Showing posts with label Market Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Analysis. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
7 Buy Signals, but will it matter?
The market got cracked on Tuesday, for the second time in 3 sessions. Even a late day attempt at a rally could not save the day, and yes I thought it would.
In my market timing work, I have 7 buy signals for tomorrow plus the FOMC meeting which has a bullish tendency. Most of the signals are short term, which means that on early weakness I will be watching for a buying opportunity, but I will need more evidence likely AFTER the FOMC announcement to stick it out.
To be clear, it's a wild card until the dust settles from the FOMC announcement, despite that there will likely be nothing important said. Don't let anyone tell you they knew we would rally or knew we would sell off. they are PURELY guessing. There is no "trend" or another made up word for what a guess is. Despite what anyone dreams of happening, ther eis no predictability.
We are at support, we are oversold, but that doesn't mean we can't shake it out again. For now at least, I'll be using those buy signals for a background on a long side entry.
tiny
In my market timing work, I have 7 buy signals for tomorrow plus the FOMC meeting which has a bullish tendency. Most of the signals are short term, which means that on early weakness I will be watching for a buying opportunity, but I will need more evidence likely AFTER the FOMC announcement to stick it out.
To be clear, it's a wild card until the dust settles from the FOMC announcement, despite that there will likely be nothing important said. Don't let anyone tell you they knew we would rally or knew we would sell off. they are PURELY guessing. There is no "trend" or another made up word for what a guess is. Despite what anyone dreams of happening, ther eis no predictability.
We are at support, we are oversold, but that doesn't mean we can't shake it out again. For now at least, I'll be using those buy signals for a background on a long side entry.
tiny
Saturday, October 20, 2012
The S&P should trade below Friday's low
Based on the way the S&P Futures closed, they should trade down to the 1416.50 number, at a minimum. Below that, next support sits at 1404.75.
Despite the fact that we had a large range trend day down, and the model for Monday is a morning consolidation, those lows have a better chance of being tested early in the week, and may even get there off the Sunday night re-open or Monday AM on residual selling.
If not, and we instead correct in an upside drifting fashion, then I will be watching for a post FOMC sell off to those levels.
tiny
Despite the fact that we had a large range trend day down, and the model for Monday is a morning consolidation, those lows have a better chance of being tested early in the week, and may even get there off the Sunday night re-open or Monday AM on residual selling.
If not, and we instead correct in an upside drifting fashion, then I will be watching for a post FOMC sell off to those levels.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Will it be this easy?
The market hit a support point on Friday, 10-12, and today, 10-15 it got the start of what looks like it could be a multi-day rally, at a minimum.
The question I am currently pondering is whether its this easy here to just go to new highs, or if the market will throw a wrench in the gears and send out down after a lame bounce here.
Volume was ok today, and therefore you can't say that it was just a b.s. bounce.
Tomorrow will be interesting. I want to see if the buyers step up and keep the fire stoked, especially if we see early weakness. With GS set to report, as well as some 9:15 numbers, it could be a qualified gap to start the session.
tiny
The question I am currently pondering is whether its this easy here to just go to new highs, or if the market will throw a wrench in the gears and send out down after a lame bounce here.
Volume was ok today, and therefore you can't say that it was just a b.s. bounce.
Tomorrow will be interesting. I want to see if the buyers step up and keep the fire stoked, especially if we see early weakness. With GS set to report, as well as some 9:15 numbers, it could be a qualified gap to start the session.
tiny
Friday, September 14, 2012
Monday, September 10, 2012
Friday, September 7, 2012
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Friday, August 31, 2012
Off we go to Jackson Hole
I woke up early today to have some blood work done, and I figured that was a good enough reason not to do a video last night, in case there were any overnight events that moved us ahead of the 10AM speech by Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole symposium.
I had been looking for buying ahead of the meeting, but expected it yesterday, which never materialized. After the way we sold off the last 30 minutes I was watching for a nice gap down to the 1390s (basis the S&P Futures) for a buying op, but instead we gaped up pretty nicely today as there was buying in the Euro as well as the index futures in the early morning. I tried a short, but scratched it, and now I'm now waiting for 10AM to see how the market reacts to whatever comes out of Bernanke's mouth.
