Monday, October 31, 2011

YouTube Issues

Having issues with YouTube or my recorder, cant figure out which right now, so no Stock Market Trading Watch List video tonight.

Here are my thoughts:

Ugly way to end the month, but being overbought it wasn't that much of a surprise. The NASDAQ 100 performed the best, and volume pulled in on the NASDAQ side, so a good sign. The Russell also held up well, relative to how it's been moving.

Banks and Brokers go creamed, while the Cyclicals and XLB also under-performed. This is NOT good.

Still Bullish here and looking for support on a test down, but I want to see a Bullish volume pattern and recent leaders act well.

Have a great trading day on Tuesday!


S&P 500 video for November 1st, 2011

The rule of tiny

When I'm not around, the market tends to move in gulps. Can it happen again today? It would be a big change form this early nonsense.

Outta here until at least the afternoon if not the rest of the day


Someone wants to know: why the videos?

What else is there to do?


Aerosmith- Walkin' the Dog

Trading is on the light side

Brutal chop here, Im done until the afternoon as soon as Im flat



A-D line is only -1600 now, was as low as -2k earlier

Still crapola, but trying to improve here


Aerosmith - Kings and Queens (Full Version)

MF Global Chapter 11

Anyone surprised?


S&P back below the 200 day

If you watched my video from the weekend, I was watching for another digestion day, so for that model to stand, this downtrend has to be

The S&P 500 is back below the 200 day moving average here, and if this sticks, we can actually see a pullback.....finally.

Too early to tell here if we just trend it down or get the congestion day, but so far breadth is stinky at -1900s

The Bulls have work to do


Nice gap down

Nice gap down to start the day

I'm watching for a fade entry


Sunday, October 30, 2011

Aerosmith - No More No More

S&P 500 video for 10/31/11


After getting a bounce off the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing higher, MRVL has hit resistance from multiple moving averages, and appears to be in a stealth bear flag. This is currently counter to the market and parent sector trends, and if confirmed, suggests a move towards the 12.20s, followed by the 11.20s.


Friday, October 28, 2011

Blog will be dark

As I'm typing this, I'm getting ready to leave for the day.

We are down 5 pints, but there still 3 hours to go to until the start of the day. If we gap down better than 4 points, Ill be watching for a fade.

I'll try to pop in during the day as I will be watching the trading unfold, but the blog may be dark if I can;t get away to post.


Thursday, October 27, 2011

S&P 500 video for Friday, October 28th, 2011


I am offering free 15 minutes of coaching to anyone that doesn't fall for the scam of a class that is being given about how to watch TV.

Refuse to be swindled by these horrid and nefarious cretins! They've done enough damage to their own friends (well ex-friends they have none left) and families, so don't be a victim of their evil "take all your money" agenda.

Contact me and Ill give you 15 minutes of coaching for FREE, and believe me that's all you need to learn about how to watch TV, but we can talk about anything else you like.

tinymjs at gmail dot com


200 day holds for now

The 200 day moving average on the SPY holds like a champ for now

Breadth is very storng, but with this type of gap, it will take a while to turn it around, of they are going to.

TICK so far not confirming this upside, just as a side note


Biggggggggggggggg gap

Big gap up to start the day

These are the gaps that you wait and watch for, big, and news related

Can it just keep going? Sure, but it's not high odds with at least some sort of ut a dip.

SPY will be opening into the 200 day moving average


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Blog will be dark for most of the next 3 days

Ill be out and about, but will try to get some updates on, but it may be dark for the entire rest of the week, with the exception of videos


S&P video for Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Iidiots and their hype about "trends"

When it's easy pickings, the super guru criminal hypesters are heroes. They claim the obvious, well known tendencies like "earnings run up", "January Effects" and "Window Dressing" and think that the public is stupid enough to believe that they invented these terms. Do a search on Google and find out how these scumbags steal other people's ideas.

Then, they double talk the living crap out of you, as someone has made me aware that one did with AMZN ahead of earnings.

Here it is paraphrased:

"I'd be long if anything (not saying that I will be and I reserve the right to trade it), but I'd not be short or buy puts, if they blow out it can go to 300, but its iffy so be careful, and I might not do anything". Gee, that clears it up.

