in the session.

I tried my hand at a counter trend trade and got it slapped, so now, it's wait and see for me.


Hate it when a plan doesnt come together!

Yes, I've been calling for a holiday bounce for a few weeks.  Yes I was looking for downside early in the week.

Today however, was the crucial day. I was looking for early weakness to find support for a nice wholesale low risk buying opportunity  Instead, we gapped up big and went higher.  I'll now watch for a continuation pattern.

The whole weakness first scenario now goes out the window, as failure from here would not be bullish.

It is what it is, I can't fight it or change it, but I can still complain about it, that's why I have the blog!


Bring on the dog pile

Big gap up, NO fade, and now?  The upticks are getting bought as late comers are trying to join the party.

Nice pick up in volatility, but I still don't think we trend higher all day long.

We should see a pull in in this volatility, if not price after the first 30-60 minutes

Breadth is +2250 and even though it's early, it should be respected.

Not watching for a fade until the lows are taken out, and even then doubtful Ill be watching for a big one


A nice fat gap up

A nice big fat juicy gap up to start Tuesday's session.

I will be watching for a fade

Could we see a gap and go scenario?  Yes, and I will be watching for early clues of that taking shape.

For now, I'll be watching for a fade.


Monday, December 19, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

BAC under $5

Yet another potential juicy January Effect stocks to watch

So far, here's a raw list, and NO, I'm not looking to just randomly grab these, there is actually a method to the trend:


Class soon, or at the worst, I'll do a video series.


No gap fill, and we are at support

We are sitting right above the late day consolidation from Friday

Supportive for now, but we have a topping pattern in play here from overnight action moving into today's open

Who will win? We'll see shortly


Gap up

Not a huge gap up, but big enough to watch for a fading op.


Sunday, December 18, 2011

4 Stocks to watch for a move higher into year end

Here are 4 charts of stocks with good looking patterns that are showing good relative strength.  Should we trade higher into year end, or even just get the bounce after some weakness here that I'm watching for, these could be the leaders.

Besides that little false start, this looks like a stealth bull flag

WARNING: This only 50-day averages just under 250k shares a day

Can it hit 50 into year end?

Going for a late year breakout?

While these could go higher without the broad market participating, I always like to have the "wind at my back", meaning I would prefer to have a move higher in the overall market.   


Stock Market Trading Watch List for Monday, December 19th, 2011

Friday, December 16, 2011


Nice gap down, one to watch for a fading op, but not just a "close your eyes" and pray trade.  Watch it for a trigger off a pattern


Gap up

Looking to fade this gap up today


Thursday, December 15, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, December 16th, 2011

S&P 500 video for Friday, 12/16/11

Snap back rally?

It doesn't look like a snap back rally is in play since we are below the first half hour range

This doesn't mean we tank, and with breadth +1000s as I type this, the downside has it's challenges.

We'll see if we get the lap fill at 1206.26 basis the S&P Futures and take it from there


Philly Fed at 10

Tight range ahead of the Philly Fed due out at 10AM eastern

So far, no fade of any measure, as we held the lows of the 8:30 AM candle at 1215.75.

That's short term support, and overnight highs at 1220.50 is short term resistance

These are basis the March S&P Futures.


S&P 500 video for Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

S&P video for Thursday

Will be posted in the AM

I want to see how we trade overnight


Stock Market Trading Watch List For Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Jane Jefferson Starship

Lunch report

Nathans Angus Beef hot dogs on Martins potato buns with brown mustard and (cold) sauerkraut, topped off with a Clausen sandwich stacker pickle.  awesome!

I was once sued for like 30 million for talking about what I eat for lunch so I have to be careful LOL


Too much leaning on one side

It's not enough to call a rally from, but I'm seeing way too much leaning on one side of the market here.

Everyone is calling for the Euro to get crushed even more, and for the market to get taken out and shot.

The reports of Santa Claus skipping us this year are premature.  We aren't even at the half way point for the month yet. The deeper we stretch down, the better chance in my opinion of getting a bounce.

I'll leave the bottom picking for the daring, but I'm not ruling out an afternoon mark up today.  1215.50 basis the S&P Futures is still my line in the upside sand


No idea if we get a bounce

I HAVE NO IDEA if we get a bounce, but if we do, watch RTH, it's showing some relative strength.



RENN and DANG are two stocks that got the living crap beat out of them this year.

They are perfect stocks to watch for a January Effect type move, but will need a proper tactic for entry.

Two for your list, more to come.



Don't pay ridiculous prices for over guaranteed, under delivered, super hyped January Effects classes.  You will be SORELY disappointed when you see that the plays given are stolen from other services and no real information on the "trend" is given.  These super gurus don't have an original thought in their greedy heads.