My plan for the day is to stay small, because the one thing I hate most is digging a hole on a day that there will likely not be an opportunity to get out of. Remember, risk first.
There will likely be some volatility off the speech, but it probably won't last long, and we should deaden up ahead of the long weekend, so it can get even more choppy and light than what we have been seeing as of late.If it does that I'll be packing up for the long weekend. If I stick around, I'll throw commentary up on twitter, so follow me there @tinyreal
Sign up for FREE to http://stockmarkettrendsx.com and get on my list to receive the Market Autopsy video this wekend.
Have a great Labor day!
tiny
I had been looking for buying ahead of the meeting, but expected it yesterday, which never materialized. After the way we sold off the last 30 minutes I was watching for a nice gap down to the 1390s (basis the S&P Futures) for a buying op, but instead we gaped up pretty nicely today as there was buying in the Euro as well as the index futures in the early morning. I tried a short, but scratched it, and now I'm now waiting for 10AM to see how the market reacts to whatever comes out of Bernanke's mouth.
My plan for the day is to stay small, because the one thing I hate most is digging a hole on a day that there will likely not be an opportunity to get out of. Remember, risk first.
There will likely be some volatility off the speech, but it probably won't last long, and we should deaden up ahead of the long weekend, so it can get even more choppy and light than what we have been seeing as of late.If it does that I'll be packing up for the long weekend. If I stick around, I'll throw commentary up on twitter, so follow me there @tinyreal
Sign up for FREE to http://stockmarkettrendsx.com and get on my list to receive the Market Autopsy video this wekend.
Have a great Labor day!
tiny
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Jackson Hole
I've been saying over the past few days that I expect the market to bounce into Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, which is scheduled for 10AM Friday. Starting a few weeks back, I've had a good opinion that QE3 would not be announced and that it could be a letdown. I would love to tout myself as an expert in the economy, but the opinion was crafted based on input from some the writers that I read every week, and who's opinion I value. of course, the end result remains to be seen, but not for too much longer.
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
Friday, August 24, 2012
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Can't get the video to record
I can't get the video to record so heres what I'm looking at for Friday.
We finished off near the lows of the session, after a gap down could not fade. We are in the mdist of a pullback form highs, but are approaching support. Watch the 20 EMA on the daily SPY chart, and then 139.25, which fills a lap from early in the month.
It's too early for me to call a top, but others are more aggressive with that call. I think we will need to get the Jackson Hole conference out of the way, along with the end of Summer to get a clearer picture. As of now, we are in a pullback from highs, and that;s Bullish. The trend has NOT changed
For Friday, I'll be watching any early upside for a shorting opportunity (like Thursday that never happened) for a test back down to the lows from Thursday, but a further push or a gap down will be watched for a buying opportunity, as long as there is support and a pattern to lean against.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to sign up to the list at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com to get the Market Autopsy video delivered to your inbox this weekend.
tiny
We finished off near the lows of the session, after a gap down could not fade. We are in the mdist of a pullback form highs, but are approaching support. Watch the 20 EMA on the daily SPY chart, and then 139.25, which fills a lap from early in the month.
It's too early for me to call a top, but others are more aggressive with that call. I think we will need to get the Jackson Hole conference out of the way, along with the end of Summer to get a clearer picture. As of now, we are in a pullback from highs, and that;s Bullish. The trend has NOT changed
For Friday, I'll be watching any early upside for a shorting opportunity (like Thursday that never happened) for a test back down to the lows from Thursday, but a further push or a gap down will be watched for a buying opportunity, as long as there is support and a pattern to lean against.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to sign up to the list at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com to get the Market Autopsy video delivered to your inbox this weekend.
tiny
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Gap up
Looks like this gap will qualify to be watched for a fade.
Going to see if the cash S&P gets its new high here, QQQ appears to be gaping into it
tiny
Going to see if the cash S&P gets its new high here, QQQ appears to be gaping into it
tiny
Monday, August 20, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
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