Thursday, June 30, 2011

S&P video for Friday, July 1st

Forex Trading Analysis For Friday, July 1st, 2011

Final Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of ...

New highs but they don't stick

Wow, what a day: POP! Chop chop chop pop! Chop chop chop pop! Chop chop chop pop!

Bulls win in an easy way, as the week before July 4th bullish seasonality coupled with end of quarter Window Dressing plays out

Tomorrow models for a boring day, with a contracted trading range


Where Are The Super Bears?

Guess they are back hiber-scamming


A quick work off

We were overbought into the price level highlighted earlier. We hit that level and sold off just over 4 points, which apparently was enough to work off the short term overbought nature of the market and we are heaed for the highs again

Rip em!


Last hour

We are flirting with the 1312.50 number, but we can't get a strong push below it.

Internals have taken a little dip here, as the $TRIN is now in the .90s and the A-D line is only +1300, but that's not enough of a change to get bearish by any means

1311 is short term support, if 1312.50 decides to give way.

I don't think we pull in very far, if at all but we may decide just to churn it out for the last hour and not ramp. Whatever the decision of the market is, it's a chop fest as of now


3 O'clock, time to rock?

Consolidating big time here. The most "devious thing" (that which would hurt the most) would be a down swoon, but internals certainly don't back that up



Bullish action here, with internals confirming

Trade below 1312.50 could be a short term change, but unless it comes with a big shift in internals, it won't be much of one


Fibonacci Support

Support levels to watch on this pullback


Wow, an actual dip of more than 2 points from highs?

Watching 1311.75 for support, and as I said earlier 1310 is a short term line in the sand

Turnaround Thursday? A wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy long path until that plays out

Internals are still nice and strong, so there's no reason to think this is anything more than just a dip for now


If anyone likes hard rock

A great rendition of Mob Rules. This guy's voice is awesome.

I first met the lead guitar player (on the singer's left) when he was 16 and playing the club I ran in my younger, long haired days.


1314.25 trendline and the 1310 line in the sand

As requested!


Price support

1314.25 is support from a multi day all sessions trend line

I don't think the Bulls need to be nervous until we break below 1310, and then only a little bit!



Can soemone bring me a sandwich? I don't want to leave the screen, I love watching paint sdry so can't leave!



FNSR Stopped breakeven as per the video
STEC heading to it's stop
CREE heading to it's breakevne on 2nd half trail



Lunch time here and there's no let up

TRIN .83 which is bullish, $VIX is right around 16 down 7 1/4% and the A-D line is strong at 1550

Unless internals change here, then we can look for higher prices in the afternoon


The Bulls

The Bulls can certainly be relentless when they want to be.

They disappeared for a while after the Osama spike, but when they decide to step in, they can go for periods of no let up.

It's obvious that some super special gurus were too early calling the death of the market, and the Euro for that matter


volume is lighter than yesterday

Volume is coming in lighter than yesterday, which is more confirmation that a short term high is near

The real question becomes whether the pullback is of any significance


Breadth still strong

Breadth is +1500s here, so even with the TICK and MACD diveregnce, the market is still very strong

We hit our resistance, but haven't seen any rejection to speak of. So far, just a whopping 1.5 points, basis the S&P futures

Support at 1313.75


3 drives to a high

Like yesterday, we are seeing 3 drives to a high here. Watching this reistance to see if we get any rejeciton. Othwerwise, 1320 is next resistance




162% Fibonacci Retracement



132 on the SPY has been teested

So far, it's held, but despite the divergences and such menationed in the previous post, we are NOT pulling back here

We are in grind mode here, but voluem is still suggestign exhaustion and a push back down here.

1313 support for now


No new TICK high

Divergence here as the market ticks to a new highs, but no new TICK highs and the MACD is in a serious divergence as well as a bearish volume pattenr up here

that last move up may have been exhaustive, but so far there is NO rejection here

Target is the 20EMA (use the 5 minute chart) if this divergence kicks in

Remember, like I said yesterday, divegrences can get eaten up on strong trending moves, so confirmation is key


Bulls are strong here

Just when it looked like we had a chance to push lower, the buyers stepped right back in again

Watching for new highs. If we fail there, then a short setup would have good risk reward



AAPL is still relatively week, but not in tank mode by any means

Rumors today about Steve Jobs going into the hospital


50 day on the SPY

So far, the 50 day movjng average on the SPY has held

Breadth is once again pretty strong,very tough to fight this here

Bears are feeling the heat

Guess there wil be some "I'm a trader" justificaiton on the short list...