I've already received messages regarding a free play that was given out at one of these hype fests to get you to sign up and how it was obviously front run and pumped and dumped, trading to lows today.  I wish I would have gotten it early to call it a short as that turned out to be the easiest money in the world!  I wasn't there the day it was given out, I had something much more important to do that night, I think I had to cut my toenails.


I'm getting lots of questions as well as requests to do a class, so look for an announcement next week.. Oh, and it will be free, but yes you will have to register and may receive promotions on services that I offer.  You won't get calls from a den of thieves out west that humiliate-sell you by telling you to use multiple credit cards or your HELOC to pay for the mentoring that is at best, beginner.  You will receive these calls if you sign up for the super guru hyped January Effects classes

If you already paid, DEMAND a refund and save yourself the disappointment of realizing you were scammed.  If not, e-mail me afterwards and don't worry, I won't give you an "I told you so"..


Testing yesterday's lows

Basis the S&P futures, we are testing yesterdays lows.  If these lows don;t hold, next support is whole number 1200


Gap down

Watching this gap down for a fading opp as we approach yesterday's lows


Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Stock market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

A ruckus after the FOMC

Nice flush out post FOMC, taking out the lows of day by just a smidgen so far. Breadth hanging ok, and we haven't moved far from unchanged on the downside. $TICK has also diverged, at least so far. Short term we are in oversold bounce mode, but once this fizzles itself out, the Bulls will have to defend to keep us from going back to the lows tiny

Long way to go

Still a long way to go in the session, but this wouldn't be a bad way to end the day, and put us on watch for range expansion on Wednesday.


Is gap fading dead?

Fading the opening gaps has been one of the more reliable tendencies in the market since I began trading, at least electronically 12 years ago.

The premise is that there is overemotional exuberance on the short term, and in order to relieve that and revert back to the mean, the gap fades.

The last few weeks have been torture for gap faders that either fade immediately off of the opening, or wait for the antiquated techniques preached by the super gurus, who have never had an original thought in what they swindle people with, but claim they do. They use old methods that by the time they claim them for their own, they don't work any longer.

I like to fade the gap when possible, but I rarely fade right off the open. Sometimes that will cost me the most advantageous entry, other times it will keep me out of trouble. I usually wait for a move in the direction of the gap that moves into support or resistance (depending on the gap's direction) and then lean into that. I'll get lucky sometimes (yes it's luck) and pick the exact high or low, but as long as I follow the plan for the fade entry I don't mind taking a bit of heat.

The action these last few weeks has been brutal as I mentioned above, but we seem to go through these periods every so often, so rather than complain about it (and no one is complaining more than me, believe that!) you have to keep your powder dry and look for better opportunities. Gap fading isn't dead, but it may be on an early holiday.


Watching this gap

Watching for a fade off this gap. first push is to the upside, watching for it to stall out for a retracement


Monday, December 12, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Subway or "The Sandwich"

Tough decision today

Subway is quick, easy and I'm back at the trading turret in about 20 minutes

"The Sandwich" requires a 15 minute ride each way, and another 15 at the salumeria and then another 20 to eat it, as well as being twice the price, at a minimum.

What to do, what to do......

Absolute ugliness

Absolute ugliness here as the gap down doesn't even get a fade attempt.

Breadth is pinned at worse than -2k as we hit new lows, below the first hour's range.

There are a few positive things to look at, but nowhere near enough to try and bottom pick:

Volume is on the light side
The NASDAQ 100 is holding up better than the broad market

Maybe the afternoon can change things up, but the breadth will need a major shift or else this can get even uglier.


More ugliness for the Swingers

We've taken out Friday's live low and now appear to be headed for Thursdays.

Once again, any swing traders that made a move into the close on Friday looking for follow through are in severe pain this morning


No S&P video

Covered it in the Stock market trading watch list for the most part,m= but it will return tonight


Nice gap down here on Monday

Nice gap down to start the week

Im going to be watching for a fade, but would prefer to see 1235 tested first


Friday, December 9, 2011

Two way action

I was looking for two way action early this morning, and I was right:

We have been going up and higher, that's 2 ways isn't it? That's how the super gurus would spin it! LOL

On a serious note, we are not conforming to my model here early on, as we have only been trading one way, but we'll see where we go after the first hour's range is put in. From there, I'll be adjusting.

Trend days are not the norm on a Friday, but so far someone forgot to tell that to the buyers.

Basis the March S&P Futures contract as of the time I post this:

Support: 1236

Resistance: 1245.50


POSTED: S&P 500 video for Friday, December 9th, 2011

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, December 9th, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Friday, December 9th, 2011

Will be posted on Friday morning before the market. There will likely be some movement overnight, so we'll look at it before the opening.