Now that AMZN wiffed, they can say "oh, I said it was iffy", but if they blew out, they would be chiming on how they knew this would happen.


Please folks, don't fall for the "good guy" routine, or how they use made up tragedy like illnes and accidents to make you feel sorry for them. The only thing these scoundrels care about is taking your money by either pump and dumping, front running or high extortion like fees for nonsense.


Gap down adn then more

We had a mild gap down, but then some acceleration to the downside, with no fade, as of yet

Breadth is pretty nasty which suggests that the Bulls have abandoned least for a few minutes LOL


Friday, October 21, 2011

Here's what I see

I had an early bias today that was wrong, so now what do I see?

First hour high has kept us contained,and we got a push back lower, that held so far like a rock

Now, we have a down cycle turn setting up on a larger intra-day time frame, and a lower high would confirm that.

That being said....

Breadth is still strong at +2200s makes it very tough to fade, cycle turn or not



The SPY broke above the recent range high.

123.51 is now the level to stay above, if we don't stay there, it could be a Bull trap, and lead to a some selling

I'm not calling a high here (already tried that), I'm just mapping out levels to respect


Can we just run it all day?

It would be unusual, but we can see a trend day on option expiration day, it's not out of the question

No fade yet today, and after the first hour, it gets less and less of a chance of happening


TICKs, Breadth

Breadth is strong, +2100 early on

$TICK hasn't really pushed up here with the early morning momentum, but price is certainly making a statement here


Big gap up

Qualifies as one to watch for a fade, so that's what I'll be doing!


Thursday, October 20, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, October 21st, 2011

S&P 500 video for 10/21/11

Calling all NYers!

My friend Ron Brown opened a new pizza parlor!

Check out the review here:

The pictures are making me drool!

Sorry about talking about food, I was once sued for like 35 million dollars for that!


Tom DeMark

Love it!

Here is a great friend and analyst, Paul Schatz on CNBC yet again. By himself, in prime CNBC time. He once had a boss that would abuse and ridicule him, and would talk behind his back because of intense jealousy. When he was gone, the scumbag would still talk bad about him to anyone he could, yet he still tried to use him for his own benefit.

Now that he's been on his own, his star just keeps rising, and it'd the best revenge.

Watch what he has to say here:


Narrow range choppiness

Early downside is getting digested here, starting off with a nice divergence at the lows. We are headed back to breakeven.

breadth is negative but not horrible and VIX has rolled over, so let;s see what happens after we get past 1:30


No real gap

Small gap to start the session, so it's wait and see mode for me here


Tuesday, October 18, 2011

S&P 500 video for October 19th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

Follow Through Day

Unless I hear differently from one of you IBD followers, I am reading that we had a Follow Through Day on the S&P 500, with a better than 2% gain on an increase in volume.

I now look for pullbacks and toss the Bearish bias aside.

We are still under the 200 day moving average on the majority of the majors, which makes me queasy, and I'm surely not chasing this here. If we get a nice pullback, I'll be watching for a buy entry. If not, I'll need a balance area to lean against.


All eyes on AAPL

I don't think AAPL makes or breaks the market at this point, but there will be a big focus on the bellwether's earnings report due out at 5PM Eastern.


Not much to say here

Just amazing to me that the bears could only muster about 7 hours of pullback before ramping this market again.

Volume is coming in higher than the previous few days, and the price percentage gain could be enough by days end to qualify as a Follow Through Day, provided we keep the pace up

Recognized it early (see previous post) but still a little bit surprised we couldn't even get at least a pullback to the short term moving average, never mind the 50 day, which I thought was going to be the case.

Possible scenario: AAPL pop after hours leads to a nice gap up that sells tomorrow?


If this is all the Bears will be able to muster

The upside should be resuming if this is all the Bears could muster, a few hours of downside pressure

Breadth is not screaming, but it's ok in the +300s

Lots of resistance to get through from yesterday;s late range, so definitely not calling it a Bull day here yet, but so far, the Bears have been stuffed and mounted in this morning


Whippy skippy

Price and volume are diverging here

Price saying we have a test of overnight lows in, while volume is sayign we haven;t see enough selling on the test to call a low

It's the battle of who cares more for now


Winding up

market is winding up here for a move, and as I finish typing this, it appears they are trying to push it down out of the opening range


Small gap

Small gap up to start the session, so watching the first move off the opening ehre


Monday, October 17, 2011

S&P 500 video for Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Looking for a low into lunch

Let's see if we retest the lows and hold

Breadth is crappy, but not as skewed as we've seen

Watching for a cycle turn down here to put in a lunch time low

This would be short term only, and whether it leads to anything bigger remains to be seen.