50 day on the SPY SO far, the 50 day on the SPY has held

I'll be gone until 10:30

Back after the first hour


Gap Up

It doesn't look like we will open with a big gap up, but I'm looking for a push above the overnight highs for a shoritng opportunity


9AM update- Stock List

No changes


9AM update- EUR/CHF

The EUR/CHF fired off overnight short

We did not move stops yet, as 20 ticks was not seen in the trade

Manage as per the video


9AM update

Will be a few minutes late, but will be posted by 9:05 AM


Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Forex Trading Analysis for Thursday, June 30th, 2011

Even More Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List for The Week...

S&P 500 video for Thrusday, June 30th

Here's a quesiton

Where are all the Dollar Bulls?

Probably looking for the next scam to promote....


MA and V news

Opening Price

Opening price holds steady and we are on the bounce here

Resistance is at 1303.25, the 78.6% Fib of the last swing down


V and MA

Monster moves on V and MA as debit card swipe fee increases



EVEP is canceled

As per the video rules



Stops are moved to breakeven as per the video



3 Pushes up, a new high above the overnights and then ka blooooey

Opening price has held so far. If this gives way, look for a retest of lows as a possibility



Divergence at the highs with TICK and the MACD. Remember, a strong trend will rip through divergences like a bowling ball through a wet paper towel

I still have my model in my head for the day, so I still think we can pull in back inside the first hours range, but I won't fight this and I'm surely not going to guess at where it stops

OK, really going to lunch this time!


Offers at 1304.25

We couldn't tick up there just yet, as the overnight highs had a big batch of supply

If we get up there again, things could be different


Going to lunch, but first

Overnight highs are still the upside target here on the long side, and the dips have been eaten up by the bulls

Breadth is still strong here and my read of a digestion day is wrong here for now

I need a fresh mozzy and roasted peppers sandwich to get me through the afternoon!


V Reversal

So far, we have a V reversal in play here

I still don't like us to trend higher all day, but what I like and what happens are very often oppositte


Just Doesn't Matter!

We are continuing to grind it here, despite volume issues still showing up

Looks like we are bullish into Obama at the least


President Obama

President Obama is set to speak shortly


Im caught between....

We are above the 78.6% Fib, which to me is an all out signal that we will retest the highs


I'm seeing downside volume stepping up a little and exhaustion on the upside


Volume again saying...

That we can pull in here, but the pullbacks have been very shallow since we put in the lows

Sorry for the rapid posts, but Im thinking things out and it helps me when I write them out


TICK divergence

TICK divergence up here, but price is telling us that it doesn't care!

Breadth is also diverging, its off the levels we saw yesterday when we were lower than where we are today

Bulls are in charge for now, and any dip may be a shallow one. The gap was filled early on but it was a lame one, so it wasnt that hard.


My line in the sand

1301.75 is my line in the sand

If we stay below that, we should push back inside the first hours range and a retest of the 20 EMA on the 5 minute chart

If we shred it, look for overnight highs to be tested


1301.75 resistance

Watching that level for rejection

78.6% Fibonacci level using overnight highs to lows of the day session

new highs

Looking for this to fade, but finding an entry is not easy up here


Here is the test of highs

Watching for an entry

Of course, if we just rip it up, that would void it

back to back trend days are rare, so expecting a push outside the first horus rnage to fail

Starting to see volume issues here, so let's see


Whippy skippy

Lots of noise here early on

If we can get to the highs again, I'll be stalking a shorting op


You Suck CREE


today's model

Today's model as discussed on the video, was for a digestion day after the trend day on Tuesday.

that got a little monkey wrench thrown into it pre-market, but we still couldn't hold a big enough gap for me to step in off the open

Im sitting on my hands for the time being, as I wait out the morning churn.

Looks like we are trying to form an early base. Breadth is decent considering as I write this we are only up 2 S&P points



Triggered, moved, and already stopped out breakeven

WOW that was quick


Double top?

S&P went up to retest the highs here and got rejected pretty quickly

Should be a nice and volatile opening here until we get our bearings (no pun intended)


9AM update

All entries stand as per the video, but follow the rules. On stop entries if the stock opens below the entry, the trade is canceled, if the stops are are hit before the entries the trades are also canceled

For limit entries if stops are hit first, the trade is canceled, otherwise the limits are valid


9AM update

Will be a few minutes late! stand by!


Some wicked early volatility

Nice size gap and Ill be watching for a fade op


Tuesday, June 28, 2011

More Management of the Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of J...

