Friday, August 31, 2012

If it were any other day

Textbook, over emotional gap up that led to a gorgeous fade after the letdown as Bernanke disappoints, at least initially.  Then, a gap fill with a divergence that leads to a nice push, pause and follow through.  this is the moves they put in books and trading courses, which reminds me.....

Its an excuse, but screw it, if it were any other day but the day before Labor Day, It would have been a nice morning.

Don't complain, as long as you stayed whole during it. There is a LOT of year left in the tank.


Off we go to Jackson Hole

I woke up early today to have some blood work done, and I figured that was a good enough reason not to do a video last night, in case there were any overnight events that moved us ahead of the 10AM speech by Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole symposium.

I had been looking for buying ahead of the meeting, but expected it yesterday, which never materialized.  After the way we sold off the last 30 minutes I was watching for a nice gap down to the 1390s (basis the S&P Futures) for a buying op, but instead we gaped up pretty nicely today as there was buying in the Euro as well as the index futures in the early morning.  I tried a short, but scratched it, and now I'm now waiting for 10AM to see how the market reacts to whatever comes out of Bernanke's mouth.

My plan for the day is to stay small, because the one thing I hate most is digging a hole on a day that there will likely not be an opportunity to get out of.  Remember, risk first.

There will likely be some volatility off the speech, but it probably won't last long, and we should deaden up ahead of the long weekend, so it can get even more choppy and light than what we have been seeing as of late.If it does that I'll be packing up for the long weekend.  If I stick around, I'll throw commentary up on twitter, so follow me there @tinyreal

Sign up for FREE to and get on my list to receive the Market Autopsy video this wekend.

Have a great Labor day!


Thursday, August 30, 2012

A possible scenario

This is ABSOLUTELY influenced by my opinion that we bounce  today at some point.

Right now, we are correcting the push lower from this morning.   A scenario could be a stall out a little bit higher (maybe just under/over 1400) and then a retest drift of/towards the lows. From there, we could see profit taking and a push higher in the afternoon. A change in the breadth (which is currently stinky) and a good pattern to back it up would go along way in building my confidence.

Again, it's an opinion influenced sceanrio, but one that can be considered if you share the same view as mine.


S&P 500 Futures Chart

60 minute, all sessions. 2 fake outs and then the move.


Jackson Hole

I've been saying over the past few days that I expect the market to bounce into Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, which is scheduled for 10AM Friday. Starting a few weeks back, I've had a good opinion that QE3 would not be announced and that it could be a letdown. I would love to tout myself as an expert in the economy, but the opinion was crafted based on input from some the writers that I read every week, and who's opinion I value. of course, the end result remains to be seen, but not for too much longer.

It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.

At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible.  What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels.  While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.

There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead. 

In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called"  or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are).  See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.

I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.


Acceptable gap down to start the session

Decent size gap down to start the sesison

I'll be watching for a buying op off the opening push here to/below the overnight lows.

If we don;t get a bounce I'll likely head to the sidelines but be watching for a boucne later on.

My opinion is that they get some kind of bounce ahead of Bernanke speech tomorrow.  Of course, if that is the genral consensus then of course we have to be aware of the overweight to one side

As I finish this we are retesting 1400, let's see if it can hold on the short term.


Tuesday, August 28, 2012

No video for today and the market

Since Monday was such a lame trading day, I decided not to do a video update.I'll likely do at least one this week, but it should be a low volume low volatility week ahead of Friday's Bernanke speech, although we do have nearly 9 points of range, basis the S&P Futures already in for the first hour today, which is large compared to recent activity

I still think we test up to the highs at a minimum and we did get some responsive buying this AM, which is Bullish, but yesterdays highs need to be challenged to keep the Bull happy.

Despite how boring the market may be, I still put out a daily update, and you can get it for FREE by signing up at

Monday, August 27, 2012

Is AAPL really a Super Guru?

Is $AAPL really a super guru in disguise?  They have almsot as many lawsuits as the bad breathed scam artists do!


Friday, August 24, 2012

S&P 500 video for Monday, August 27th, 2012

The desperate super gurus

There is absolutely NOTHING I love more than when a super guru exhibits his desperation to keep his harem of random nannies and his extravagant sushi meals well funded by lying about their performance and touting a general direction opinion as an unbelievable play.  If you look at the public track record, they STINK! Everything they hype up and give is just a front running ploy and winds up cracking anyone that follows them.

One out of dozens that lose actually goes in the direction that they say and they think they are killing it?  Pu lease!

DO NOT GIVE THESE CRIMINALS A DOLLAR OF YOUR MONEY.  No matter how much they beg and plead for you to read their super terrific (which is really just robbery) deals on their super-hyped garbage classes, seminars and rooms, don't fall for it.