Well, I wanted a pullback

Getting the pullback that I was waiting for, but couldn't we fill the gap first?

volume coming in a bit higher than Friday's trade, and breadth is -1700s, which isn't horrific compered to what we've seen lately, but is in no way bullish

Let's see what happens when Europe closes in a little bit.


Watching for a fade here

Gap qualified as a fade able one, now lets see if we get an entry


Friday, October 14, 2011

Audioslave - Like A Stone

Into short term resistance

we are right at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the days range here and have a short term cycle turn down

See if it kicks in or we run up to the highs


Sign up now!

Stock Market Trends X

downside exhaustion did come in

We saw it on the lows at 10:23 then a divergence just now


Have not seen downside volume come in yet

Plenty of exhaustive buying on the way up pre market, but no exhaustive selling so far, which suggests more downside to be seen

may not be much of it though, it;s only for a fade as of now


So far

Small fade, but nothing to get super excited about that's for sure

We just printed a cycle turn down, see if we get more weakness


Nice fat gap up

Big gap up to start the day, printing divergence right now, watching for a fade entry off the open


Thursday, October 13, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, October 14th, 2011

S&P 500 video for 10/14/11

Even with crappy breadth

The gap fill is the next target on the upside, even with the crappy breath reading. I'm going to be watching for a pullback here for a long side entry for a gap closure


follow me on Twitter

1 tick shy

We came one tick shy of the overnight lows

work done?

we'll see soon enough


Not in a rush

I'm not in a rush to fade this here

I'm watching for this to clean up on a break below the overnight lows.

I may be over conservative here, but my cycles say we can go a bit lower before ending this current move

Ok, so why not short?

That's a consideration, but I have issues dating back ooooooooo 12 years with going with gaps within the first 15 minutes


Wednesday, October 12, 2011

S&P 500 Video for October 13th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Thursday, October 13th, 2011

11 to go

11 minutes until the close on the NY session, and the market, which just 75 minutes ago was showing the price % increase to qualify as a Follow Through Day, is now falling out of bed. It's not a big fall, so I guess it's like a day bed or something, but definitely not closing at the highs today barring a market miracle


Price action

This last swing down was greater than the previous swing up, which suggests we could see some more weakness into the close here. 1205 is my short term line in the sand, as that seemed to be a key pivot earlier and we got a nice reaction off of it.

Breadth is still +1700 so it's very tough to "close your eyes and short" here, thats for sure.

I keep thinking back to Monday where we got a late dipsy doo and it led to a melt up into the last half hour.

Let's see what happens as we move into 3:30



the $VIX just popped up from lows, but it's still down 7% on the session


New TICK lows

$TICK just hit a new low as price has rolled over after hitting new highs.

Breadth now "only" +1700s, still strong here.

I'm waiting for a divergence, last hour coming up.


If we close here or better

I wonder if IBD will call it a Follow Through Day

I assume they will, but the volume, while greater than the previous 2 days, is nowhere near impressive


Quick look at the market

breadth is nice and strong, although still not the levels we've seen recently(like Monday) when we get rip roaring days

Cycles (short term intra-day) suggest we could see a pull in here, but fighting the trend with breadth backing it up can be a tough road. Right as I'm typing this, I got a bearish divergence almost immediately followed by a bullish one on the volume momentum indicator that I use.

Yes we are overbought. yes the most devious thing is to trap the late comers into the move. Neither of that matters if the buyers continue to keep stepping in on dips as they have been doing today.

I'm running out for a bit but will try to be back for the last hour.



89 EMA on the SPY



Got a nice flush to the downside volume wise, which is what I was looking for earlier if we tested the low end of the range, which didn't happen.

The question now is whether this is downside exhaustion (I'm talking all short term here folks) or if this was the first shot across the bow and there is more downside to come.