Forex Trading Analysis For Wednesday June 29th, 2011

60 Minute S&P Futures chart

A=C move and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement



GS at a new low for 2011 here. Next support is down at 120.50


S&P 500 Video For Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

Nice Job ByThe Bulls

The Bulls have put up a good showing today

The 60 minute chart is a bit extended here, so I'm looking for a shot term rest. if we gap up it would be a nice spot for a short fade, but more on that later


Bulls are the boss

That "scalp" turned out to be a new high, and the Bulls are continuing to rule the roost here.

I'm starting to see some upside volume issues, but it could just be lunchtime, which is why Im headed for my fresh mozzy with roasted peppers sandwich

Ill be back later


A scalp at least

So far, the pullback has led to a scalp opportunity, and could be headed for a new high


this pullback

Volume is starting to slow down on this pullback.

That should lead to a bounce, but whether we get to new highs or not is the big question.

We may just see a short term little push that's good for a scalp



Stopped out for a scratch

Good move in the 9AM update it appears, as the push up was rejected


Breadth still strong

Im not calling another high here, I already did that today! I stayed safe thanks to the A-D line, but the price action read was wrong.

As long as breadth is trending higher, the bulls have to be given teh benefit of the doubt

it's still early, and a lot can change quickly



Well, we got a bigger pull in than last time, but highs are being tested, and now broken once again


Highs in?

Sellers will need to confirm, but volume up at the highs is suggestive of exhaustion

Breadth is keeping me from leaning on the short side here


New highs, but...

Volume suggesting a deeper pull in than last time is looming

Of course, since last time was only 1.25 points, thats not saying much


So far

Just a little over a point of pullback

Not much downside pressure after the push off the highs, suggesting the bulls are still sticking around, at least for NOW. Since Im watching such a small time frame, this can change quickly


Looking for a pull in

I just don't know how deep. Short term upside volume dry up and reversal here



The ABC pattern gets its target, now lets see if exhaustion comes in


Here they come

Buyers stepping in, but will it be enough to push to a new highs

Could exhaust themselves by the time they get there


Breadth is good

The A-D line is about where it was at the highs yesterday

Could be a possible small ABC down here before new highs are seen, but the bulls have to come in with some volume, or else the highs of the AM may have been seen

I'm waiting for some more evidence


Overnight highs tested

No trigger for me yet, but I'm watching


Watching the overnight highs

See how we act around them


Dull opening

Dull open, but watching for a first push here. if we push to the overnight highs, Ill be watching for a shorting op


S&P 500 video For Tuesday, June 28th

9AM update


GBP/USD did not trigger, the trigger is still live, just move the first stop move target to 30 ticks. So 30 ticks would move stops to breakeven. if the stop hits before the entry, the trade is canceled, as always


General rules apply. If the stop is hit before the entry, or the gap opens below the entry the trade is canceled


Monday, June 27, 2011

Forex Trading Analysis For Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

S&P Video

The S&P video will be posted in the AM

Forex video will be up in a few minutes


Management Of the Stock Market Trading Watch List for the Week of June 2...

The highs appear to be in

Bulls made it above Friday's highs, but we couldn't stick.

I'm not looking for a "whoosh" like move to the downside here, but the highs appear to be in


Mini Wedge

We just fell out of a mini wedge that formed as we grinded to the new highs

Watch the 20EMA on the 5 minute chart for support


Flag gets its target

New highs was the target for the flag, but follow through is LAME here.

If we don't step up soon, look for reversion back to the 20EMA on the 5 minute cahrt


New high....

By a tick! no follow through so far

1283 is next upside resistance, the daily 20 period moving average

Breadth is solid, let's see if the Bulls can put something together here



Chart looking more like a continuation pattern than a reversal or rejeciton.

If so, Friday's highs are in jeopardy


First sign of rejection

On the 5 minute bar, a we test 1 tick below Friday's highs

This may only be a pause before we mount it, but it's definitely an inflection point


Here's what I'll be watching for.....

Rejection of Friday's highs and a small pattern setup on a 500 tick or 1 minute chart

If we rip right through Friday;s highs and stick there, I won't be trying the short side...


200 day MA holds, but.....

We look like we are forming an inside day for today. I'm expecting the highs from Friday to hold, which means if we get up towards there, I'll be looking for a shorting op, with a pretty tight stop loss


200 Day Is Tested Again

The SPY is retesting the 200 day moving average here.

Michael tiny Saul

The Blog Will Be Dark This AM!

I forgot, I have an appointment this AM, I'm leaving right near the open. Ugh! Who sets these times?

I should be back late morning or early afternoon so check back in a few hours

We just went red again on the S&P Futures, but we are at Fibonacci support using the all sessions chart.


S&P video for Monday, June 27th

Saturday, June 25, 2011

My Neighbor Sucks!