You will NEVER succeed long term following blindly.  This is why they never have long term members, they all get blown out eventually. Can you afford to be one of those blowouts at their expense? The only reason that the super gurus even survive at all is because the come up with new scams


The wheels have already started turning, and the heats going to get much worse on these filthbags. They will soon be screaching how they "help people!", but really all they do is held them out of their money.  Don't be one of those that are financing their lifestyle.  Many of you have already done the right thing, which is getting these thieves the attention they deserve. For those who are on the fence, contact the SEC, FNRA, NFA, CFTC, your State Attorney General

If you have any questions, or need assistance, contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com and I will do my best to help. I've already helped some people get back some fo the money that was scammed from them, and I'll do my best to help you too.


Gap fade to end the week

The gap wasn't that big to start the session,  so I want to wait to see if it will push down into the overnight lows

May have missed the opportunity picking it up at 1396.50 (basis the futures) which was a key level from a few weeks back (the 13th to be exact)


Thursday, August 23, 2012

Can't get the video to record

I can't get the video to record so heres what I'm looking at for Friday.

We finished off near the lows of the session, after a gap down could not fade.  We are in the mdist of a pullback form highs, but are approaching support.  Watch the 20 EMA on the daily SPY chart, and then 139.25, which fills a lap from early in the month.

 It's too early for me to call a top, but others are more aggressive with that call.  I think we will need to get the Jackson Hole conference out of the way, along with the end of Summer to get a clearer picture. As of now, we are in a pullback from highs, and that;s Bullish.  The trend has NOT changed

For Friday, I'll be watching any early upside for a shorting opportunity (like Thursday that never happened) for a test back down to the lows from Thursday, but a further push or a gap down will be watched for a buying opportunity, as long as there is support and a pattern to lean against.

Have a great weekend and don't forget to sign up to the list at to get the Market Autopsy video delivered to your inbox this weekend. 


How Soon is Now? - The Smiths (Full Version)

Did you just let Screech in the club? Adult Language Advisory

Better late than never! S&P 500 video for Thursday, August 23rd, 2012

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Gap down

We start today with a gap down, but above out overnight lows I'll be watching to see if they get tested first before stepping in for a fade tiny

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

U2 - Bad - Live Aid 1985 [HQ]

How are those super gurus doing calling the top weeks ago

Those filthbag lying criminal front running super scumbag gurus who called the highs "soon after" the last FOMC meeting really nailed it I guess!

They know nothing about the market, or te trend that move it.  Stop being sheep!

Learn how the market works, don;t rely on someone else's gut, feelings or dreams (yes they pick stocks based on dreams!)


Gap up

Looks like this gap will qualify to be watched for a fade.

Going to see if the cash S&P gets its new high here, QQQ appears to be gaping into it


Friday, August 17, 2012

Fiona Apple - Criminal- For the super gurus that front ran Facebook

U2 - Mysterious Ways

The super gurus never quit

Despite being slapped by regulatory agencies, these filth bag, bad breathed freak super gurus still hype up FB.

Whoever would call that stock LONG into the lockup period expiration so they can use the pump to sell their shares should be in jail, period.

Funny, those that call brokers scumbags and make comments about how they are helping people are doing nothing but robbing the sheep that are following them.

If you have been victimized by these crooks, contact the NFA, SEC, FNRA, CFTC, your State Attorney General and the FTC.   

Give them what they deserve.

Learn to trade, not follow blindly


Move before the open

The market was down about 2 ticks a few minutes before the open, when buying came in and sent us to take out the highs from yesterday into the opening bell

sicne then, we've seen some rejection, as work gets done adn profits secured.

From here, it could just chop it out, but I will be watching for a retest up if we cna hold the overnight range on a retest down


Thursday, August 16, 2012

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

S&P 500 video for Thursday, August 16th, 2012

So far, I'm wrong

If you watched my video or are a subscriber to my list (it's free, sign up at you heard me talk about today's plan, whcih was to watch for early upsdie for a shoritng opportunity for a test back down to the Tuesday lows.

We did test, and even break the lows from Tuesday, but that was in the overnight session.  So far today, while the push up early on has pulled in and was faded, we haven't come near today;s lows, nevermind yesterdays.

My plan for the afternoon is to watch to see what breaks out of this congestion we are seeing.  We had a nice triangle, but the break did not get to the highs, and now the break down from that pattern hasn't led anywhere either.

We "should" move this afternoon, as the ADX On the 5 minute chart is now below the 15 mark, but  direction is still up in the air, so to speak.