No real Economic movers

We have a 10AM number but its not a "high impact" one

The main news will be coming out of Europe and as I said in the video, will likely lead to some volatility


Nice size gap down

Using the March 2012 S&P 500 Index Futures contract for analysis

Looking for a gap fade but as always, will wait for confirmation


S&P 500 video For Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

S&P 500 video for Thursday

The S&P 500 video for Thursday will be done in the AM.

Some stuff going on overnight, I want to see where we are closer to the open.

Have a great night.


Stock Market trading Watch List For Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Late day breakouttttttttttttt

Pushing higher here with TICK backing up the move



Volume is tracking a bit higher today


Watching for a gap fill

After initial selling pressure off the open, the next target is a gap fill.

Breadth still not nice, but off its worst levels, and we may need a pause first, but the momentum pattern suggests we at least try higher


Small gap

Passing on the fade and waiting for a better setup.


Tuesday, December 6, 2011

S&P 500 video for 12/7/11

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Nice and sloppy

Nice and sloppy trading here, as we can't make up our minds.

Could stay this way into the afternoon, and no guarantee we move then either.

Breadth is -800s and the VIX is down small


Small gap

Not looking for a fade off the open here, will wait for another setup


Monday, December 5, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, December 6th, 2011


Sorry for screaming in the headline, but it's important that you hear me!

DO NOT pay for an over-hyped class on the January Effects "trend". You will be sorely disappointed and not be able to get your money back while the lead scam artist steals plays from other services like and claims them as their own.

I will be either doing a class on this, or writing an article on the site, or possibly both. The class and/or the article will be FREE. Your information will not be given to a den of scam artist thieves out West where they will call you to con and humiliate you into using your HELOC or multiple credit cards in order to fund a "coaching program" that will be nothing but regurgitated nonsense that can be found on the internet for free, such as spread trading. ROFLAMOOOOO


Ok, so which is worse?

The fact that they consider this news, or the fact that I actually clicked on the link.



GOOG hitting first and second targets here, the recent highs, and the highs from the middle of February. Next up to watch would be 643 from mid January


Another day.....

Another day, another big gap up that basically voids the price action from the previous day.

Friday's trade was weak and the close at the lows suggested some follow through to the downside.

If you watched my videos, I didn't get bearish based on Friday's action, but was concerned. Silly me. I would still love to see a pullback for a buying op.

Today, we pop open hard, even hitting a new overnight high just before the open, which was a gift for aggressive day traders/faders. Otherwise, this has been a torturous market for the swing traders who use end of day signals, which thankfully I (currently) don't.

I don't know if we rip it like Wednesday, but breadth is +2k and we are not seeing much in terms of a pullback. it could turn into a chop day as we form a high level base, but I'm going to wait for the first hour's range to be put in.


Got the retest

The 10AM ISM Number spiked us down, but we have since regained our footing at least for now

first half hour bracket definitely one to watch today

1259 low 1263.25 upside

Basis the S&P Futures


Let's see if we get a retest of highs

The fade didn't go very far and only worked for a scalp if you shorted the open, otherwise no dice.

Looks like we could be heading back for a test of highs, but still being in the first hour, I'm still watching for a divergence and potential short side entry


Nice fat gap up

I'll be watching this gap up for a fade


Friday, December 2, 2011

Not much of a fade yet

1251.75 holding like a rock for now

1252 was some overnight support

This is basis the S&P Futures


Nice gap up

Nice size gap up, but we are actually lower since the Jobs numbers were released.

I'm going to be watching for a fade opp as we look like we could have a topping pattern in here using the overnight session data.

as always, I'll wait for confirmation and a signal


Thursday, December 1, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Coldplay - Yellow


Volume is on the light side, as we are digesting yesterday's big move and tomm is Jobs report day.

More of a yellow day rather than green or red

Uh oh, that inspires me!


Two way action

As expected, two way trading action is the name of the game here in the morning.

Job numbers are due out Friday pre-market so we may not see much directional movement on the session, but if we do, it will likely be after lunch.

Of course, there's now some rattling about German Chancellor Angela Merkel taking a firm stance, etc., so Europe is still a wild card, which shouldn't be that surprising, should it?


Numebrs due at 10AM

See if they provide a spike or 2


The Gap fills

Wasn't a big one, but the gap got filled

Resistance above at 1248-149

basis the S&P futures



Overnight highs basis the S&P futures are 1248

breadth is flat


Smal gap down

Small gap down to start today;s session.

Ill be watching for a fade opp.