Sorry folks but my neighbor cut my Fios line AGAIN. The last time it was from planting there trees, and this time it was installing there sprinklers.

I haven't had internet since about 12:30PM Friday, but the good folks at Verizon promised they will be out tomorrow to fix it.

If you don't see any videos from me that's the reason why, but I am working on putting together two cups and a string on a worse case for Monday.

Thanks for the emails, I am still getting them on my phone, but the internet on my phone sucks so I had my friend Joe put this post up for me.

Hopefully I will talk to you soon,

Michael "Tiny" Saul

Friday, June 24, 2011

The Bulls are trying

We are trying to put in a hard bottom here

1263 was not tested (yet) and breadth has improved to only -700s

Let's see if we get a break above 1270 with some volume



Today, my model was for weakness to get bought and clean up that open gap from yesterday. While we did move higher overnight, so far in the day session, the SPY and S&P Futures gaps remain unfilled.

Bears had other ideas apparently. Why didn't they listen to my S&P video! Stupid Bears! rrrrrrrrg!

When I'm wrong I always reduce size immediately, so I don't let my stubbornness (nah not me) creep into things and ruin an otherwise good week. With my size now, I can get hurt, but it would take a very big move against me (flash crash size) to do so. That's where I want to be until I get in sync with the market, which may not be until Monday at this point, as I'm still looking for a place for us to bounce, especially since we just held the 78.6% Fib of the last swing up.

Or maybe (probably) I'm just justifying what I want to see!


1 day wonder?

Was yesterday just a 1 day wonder? Bears are back, but not as fierce as early on yesterday. Breadth is only -1k, which is not as awful, if awfulness can be measured!

1263 is next support for the S&P futures, upside resistance is the 20 EMA on the 5 minute chart at 1270.75 for now, but coming down at a brisk pace.


Thursday, June 23, 2011

S&P 500 video

No Forex video tonight

I'll do one over the weekend and look a little bit deeper into some of the crosses.


Management of the New Stock Market Trading Watch List for the Week Of Ju...


Nice pop here off Greece news

resistance smacked straight into the 162% fib external retracmenet

Chart to follow

Better late than never!

Well after finally going to sleep at 6:30 this morning, I just recently got up to check in on the watch list and the market. With only 4 hours of sleep in me, I wont be trading until the afternoon, if at all.

Bears are in control here, and the 200 day moving average on the SPY is finally tested. While this could be the bottom of the range I've been talking about, I still think there is a good chance that we test the small range from the lows from March 16th, down to 124.77.

As I've been saying, I think we form a range here more than anything else over the next several weeks to months. If I'm wrong and we break down hard, I'll be looking for continuation patterns.

For now, let's see if the 200 day is enough to bring the bulls back in, at least for a little bit.

1263.75 is short term resistance here basis the S&P 500 Futures, and based on early momentum, the lows do not look like they are in for the day, but we'll see what the recent buyers here have to say about that.


S&P 500 Video for Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Forex Trading Analysis For Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

A Brand New Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week Of June 20th, 2011

Seling into the clsoe

Selling hitting the tape into the close

volume is on the light side over all


Are you following me on twitter?


New highs tagged

No big through here, but it appears we are in a pennant.


Back on the upside move

Trying to get to yesterday's highs after all.

This is why I like to avoid the chop, but as I think about it....

I might be a self fulfilling prophecy for me. I think FOMC day is going to be choppy, therefore it is choppy!


Very zen like if you ask me....


ooooooooooooooo Rejection

We got above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, which suggests that we would tag yesterday highs, but after moving jut a point higher, we rejected.

Support is opening price at 1286


Yesterday's highs

Next upside target


Into the 78.6%

Fibonacci resistance here on the S&P 500 futures


Australian Dollar

Its a choppy mess on the daily chart. We should see a nice directional move out of this one, but the question is, when?

The ADX is still above 10 so I'm not at the "any minute" phase yet.



Wasn't my 4 point requirement so I'm passing here

Ill watch for something to set up this AM, but more than likely, Im on the sidelines until after 2:15


Tuesday, June 21, 2011

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

New Blog and more

I will be launching my new blog early next week. I've decided to keep this one open so that I can put quick blurbs and talk during the trading day. the other blog will focus on education and training for the trader.

There will also be a way to sign up and get emails form me about every day or so with information and videos that will just be for subscribers and it will be for free.

My newsletter will be beta testing after the 4th of July. I'll be looking for some people to give me feedback and tell me how I can make it more useful and of course, what info you want to help you make MONEY.


