Friday, December 31, 2010

What a year!

First and foremost, I want to wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year. I appreciate each and every person who has connected with me this year with words of encouragement and criticism (yes, I actually welcome it), through e-mail, on the phone and in personal meetings. For those that just read my blog, follow my tweets, or attend the classes that I hold, thank you for the continued support, it means the world to me. It has been my privilege and pleasure to connect with you and I look forward to doing it again in 2011.

2011 is the best year yet! There are amazing opportunities for this coming year. I am excited at what is ahead of us.

Thank you,

Michael “tiny” Saul

Tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P 500 video for Friday, December 31st

http://chart.ly/sunjvyr

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, December 30, 2010

BMC Bull flagging


Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

DVN possible reversal


Shooting star after a big run up

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

S&P 500 video for Thursday, December 30th

http://chart.ly/94jnpyk

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

X


Despite a Dark Cloud Cover setting up a few days ago, X now looks to be in a nice looking daily Bull flag

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

S&P 500 video for Thursday, December 29th

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/xuleivi

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

MCP chart


Nasty reversal on Tuesday. Support points are the gap, the 10 day moving average, and the horizontal line.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

CMG Video Analysis

http://chart.ly/pisjann

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

SPMD video- Update

http://chart.ly/li92tj4

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Monday, December 27, 2010

S&P 500 video update for Tuesday, December 28th

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/lxxfiag

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

SPMD Video Analysis

http://chart.ly/ybpnnkv

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Sunday, December 26, 2010

S&P 500 video for December 28th

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/jpbuea6

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, December 23, 2010

For everyone that came to the class last night

It was my absolute privilege to speak to everyone. Thank you for making my holiday a great one.

For those that inquired about coaching, I will be contacting everyone today.

Have a great holiday! I will see you over the weekend with some videos and posts.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Last chance to sign up for tonights FREE class

7:30 PM eastern start time!

http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

SPX video for Wednesday, December 22nd

http://chart.ly/8s5m44s

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Bull flag XLNX


30.50 is April 2007 resistance

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Dynamite Triangle-OII



82.49 is June 2008 resistance

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

The class is Wednesday!

That's tomorrow for those that do not have a calendar handy ;)

http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

What is the January Effect? Investopedia explains:

What Does January Effect Mean?

A general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off.


How can we use this tendency to our benefit? Is it as simple as just buying a portfolio of stocks at the end of the year?

Join us for this FREE event. You will have to register and you may receive promotions from myself and/or Tidetraders in the future.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P 500 video for 12/21

http://chart.ly/8imf5j6

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

X


A nice move on this one since the triangle breakout, but caution is now warranted as a Dark Cloud Cover has formed

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Monday, December 20, 2010

2/3 of the spots are gone, so register now!

http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

January Effects class. It's free, but you will need to register

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Sunday, December 19, 2010

S&P 500 video analysis

The video can be found here: http://chart.ly/dy2df6e

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

HAWK video- THIS TRADES ON LOW VOLUME!

http://chart.ly/v8eruuv

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

A mini-base on the 200 day Moving Average

See the video of AGO here: http://chart.ly/6sbih2n

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Low volume


DEST is in an ascending traingle, but it trades on very low volume, which could lead to issues if you use a stop to get in and/or out.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Saturday, December 18, 2010

F


Out of it's triangle here. Can it tag 20 before year end?

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

AMZN


Bull flag

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

S&P 500 Video Analysis for December 16th

http://chart.ly/qlhhsyb

Video Analysis of GLD

http://chart.ly/3p5kacj

Video Analysis of CAT

http://chart.ly/6ean6ha

X- follow up


Mentioned last week, X got a nice move out of the triangle and into resistance.

May be a spot to consider booking profits

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

January Effects Class- Sign up now!

I am going through the JE candidate list, it is a target rich environment.

Sign up here: http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

It's free and I will not own any shares or options of any stocks we talk about! No pump and dumping or Front Running allowed.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Friday, December 10, 2010

Spots filling up fast

http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

Register for the JE class. Remember, it's free but you may receive offers for Tidetraders or my services in the future.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Another article from Paul Schatz

Paul is a top notch analyst, money manager and friend. All opinions expressed in his articles are his, and do not reflect any recommendations to buy or sell securities, options, currencies, futures or any other financial instrument not specifically mentioned.

Bernanke on 60 Minutes… AGAIN

Last Sunday, for the second time in 18 months Fed chairman Ben Bernanke appeared on CBS' 60 Minutes What a dramatic and impressive shift in Fed policy to have the most powerful central banker on earth sell his story to the world on network television. Or a cynic could say that things must be incredibly bad economically for Bernanke to degrade the hallowed institution of the Federal Reserve so much by having to subject himself to common media interviews.

Only time will tell which is true, but it gives me a good feeling that Bernanke is comfortable coming down from the ivory tower and sharing, something his predecessors would never have done. It's still unconscionable to me Alan Greenspan has the nerve to continually defend his actions as Fed chair.

Long time readers know that I have NEVER been a Greenspan fan, even during the booming economic times. After all, his first action upon taking office in 1987 was to immediately drain liquidity, greatly contributing to the stock market crash that year. While he is lauded for always providing liquidity and saving the world during the 9/11 tragedy, Long Term Capital debacle and Asian currency crisis, his reactive, not proactive behavior was symptomatic of the problem, not the solution!

Anyway, I found Bernanke's interview with 60 Minutes very interesting and informative. Although his choice of words were supposed to exude control and confidence, he seemed fidgety, nervous and a little uncomfortable, not the pillar of strength we are used to seeing combat Congress several times a year.

