What Did the Fed Do? What's a 'Taper'? And Is Ben Bernanke a ...
http://www.newyorker.com Thu, 19 Dec 2013 00:33:07 GMT
On Wednesday, the outgoing Fed chairman exited his final conference looking good.
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Showing posts with label Fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fed. Show all posts
Thursday, December 19, 2013
How Big Ben will be remembered
5 Takeaways on How Bernanke Will Be Remembered - Five Things ...
http://blogs.wsj.com Wed, 18 Dec 2013 04:16:04 GMT
As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's tenure draws to a close, The Wall Street Journal asked prominent economists to weigh in on how the history books will remember him. #1: Mark Gertler, the Henry and Lucy ...
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http://blogs.wsj.com Wed, 18 Dec 2013 04:16:04 GMT
As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's tenure draws to a close, The Wall Street Journal asked prominent economists to weigh in on how the history books will remember him. #1: Mark Gertler, the Henry and Lucy ...
Read more ...
Friday, September 7, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Jackson Hole
I've been saying over the past few days that I expect the market to bounce into Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, which is scheduled for 10AM Friday. Starting a few weeks back, I've had a good opinion that QE3 would not be announced and that it could be a letdown. I would love to tout myself as an expert in the economy, but the opinion was crafted based on input from some the writers that I read every week, and who's opinion I value. of course, the end result remains to be seen, but not for too much longer.
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
Monday, August 6, 2012
Paul Schatz on Fox Business at 1PM
Paul Schatz will be on Fox Business at 1PM Eastern
Here's the release from Paul:
Here's the release from Paul:
| FOX Business Monday at 1pm est |
| Posted August 5, 2012 |
| I am going to be on FOX Business' Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below. After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday's data were "better than expected", but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth. And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal "seasonal adjustments" accounted for a significant number of jobs created. What continues to amaze me is how many "experts" think this recovery is anything other than normal following a financial crisis. As I have said for three years, the economy we are living through right now is what typically happens after a systemic meltdown. It's lukewarm, tepid and any other adjective you want to throw in. If history continues to guide us, the real progress on the jobs front will happen on the other side of the next recession, which I happe n to believe will be mild given the almost $3T in cash on corporate balance sheets and how lean corporate America has become. The markets reacted very favorably to the news on Friday, but Europe and our futures were already in rally mode before the employment report was released. With the disappointing lack of news from our Fed and the ECB and the positive jobs report, the Dow ended last week almost exactly where it began the week. As I mentioned in the last few Street$marts, there are a few key indicators to watch for clues to the next big market move. On the positive side, high yield bonds are making new highs and the semiconductors are trying to step up and lead. But the Dow Jones Transportation index, S&P Mid Cap 400 and Russell 2000 Small Cap need to get into gear for this rally to last much longer. We also need to see less defensive sectors outperform the market. For a while now, it's been consumer staples, utilitie s, REITs and biotech, not your typical healthy bull market leadership. Could the Dow reach up to visit its 2012 peak? Sure. But unless something changes dramatically, I think it will be your typical summer selling opportunity in a presidential election year more than anything else. As always, please feel free to contact me directly at or by hitting reply with any questions or comments. Paul |
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