Good news

The good news is that the triangle that I highlighted in the previous post suggests that the chop, at least for today may be coming to an end sooner than later.

Despite us being mildly positive on the session, the tirangle does NOT predict direction, just that a move is coming

It loks like it may enve break before lunchtime, but we'll see how that plays out

The first targets off a break are the extremes of the pattern


Triangle on the S&P Futures

The Euro

The daily chart of the EUR/USD pair looks like its in a bear flag here. June 2010 lows are 1.1875 and would be the target if this gets confirmed.


We'll have to wait on that TLT double bottom

TLT double bottom that was mentioned yesterday looks broken.  It never confirmed, but the formation si now cracked.  Watch for the 200 day as the next support down at 120.33


Small overnight range

Small overnight range and a lame gap will keep me on the sidelines for the open.

I'll be watching for this tight range to break and watch for a trade off of that move (fade or go with)


Tuesday, August 14, 2012

S&P 500 Video For Wednesday, August 15th, 2012


Possible double bottom setting up here on the daily chart of the TLT

So far, we fell .05 shy of testing the lows from August 9th, but its clsoe enough as thye say.

Nowhere near confirmed yet, just a possible setup as of now, and there's nothing wrong with watching


Drop down back into the overnight muck

Day off yesterday

Not on purpose, it just turned out that way!


An accetpable gap

We have an acceptable gap to watch for a fade, but the current development leaves me looking for a push over the overnight highs before watching for an entry


Friday, August 10, 2012

Paul Schatz on CNBC today, Friday August 10th at 3PM Eastern

Tune in to CNBC at 3PM today, Friday, August 10th and see what Paul Schatz has to say about the market and the economy

It's pretty amazing to me that someone who was once slamemd for "not having an original thought in his head" by some scumbag front running  pump and dumper gets so many appearances.

Apparently, those that are in the know tend to disagree with that filthbag.

Tune in and see for yourself!


And another coil

Follow me on Twitter @tinyreal


A little early, but a coil is forming

Decent size gap down

Gap down to start the session qualifies as one to watch for a fade

We are close to the overnight lows, so I will watch to se eif we test there and pivot off of it.


video for today

Have no idea where my video went

It was a choppy day yesterday, and I'm watching to see if we get any Friday action.  If not, and we just chop it out, it will be an early weekend


Thursday, August 9, 2012

Small gap to start the session

Small gap to start the session, so I'm passing on watching for a fade here

I want to watch tos ee if we try the overnight lows before the small fill.  If we do, I'll be watching that for an entry


Wednesday, August 8, 2012

S&P 500 Video for Thursday, August 9th, 2012

They fill the gap, but that's it, for now

Tuesday's lows were 1395.50, and we kissed it, now the lap comes in at 96.75

If we can't hold up here, we can see a retest of those overnight lows

No real heavy economic reports due out, but we do have the crude inventories report due out at 10:30


Gap down

Today's gap down meets my requirements to watch for a fade.

I'd like to see the overnight lows get tested, as the gap from yesterday is still open and that comes around the overnighters, but we will see what the agenda is early on.


Tuesday, August 7, 2012

TNT Forever Shine On

S&P video for Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

Ready, set, chop...

The market continues to chop it up here, but at least the range is better than yesterday

Volume is coming in better as well, as the Bulls are continuing to fight here, trying to stay above 1400 for the close.

We could see some fireworks into the last half hour, but I'm not counting my chickens before they lay their what do you call them


Let's look at these 2 scenarios...

We have eased off the highs after coming just shy of the May 1st levels, basis the S&P Futures.

We are now creeping down towards the high volume level of the day, which is 1399.25. If/when we get there, two things could play out:

We stop there and get a bounce back to the highs OR we slow down, build some value and then trade lower, to the open first and then yesterday high volume level at 1394.

Breadth is still ok (currently just over +1k), but like yesterday, is easing off it's best levels.  This will have change to give the Bulls a shot in the arm.


First hour is in

With yesterday being a narrow range day, we have to watch for a first hour breakout/breakdown that actually catches some momentum to see if we have a trend day

currently, we are at the highs, so a breakout is more likely than a breakdown, but for aggressive Bulls, the question has to be whether it will stick or not.

So far, the only shorts that are trapped are the ones that sold the open, the 1400 (basis the S&P Futures) sellers have not been punished yet, but another have the late to the 1400 party buyers.

It's another chopperific morning, but as I said in my video last night, I'd rather see a morning consolidation and then an afternoon expansion in volatility.

Of course, what I'd rather see is not what happens, sometimes the market doesn't get my memos!


SPY resistance?