Videos For Tonight

Wednesday is FOMC announcement day so no videos tonight except for the S&P 500 video which will be posted by 11PM

Cancel all entries on stocks. The $EURUSD was canceled when the stop was hit before the entry last night.

There should be some setups on Thursday after the FOMC announcement is behind us.

Trade well,


Will it matter?

More news out of Greece, and in the end I doubt it matters.

We got a real nice bounce today in the stock market, with some volume and breadth back up, but I still think that the lows of this range have not been seen yet.

More later.


A little rejection

A little overshoot followed by rejection of the highs, but nothing saying this is "the" highs.

I'm on the fence until the gap tomorrow if there is one, and then after the announcement at 2:15 Eastern


Test of highs

Possible double top scenario, but the bears are absent and breadth is very strong today

Not the type of market that begs to be faded.


They never learn

The scam artists that tout super duper lists and strategies just don't understand how the trends really work.

They get bearish at the lows, and bullish at the highs over and over and over again.

Remember: As soon as they get super biased and start selling their over hyped nonsense, its time to fade em!


Early push higher

No fade, we pushed higher into 10AM and a bit after.

Short term resistance is here, let's see how far we pull back, or if we just move sideways.


FOMC day, part 1

Today is the 1st day of a 2 day FOMC meeting.

There is a bullish tendency into the meeting, and it appears we started to see the bounce yesterday.

It may be a dull day, and if so, remember to protect first, worry about trading second.

We are getting a gap above 4 points, so I will be watching for a fade, but if it dries up volume wise after 10, Ill be sitting on my hands

Have a great trading day


9AM update

The EUR/USD narrowly missed the trigger. That trade is now canceled as per the video


Monday, June 20, 2011

Forex Trading Analysis For Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

No Watch List Video Tonight

I don't want to waste the bandwidth!

SWI is canceled

The two shorts are still valid. You can view yesterday's video here

Check back for the 9AM update right here tomorrow.

There will be a Forex video if it ever uploads.


S&P 500 video for Tuesday, June 21st

Hi there!


Nice to see you!

Michael tiny Saul


I just saw an ad for a "proven" options trading system that can double your account every month.

I mean, really?

I tried to go back to the site, but I cant find it, and have to backtrack where I was linked from. I want to read the WHOLE copy, maybe I am missing something!



S&P video

Ill do a new one tonight, I rebooted but its already an hour into the trading session

Ill make sure to do one nice and early today


Euro fills the gap!

Let's see how far it wants to go now


S&P video for Modnay

Opera is not letting me open the capture tool, so I need a reboot in order to dot eh video

Ill post it in a little bit

The quick and dirty version:

Im still looking for a test of the 200 day simple moving average on the SPY at a minimum, if not the Mid March lows before a decent bounce.

I think the hucksters and hypester/liars that are predicting a swift and ugly crash (even though they were bullish just a week or so ago) are early.


It was such a nice gap!

S&P Futures now gapping small, but overnight they were gaping up so nicely.

I have to have at least 4 points to qualify as an open fade opportunity, but that's my rules, not yours.

if not, I'll just wait on the sidelines for an AM consolidation or another setup


Watching the Euro here

The Euro opened with a gap down and while it tried, it couldn't get a gap fill in the evening to overnight session

Im watching for it to fill the gap here, but I don't know how much further it can get


Sunday, June 19, 2011

Friday, June 17, 2011

DTO mentioned earlier this week

55.62 is the 200 day moving average, which is resistance to watch. Friday's candle was a spinning top which means momentum may be waning here for the time being

DUG didn't go very far this week.


AM consolidaiton

We have formed a morning consolidation. Here are the levels to watch basis the S&P 500 Futures: 1271.50 upside 1269.75 downside

It's Friday and its OE day, so be careful of whipsaws and fakeouts


Thanks for the well wishes and I should be back full time next week

Thank you everyone for the well wishes regarding my youngest son. He was admitted to the hospital on Monday for an infection, and should be leaving today or tomorrow.

Hes doing great, and it's awesome to see him so happy when he sees me and his brothers, but its a stress on my wife and I. I'm watching my two other boys and I must say that I have SEVERELY underestimated my wife's skills in this area.

I still wouldn't get random nannies and trust them with their well being, no matter how much money I had, but hey, that's just me.

I should be back next week full time.



Straight fade was the best entry here. first target achieved

I'll now be watching for another entry



It doesn't look like we are headed there currently, but Im watching for a push to overnight highs for a shorting op. This is for the first half hour only.


Nice size gap

It appears we will have a nice size gap up to start the session.

Ill be watching for a fade entry


No 9AM update

Sorry, I thought there was a stock to add on but it turns out there isn't.