We'll see soon enough, but downside is a hard case to argue for now, as breadth is still mighty strong at almost +1800


Severely overbought

The other day I posted about the current upswing we are in. We've now extended to the biggest swing including two piece moves since the first push lower in August

This puts us into the "severely overbought" stage, but that doesn't mean we can't go higher. There is a possibility we get crow-barred, but never underestimate momentum when its on a run, it can extend much further than you would first think.

I hate to sound perma-bullish here, but this swing has to exhaust itself before it's going to get a pull in.

Could that be today? Absolutely, but there's no use guessing if it's going to be.


We have volume

We have volume and we are trading above the first hour's highs. Now let's see if they are going to bring us up all day like they did on Monday


It's too early

While price and breadth are acting well, and volume is coming in better than the last few days (not hard to do),it;s way too early to call this anything yet as we are still within the first hour.

In my opinion, and this isn't backed up by any thorough research or anything, just form personal experience and talking with other traders, more money has been lost not waiting for confirmation than any other mistake with the exceptions of not using stop losses


Did I say low end of the range?

Did I say low end of today's range? Someone in the market isn't listening as we just took out the overnight highs

I should delete it like the super guru with their paid for Facebook fans do, but I won't be that duplicitous, whatever that means

We arent in a rush, but that doesnt mean we cant get some momentum any time here



SPY is above the 78.6% retracement which suggests at a minimum, a retest of the correction highs

Does it happen today?

We'll see but so far the Bulls are in charge despite by looking for a low end of the range test!


Why Im looking for low end of the range test

We had a push pre market that came on some volume, so Im looking for that to balance out with a push to the downside here

Not looking for us to get killed with this breadth, I just want to see how the range plays out. Even lows of day would still have the market up 8 or so points

As of now, we aren't doing anything but chopping it up here


Early range

Fade was only a small one, but we are fighting here to see if they want a deeper retracement or if they want to stay above the 1200 mark

Breadth is Bullish and strong at +1600s, but not the overwhelmingly skewed levels we've been seeing.

Watching to see if they retest the lows and what they do when they get there


Tuesday, October 11, 2011

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Cracker Barrel

Is it me or does Cracker Barrel kick butt?

My wife won dinner for 2 a few months back at a silent or Chinese auction, or whatever it was called.

The coupon expired in July, but there's a law in NJ that says a GC can't expire, or so I'm told.

Anyway, I didn't tell the manager, I just asked if he would honor it and he said he would.

Heres the dinner:

2 peach ice teas sweetened with Splenda. This is a sugar free home brewed iced tea. Was outstanding.
2 lemonades and 1 milk
1 chicken and dumplings kids meal,
1 chicken fingers kiss meal.
1 chicken fried steak adult meal (wife)
1 most expensive thing on the menu, 10 oz ribeye, baked potato and a tossed salad (guess).
side of mac and cheese

Total was 45 bucks, with the dinner for two it came to 10.79! Awesome! After tip and tax it was just over 20 bucks.

Now the review:

tossed salad excellent with bacon, croutons et al.
Drinks were outstanding
chicken fried steak was great, has brown casserole was great, mashed potatoes with gravy were great, mac and cheese off the charts great, baked potato was great, biscuits were great
My steak- not so great, but thats what I get for trying to get the most expensive meal they had. I ALMOST got the deluxe breakfast thingie they have, but it was 5 bucks cheaper and I wanted to get the full value of the prize. What a dope!

Anyway, despite the crappy steak, an excellent meal, and even without the GC, it was a very fair price.

sorry for the diversion into food talk, I was actually sued once for 25 million or so dollars for talking about food instead of working. Meanwhile, the liar always would say that the clients loved to hear personal stuff. Ahhhhhh hypocrisy at it's best.


Stock Market Trading Watch List for October 12th, 2011

While the market decides what it wants to do...

Let's look at some key support and resistance, on the short term.

Upside, the gap fill is right around the highs form yesterday, so that would be the first level to watch, then whole round number 1200.

On the downside, watch the overnight lows at 1180.75, followed by yesterday's pullback lows at 1176.75.

In the meantime, the market is trying to figure out what it wants to do.