Looking for 1400

No fade of the open, now looking to see if they try for 1400, basis the S&P futures (they are already there on the cash)


Gap up

Not a huge one, but one that qualifies as a potential fading op here as we take out yesterday's highs

Are they going to go to 1400 first or will they fade it off the open?


Monday, August 6, 2012

S&P 500 video For Tuesday, August 7th, 2012

FB analysis

Wow is this brutal!

6 point range on the session, makes last Monday;s 11 pointer seem like a large range day.  We can't even put in a 10 point range, which is what I tend to look for at the least on a narrow range session.

With still 2 hours to go I guess we could break this logjam here and extend the range a bit, but I wouldn't count on it, and as of now, it's just completely brutal.


Paul Schatz on Fox Business at 1PM

Paul Schatz will be on Fox Business at 1PM Eastern

Here's the release from Paul:

FOX Business Monday at 1pm est
Posted August 5, 2012
I am going to be on FOX Business' Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below.

After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday's data were "better than expected", but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth.  And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal "seasonal adjustments" accounted for a significant number of jobs created. 

What continues to amaze me is how many "experts" think this recovery is anything other than normal following a financial crisis.  As I have said for three years, the economy we are living through right now is what typically happens after a systemic meltdown.  It's lukewarm, tepid and any other adjective you want to throw in.  If history continues to guide us, the real progress on the jobs front will happen on the other side of the next recession, which I happe n to believe will be mild given the almost $3T in cash on corporate balance sheets and how lean corporate America has become.

The markets reacted very favorably to the news on Friday, but Europe and our futures were already in rally mode before the employment report was released.  With the disappointing lack of news from our Fed and the ECB and the positive jobs report, the Dow ended last week almost exactly where it began the week.  As I mentioned in the last few Street$marts, there are a few key indicators to watch for clues to the next big market move.

On the positive side, high yield bonds are making new highs and the semiconductors are trying to step up and lead.  But the Dow Jones Transportation index, S&P Mid Cap 400 and Russell 2000 Small Cap need to get into gear for this rally to last much longer.  We also need to see less defensive sectors outperform the market.  For a while now, it's been consumer staples, utilitie s, REITs and biotech, not your typical healthy bull market leadership.

Could the Dow reach up to visit its 2012 peak?  Sure.  But unless something changes dramatically, I think it will be your typical summer selling opportunity in a presidential election year more than anything else.

As always, please feel free to contact me directly at  203.389.3553 or by hitting reply with any questions or comments.


Early analysis

Watching these highs

No new highs on the last uptick, but its far from Bearish.  Breadth pretty decent at +1400s, but not what it was Friday


10 point range

10 point live range on the session comes in at 1399.75 (I would think 1400 would be kissed at that point) or  down at 85.50

On expected choppy days, I like to watch for the first 10 points to be established to get a feel for the early on structure.  Obviously, there's no guarantee it happens, or that these levels are the boundaries of that range.  we could uptick and then turn around and have to adjust the numbers


Small gap up

We have a small gap up to start the session/week, and it appears it already filled.

I'm looking to see what we do at overnight highs

Usually, 2 way trading, at least in the morning after a big day is the norm


Friday, August 3, 2012

Market Update

Initial fade off the overnight highs didn't go very far, and then we walked it back up to the ISM Number. SO far, the release is providing more of a flutter than anything so we'll see if the Bulls want to make it a trend day or not.

1387.50 is a big number, it's not only Monday's high, but the best level we have seen in a number of months.

We could rotate down before that number, to give the super aggressive Bulls fits, but for now, we are holding steady here as we decide where we want to go.  If we get the 87.50s, do we double top it there or rip it through and head for the blue skies?

As I finish this up we are now only a few ticks off those highs


Nice gap up

The Jobs Report has put a cherry on top of a ice move overnight by the market.  The market started getting Off the European session and a not bad Jobs report juiced it a little bit more

We now have a nice size gap up that I'll be looking to fade it off the right setup and some resistance to lean into.

Overnight highs are the first level of interest for me.

Have a great day


Thursday, August 2, 2012

Decent size gap

I'll be loking to fade it, with confirmation, of course


Wednesday, August 1, 2012

The Fed in about 30

The FOMC announcement is set for about 30 minutes form now

In my opinion, there will not be a QE3 announcement today.  What this does to the market is the big question, and despite what some super gurus may tell you, it's a crap shoot.

Reacting to the reaction of the announcement is alwasy the more prudent strategy, so I'll be on the sideliens awaiting movement, if indeed it does happen. I think we should get some sort of movement, but who knows?

Remember, we still have the ECB announcement tomorrow and Job Numbers on Friday.