No change from the video


9AM update

Will be a few minutes late, check back at 9:05, and thank you!


Thursday, June 16, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Friday, June 17th, 2011

No Forex video tonight

No Forex video again for Friday, I want to see how the week ends and do a detailed analysis over the weekend, most likely Sunday night.


Still Even More Management Of the Stock Market Trading Watch List For Th...

Philly Fed Spike

Spike down off the Philly Fed number, but it was quickly faded

new highs now


Overnight highs

We fell 1 tick shy of overnight highs on that last push up. that might be the workd done for the Bulls, but its still early here.

Philly Fed may spike us either way


Got the small push up

We didn't scream higher here, but we got a small push up towards the overnight highs

Breadth is +600s early on here.

The Philly Fed number is due out at 10AM and that can move us. There's no way to predict which way, despite what some may tell you. It's GAMBLING trying to guess here.


Is this all the bulls can do?

No real gap, so it's wait and see mode for now.

We have the TRIN signal which suggests a bounce, but let's se how far we cna actually get.

As of now, it looks like we want to try to push a little bit higher here to start.

I'm going to be keying in on the overnight highs.


Watch list

ONXX triggered

DECK triggered

LNN not yet


Small gap for now

Small gap down for now, but let's see if any more selling comes in before the opening


Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Recommended Reading List

People are asking me about what books I recommend

First, there is a book out there with my name on it. DO NOT buy that book. It's not mine.

Here is a list of books that I recommend. They aren't free, but you won't get hardcore "guilt" sold a 15,000 worthless mentoring package if you buy them.


S&P 500 video for Thursday, June 16th, 2011

Even More Management Of The Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week...

No Forex video, but here's an update

The EUR/AUD was canceled it got killed overnight and never triggered.

The Euro got smashed on Wednesday and subsequently the US Dollar rallied, so I'm going to wait a bit to let the dust settle here and not post a video tonight.

The stock market watch list will be posted in a little bit with three new potential triggers.


MCRS is gone

+.53 as per the video instructions



Im gone for the day unfortunately, so the blog will be dark.

I would be watching this for a fade, but I wont be here to take it.

Have a great trading day


Early morning selling

We are seeing early morning selling off the 8:30 CPI numbers

I'll be watching a big gap down for a fading opportunity, for a scalp

It's still way early here, so we may retrace a bit of this, or we could move lower.

Right now we are stretched here, so consolidation would not surprise me



The EUR/AUD cross was on the Forex video for today. It didn't trigger and rolled over hard. The entry is canceled as per the video rules.


Tuesday, June 14, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

Forex Trading Analysis for Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

More Management Of The Stock Trading Watch List For The Week Of June 13t...

new highs

New highs here on the day and all sessions chart. No follow through...yet


It's very early...

It's very early but breadth is nice and strong at +1900 and change

I'm waiting for a push higher to watch for a shorting op, but not for very long.


MCRS stops are moved

Breakeven now as per the video


I won't be here much today

I have some family issues to deal with today so I wont be here for most of the day.

I am watching this gap up for a fade but as of now we are back to the 20 period exponential moving average, all sessions chart, so I will be waiting for a bounce to look for a short entry, or passing on the fade.



Targets were met on both pieces


Monday, June 13, 2011

Friday, June 10, 2011

Viewer Stock market Trading Requests For The Week Of June 13th, 2011

Can't get off the bototm

No fade, and we are forming what appears to be a bear flag here

breadth is nasty at -1800


watch list updates

QSII and CHSI are canceled

GPRO stops are moved to breakeven here


Nice bounce off the new lows

We took out the overnight lows (basis the S&P futures) just before we opened up and got a bounce. We still got the 4 point minimum gap that I watch for, but no trigger here yet

Im watching for one, and my interest will grow if we retest those lows


S&P 500 video for Friday, June 10th, 2011

9AM update for Friday

As always, if we open below the trigger price or trade to the stop before the trigger, the trade is canceled


Thursday, June 9, 2011

Forex and S&P videos for Friday

No Forex video for tonight as there's still not much setting up on the daily charts. Ill do a full recap over the weekend.

S&P 500 video will be posted in the AM


Even More Continued Management Of the Stock Market Trading Watch List Fo...

Market Breadth

Market breadth is still not super strong, but it is above 1000, so certainly can not say its bearish by any means

Breadth was stronger than this on Tuesday before the rollover started, but that doesn't mean it will happen today.

Price action still favoring the bulls, very tough to short here for now, but we've seen that change quickly


Back to the 20EMA here

All sessions 20EMA on the 5 minute has been tested and is so far, holding.

Gap did not get a full fade, this is usually a bullish sign.