Model is holding , which is AM consolidation


A bunch of people calling a low

There are a bunch of people saying we have the lows in for this correction. This is not surprising considering the move we just had. I think it's a little premature, and I'm still waiting on a Follow Through day.

I'd love to see it AFTER a pull back, because if it comes after the advance we've just seen, it will need a WIDE stop in order to be traded correctly. It will be what it will be, and I've learned not to hope too much for the perfect setup in the market.


watch NFLX

Longer term I think it goes lower, but after yesterday's wide range day, it should digest somewhat this AM means there should be two way trading


We are acting like......

We are acting like we want to test the overnight lows here, but that is swimming upstream against a gap down after a ripper to the upside

Nice conflicting signals here!

We also opened right in the heart of yesterday;s value (where most of the trade took place) which is why we are sputtering with choosing a direction for the time being.

I doubt it lasts


Gap down

Decent size gap down.

It should be a fade-able gap, but that's what I said yesterday!


Monday, October 10, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

S&P 50 video for Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Join Together - THE WHO

Fade the breadth at your own peril!

Breadth is not to be messed with, it remains the Queen of the scene.

What a mini face ripper here as anxious shorts that pounced on the weakness were just turned into fried bologna

I'd love to say I saw this bounce here into the close coming, but I did the see the "stay away from the short side while the breadth is acting this strong" setup.


Ready to pull in?

We are starting to see some weakness in price, but we are sill up 25 points basis the S&P futures and as of now, breadth is still +2300, which is extremely tough to fade.

We did see a TICK flush down to almost -1300, but have since diverged and are now on the bounce again.


Taking a look at this swing

So over lunch, while waiting for the GE repairman, I decided to look at the recent swings to the upside we've seen in this Bear market.

Since it's only a few months old, should we really care about this analysis? I say: Absolutely.

This current swing that started last Tuesday has now exceeded any of the previous swings, not counting multiple piece moves such as the ABC pattern that we saw off the first lows in August.

This tell us:

The swing is mature for a one piece move, but to equal the extent of the largest multi leg swing (that ABC mentioned above), it would have to trade to 120.67, basis the SPY.


The market is overbought, and longs should be protected, but not necessarily sold out, yet.

Remember, we are in a Bear market, despite what anyone wants to tell you. Complacency in a Bull market can be forgiving, but in a Bear market it can be extremely dangerous.


Interesting stat (non market related)

I was going through the statistics of this blog, and noticed that Firefox users just barely trail users of Internet Explorer.

I have grown to officially HATE IE, it completely messes up my PC and bogs everything down to a crawl. Maybe I need to upgrade, but I'd rather just be done with it.

My Firefox is barely any better, but thats my fault because I took advantage of all the plugins they offer, 90% of which I don't use and cant figure out how to uninstall. I love Opera but it crashes all the time, and Chrome is right behind that in crashing.

Im typing this on Safari which is fine. I wish I had a Mac to do it on so i could dedicate this PC just to charts, but then I wouldn't be able to capture any screens for the blog

{sigh} Poor me.



AAPL has some resistance at 384.78, just a few ticks above it's high of day

Above that, watch 388.50


Short term

On the VERY short term, I am watching for the next push up to diverge with $TICK and volume, and cap this upside for the time being.

Not calling for a reversal or anything of the sort, just looking for a short term high to be put in and the market to take a breather.

The afternoon could easily continue the upside


This is not strange in a Bear Market

Days like today may not be the "norm" in a Bear market, but remember that the biggest one day rallies (which this is not close to yet)have all come in a Bear market, so big up days are not that unusual.

As I said yesterday, a Follow Through Day will change my mind, but volume so far today is saying that we won't print one today no matter what the gains are, but maybe that changes.


No match

Divergences are no match for a strong trend. Volume and momentum divegrences are getting ripped through like they aren't even there.

check out the $TICK when you get a chance. Not one close below the zero line, and just a little push through t -27 when it did dip through it. That won't last, but still, pretty impressive first 70 minutes, don't you think?

Breadth is the boss, fight it at your own peril. It's currently +2500 net advancers over decliners. That's very strong

Will we slow down and pull back? sure, but it's unlikely to be much of a dip as it stands now.

Of course, the market can change quickly, Its just not the time for hoping it will here. it will have to start with the internals, or of course, some horrible news. It's not usually a profitable trading plan hoping for bad news.