To be unfairly picky, it was hard not to notice that little twitch or lip quiver during the interview. So called body language experts have pointed out a lack of total conviction in his forecast and opinion. He often shook his head no when talking about a positive topic and this supposedly meant he really didn't believe what he was saying.

My takeaway just confirmed what I have believed since January 2008. Ben Bernanke and his supporters are, have been and will always be more concerned about deflation over inflation. He absolutely refuses to let another depression befall out economy.

As I continue to believe and have written here more times than I can count, if the Fed could engineer some real inflation with money velocity, wage growth and increased industrial capacity utilization along with higher consumer prices, it would truly be mission accomplished. As Bernanke hinted and I firmly believe, my 7 year old daughter could combat inflation. It's just not that difficult! Deflation is the economic killer without a known cure.

Food and energy prices may have risen dramatically, which hurts consumers, but we don't have any wage growth. Capacity utilization remains elevated, but still at recession levels. There is lackluster money velocity from the banks as they continue to hoard cash at the Fed, not to mention the record levels of cash on corporate balance sheets. As I've said for three years, including DEFLATION: The REAL Boogeyman to Fear, there is no worrisome inflation now or in the foreseeable future.

Bernanke should be commended for doing his homework. His detractors point to over the horizon inflation with his appetite for creating money. But Bernanke was quick to point out that our supply of currency has not increased with quantitative easing. In fact, M1 (liquid currency) is actually declining year over year.

When the Fed "prints money" to buy treasury bonds, they are buying them from Uncle Sam to keep interest rates low, in hopes of spurring on economic growth. They do not desire to throw $100 bills from helicopters as Bernanke famously wrote about in a paper regarding cures for the Great Depressions. (Hence the name Helicopter Ben)

FYI, I will be on CNBC’s The Call at 11:05am on Tuesday, December 14.

Feel free to email me with any questions or comments at Paul@investfortomorrow.com.

Until next time…

Paul Schatz

Heritage Capital LLC
http://www.InvestForTomorrow.com
http://RetirementPlanningConnecticut.com/

X


Explosion triangle. Wait for confirmation as always! If we get it, this could tag 60. Of course, if the pattern doesn't get confirmed, my opinion IMMEDIATELY changes. That's the beauty of using patterns rather than just "feel".

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

BAC double bottom?


BAC finally trying to put a low in? We'll see...

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

twitter

www.twitter.com/tinyreal

January Effects Sign Up Page

http://www.tidetraders.com/register-for-event

December 22nd at 7:30 PM Eastern. free, but you must register and may receive promotions for services provided by me or Tidetraders.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Wha happened?


Nice size gap up, but it was down from there. While the market attempted a recovery mid afternoon, the sellers came in force and clsoed us at the lows.

This could be the start of the pullback I started to watch for at the start of the week. The VIX is still in a sell signal as well.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Monday, December 6, 2010

January Effects Class

Info will be relased shortly as to the when and where

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Extreme Narrowness!


A very narrow range session was traded on Monday. This puts us in volatility contraction mode. Volatility is mean reverting, and therefore we should be watching for range expansion as early as Tuesday.

I'm still watching for a pullback based on the VIX and overboughtness of the market, but that doesn't mean we can't jsut shoot straight up from here. If we do, I'll miss it as I'm waiting for a "safer" entry.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Sunday, December 5, 2010

The VIX Is saying stay away from the long side

Based on Friday's close, the $VIX is saying stay away from long side exposure for the time being. The $VIX is now in a position that has historically corresponded with a correction being imminent. This doesn't mean it has to happen Monday, but I'm going to be watching very carefully here.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

FDX


FDX showing a pause after upside extension. Possible aggressive short on a break of the Friday lows (after 10AM), target is the purple line (last breakout level).

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

3 with poor relative strength



SPY analysis


The SPY put in three upside sessions in a row to end last week, but as the volume panel shows, each day came with decreasing volume. While normally this would be a major concern for the Bulls, keep in mind that using a weekly view, we can see that volume actually increased (not hard to do relative to last week since it was only 3 1/2 days) too the best level since August (see below).

So now what? The Bulls appear to be in control for the time being, and we should be watching for another push up here. the best case scenario is a minor pullback or consolidation to get on board, as testing the yearly highs comes with some short term exhaustion and overboughtness (I should patent that word!).

Bottom line: I will remain in day-trade mode for the time being, but will look to get on board for a swing on the long side once a pattern sets up. Will this keep me completely safe? Of course not, there is always risk involved, that is why there is the potential for good reward.

If I am wrong, make a list of stocks that are under performing the market right now. If we decide to drop, these stocks will likely make the best short side candidates. And duh, do not use inverse ETFs. I will post some charts of the weaker stocks in the next few updates.

Have a great trading week!

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Thursday, December 2, 2010

GOOG


GOOG could be setting up for a nice short side trade. After a nice high volume down day, the stock has limped up and formed narrow range candles the past two sessions. the stock is still trading above the 200 day moving average, which demands respect, but it can be watched for an aggressive entry, with good risk reward, as seen by the first two downside targets mapped out.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

NFLX


One of the strongest stocks this year is movie rental juggernaut NFLX. On Wednesday, the stock completed a Dark Cloud Cover Japanese Candlestick pattern. While the stock is overbought and stretched from its 10 day moving average, the uptrend is very strong, and any short past a trade needs to be monitored extra carefully. It may set up as a nice long side entry after a rest.

tiny

tinymjs at gmail dot com