Breadth could be better as it's only +800s, but can;t argue with price action here


Small $TICK divergence

Small $TICK divergence up here, but it's not enough of one to predict a big move


RENN in single digits

WOW single digits!

Ugliness! Where are the hypesters on this?


6 days down

We had 6 days down into the S&P 500 today, and are seeing a mini snap back. It's certainly way too early to call it a full snap back, but for now we have a bullish chop bias on rollover day. That's if you want to get specific ;)

Watching for the first hour range to form here.


AMG is canceled

traded to the stop before the trigger so it's canceled as per the rules


So far a nice fade

So far a nice fade if you took it off the open, which I don't. Target is overnight lows and then red on the day. I'm waiting for a setup


S&P 500 video for Thursday, June 9th, 2011

Wednesday, June 8, 2011


No Forex video tonight. No setups on the daily time frames, just the smaller ones.

S&P video will be done in the morning, I want to wait and see what the overnight trading looks like

thanks for all the feedback I've been getting lately. I really appreciate it.


Even More Management of the Stock Market Trading Watch List for the Week...

Overnight lows on their way

Here comes a test of overnight lows


Beige Book

Due out at 2PM Eastern

Market seems to want to move off it, but who knows.

Maybe a finishing touch to this drip down?


market update

We are acting weak again and breadth is still crappy here. A test of overnight lows looks like a good possibility.


Breadth still not good

A-D line is back to -1k , not much traction for the bulls


Morning triangle

We had a nice morning triangle formed

It broke down, but didn't get more than a few ticks

Back to wait and wait and wait and oh yeah, see mode


First half hour is in

Basis the S&P Futures:

Support is 1276.25 (overnight lows) and resistance is today's highs


Breadth is crappy

-1100 here but it's early


CMI straight down!

Unfortunately, it opened below the entry point so it was canceled

RL as well

this is frustrating!


Interesting stat

Not my stat, but grabbed it off a feed I watch, and it's food for thought

"SPY has dropped 5 straight days into a Tuesday 11 times. All 11 times it has rallied on Wednesday"

As I said on my video, we may get a bounce for a day or even a few days, but I don't think we get a good rally until we test that level highlighted.


S&P 500 video for Wednesday, June 8th 2011

9AM update

No changes, the same rules apply, If anything opens below the short triggers its canceled. If anything trades to the stop before the entry, it's canceled


9AM update

will be a few minuets late check back at 9:03


Tuesday, June 7, 2011

S&P video

Will be done in the AM

Don't forget the 9AM update as well


Forex Trading Analysis for Wednesday, June 11th, 2011

Continued Management Of the Stock Market Trading Watch List For The Week...

Quick look at the market

Got a nice little extension to the upside early, but we've rolled over a little bit. Breadth is still +1k and we are still positive.

This is not turnaround Tuesday here. In order for that have happened, we would have had to have weakness early followed by a bounce and rally later on. We have been green since the open, so a turnaround would be a drop later on. Right now, that would be fighting against the tide, so unless there is a shift, the bulls still look like they are the boss, at least on the short term.




TRIN over 2 getting its value here for sure


Short term resistance here

we are at short term resistance here, but we could easily go back to the overnight highs here if we don't see some rejection



Model's a digestion day, which means this push lower early could provide a buying op


Small support

1289.25 basis the S&P futures


Opening for Tuesday, June 7th 2011

We got an opening gap off the TRIN over 2 close, but as soon as the bell rang we took a dip.

Waiting for a clean setup here


Monday, June 6, 2011

9AM update, yep real early!

$AUDCAD stopped out +50 ticks on the remaining half. The $EURUSD stopped out -50 ticks on the whole position.

Net on the trades was about 25 ticks or so. It's better than a sharp stick in the eye, but the $EUR was looking weak for a bit, it just couldn't die for us.


Management of the Stock Market Trading Watch List for the Week of June 6...

Forex Trading Analysis for Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

S&P Video for Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

market update

OK, so the S&P Futures, all sessions chart hit the target of 1290.25. The SPY came a little short of 129.51, and we may want to go down and kiss that before we get a better bounce.


MAKO is canceled

Hit the stop before the trigger


Target achieved

1290.25 was tagged, target achieved on the short term

If we are going to now continue to trade in a range, this would be a spot to build a small base and then get a bounce from


New lows in TICK with price

This suggests new price lows still to be seen


Overnight lows

The overnight lows, basis the S&P futures at 1292.25 are the first downside target form here, then 1290.25 is in play


TICK again

TICK got to -900, may be all she wrote on the downside?

breadth is not nice (-1100) even if it is early



Looks like we want overnight lows here



Starting to decline here, but it's still early



TICK is minorly (is that even a word?) flushing here, -600s

No follow through either way.....yet!


It's early

But breadth is negative

S&P Futures:

Resistance- Minor- High of day, then 1300

Support- Minor Low of day, then 1292.25



Wooooo hooooooooooo exciting!

Looks like we want to try and push up here, but don;t know how far we will actually get.

Watching intra-day resistance for a shorting op, if breadth is strong I'll pass

Overnight session hit one of the targets I was watching, which was Friday's lows. 1290.25 is still an open target on the downside, in my opinion.


Watch List Update

UTHR got yoinked, that trade is canceled

MAKO still open, but if it hits the stop before the entry it's canceled too


9AM update for Stocks

UTHR looks to be cracked pre market. As always, if we gap above (or below if its a short) a trigger or trade below a stop (or above) before a trigger is hit, the trade is CANCELED

This goes for ALL stocks on the watch list, including MAKO for today


9AM update


$AUDCAD is half off adn riding half with a 51 tick locked in gain stop. Looking for the second piece off +160

$ERUSD turned around, still under water. If the trade gets back to breakeven, use a 50 tick stop instead of 100 ticks and manage the rest as per the video

Stock update will be a little delayed, but will be up by 9:05 (no changes expected anyway)


Friday, June 3, 2011

S&P video for Monday, June 6th, 2011

Why its good to use stops and manage your positions

There are a lot of super gurus out there that don't use stops, or double down when they "feel" or "dream" that a stock is going to do something. What they don't tell you is that if they lose, they will put out a high priced, super hyped class that will leave you feeling cheated and just plain old disappointed and refund their gambling account.

I can't have my assistant wire out the loot from this month's bounty when I have a margin call. Therefore, I have to use stops at all times, or risk extinction.

You can't get it back tomorrow if you don't have any gas left in the tank after today. But even if you are running on fumes, you still have a chance.

Small stops, and try your best to milk your winners (my personal struggle for years), but always manage, manage, manage. It's your money after all!

RIMM from last week's small stop out:



Getting cracked here, check out the reversals from earlier pushes up on these

So much for SOHU holding that trigger point. This will definitely be on the list for Monday


SOHU wow

What a reversal on SOHU

If it doesn't hit the trigger today (the trigger was CANCELED AS PER THE RULES), it will be on the list for Monday

Serious rejection on that one


Watch list Updates

AUDCAD yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

EURUSD booooooooooooooooooo


$EURUSD just triggered

as per the Forex video

30 ticks moves stops to entry

$AUDCAD stops are already moved to entry


Someone just told me...

Someone just told me that I shouldn't inject the negative energy into NFLX, because by me saying that, it's going to stop out

Usually I would send a private reply but since this person obviously reads the blog I'll reply here

If you think that energy, positive or negative is what makes winning or losing trades, you need to find something else to do with your money.

You need to inject good money management into your trading, not good "energy"

The trader with the "biggest heart" doesn't win

The trader that "wants it the most" doesn't win

It's the trader that understands their risk management and applies it. It's the trader that trades with a plan, win lose or draw. The market rewards discipline. those are the traders that survive. The rest is nonsense.

NFLX just stopped out, and by .02 no less


Thank you SOHU!

For not triggering first before ramping like this

SOHU entry is canceled the stop hit before the entry



Looking like it wants to stop out soon

Very strong in the face of the ugly market


Nice fade

Fade working well, I didn't take it, and actually got nicked on a short attempt, but kept size small

1304.25 fills the gap basis the S&P futures


Watch List Update- ACOR

ACOR is gone +.06


9AM update

Bid breakeven for NFLX. Take a scratch if it trades there

Same thing for ACOR

SOHU the standard rules apply. If we open below the entry or trade to the stop before the entry, cancel the trade


Big gap

I will be watching this gap for a fading op


And there she goes!

No regrets on not going with my "feel". That way has gotten me in way more trouble that this trade would have made me, even if I maxed out the account. It's also carried more people out of this business than many would admit.

Now, we see if we get the retest of the lows from April 18th, which come in at 1290.25


Just a thought

It feels like we want to spike down off the number, but there's no trigger, and there's no glory in gambling here ahead of the number, so Im waitng out the move.

I don't trade on feel, or gut, or a dream I had. I trade on a trigger bawsed on a pattern.


8:25 Update

AUDCAD triggered and is right around breakeven. change management. If it goes 25 ticks from entry, move stops to breakeven. Keep the same first target of +100 and 2nd target of +200

EURUSD did not trigger yet, but the trigger is still valid