Line in the sand

The line in the sand for the SPY is 120.06. Above that, it suggests a retest of the highs of the previous correction at 123.51


volume, market

Breadth is very strong. Even though it's only the first half hour, I pay attention when it's this skewed

Volume is under Friday's pace. I track volume on hourly bars, and I just realized that Tradestation tracks the first bar with just the first half hour worth of volume, which I like, but hadn't paid attention too, since I don't usually look at "bulk" volume until we head into lunch.

Anyway, volume on the NYSE and NASDAQ are both below Friday's pace



Volume was expected to be on the light side, but it;s actually on a pretty decent pace here

Holiday trade? Well the market is open, so while it may be a bank holiday, someone forgot to tell the bulls


CELG from the video

CLEG had a big gap up through that coil we highlighted in yesterday's video



The SPY is above the 50 day moving average, for now

Let's see if it holds

Breadth is very strong early on


Overnight volume

Overnight volume was on the light side relative to what we've been seeing

So far, volume came in at the open as expected, and we are above the overnight highs


Nice size gap up

I'll be watching for a fade


Sunday, October 9, 2011

S&P 500 Video For 10/10/11

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Monday, October 10th, 2011

Do I think the downside is over?

The most frequently asked question I received this weekend is whether or not I believe the downside is over.

As of this moment, I still believe we are in a Bear market, and I still believe we have lower prices to be seen. This may change over the next few days, but it will take one specific pattern to change my opinion, and my bias.

Read about it here and while you are there, sign up to the mailing list.


Friday, October 7, 2011

A choppy mess

The gap filled, but since then it's been a choppy mess.

Let's see if the maket tips its hand later on


Off the overnight highs

We are still gapping up nicely, but the overnight highs looked to be around the 50 day on the SPY.

Let's see if we can get a push higher into that key level, but the gap is of the fade able amount even if we don't.


Thursday, October 6, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For October 7th, 2011

S&P 500 video for 10/7/11

So much for that squaring off business

Either the bulls are going to be really right, or get crow-barred on a bad number in the AM

Breadth was the Queen of the scene again


Fantastic article for those dealing with crappy bosses

There's so much that's left out in this article though. What if your boss is a criminal? do you ignore it to keep your job or do you do the right thing to protect those that are being scammed by him?

Definitely interesting thigns to consider


An afternoon scenario

Tomorrow, the Job Numbers are due out at 8:30 AM Eastern.

We've been up for a few days, and we've found some resistance at the SPY 20 day EMA after a little bleed through.

I don't know if the upsise is over, or if we just ramp to new highs by the end of year. There is a tendency ahead of the Job Numbers for traders to square off ahead of them so they dont get hit with a surprise and caught leaning the worng way.

This is just a background, price action is always first and foremost the boss.

Breadth is +1800, so certainly not the reading that a down move starts from.

Wait and see for now, but keeping this in the background


Another day, another rally

We've been headstrong higher since the Tuesday reversal, but we have SPY resistance coming up at the daily 20 period exponental moving average


Small gap

Not a big gap in the market, so passing on the fade for now, will watch for an early setup.

AAPL also not a big gap down, and already fading


Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For October 6th, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Thursday, October 6th, 2011

Sa far, following the model

Gap was faded, early push down was fade, and now the early push up as well

We could form a nice range for the day, which is expected after that big move.



A-D line seems to be getting with the program, maybe it was just an opening skew


Just missed the overnight highs

We came 7 ticks shy of the overnight highs before turning tail.

The next push up may or may not get there, but if it does, will it be too tired to go any further?


Breadth, again

It's early, but breadth is -1100 early and as I type this, the S&P is down 2 points.

I don't know what this divergence signifies, but it's certainly throwing my internals analysis for a loop


fade right off the open

Looks like the fade right off the open was the entry.

As I said earlier, I wait for 5 minutes to be in so missed this move.

No fill yet


Gap up

Gap up to start the day, and i qualifies as big enough to watch for a fade.

As always, I like to wait for the first 5 minutes to be put in


Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Issues with You Tube

I don't know if I am going to be able to get the video up in time for tomorrow. I'm exhausted and need my beauty sleep after all!.


Market traded lower and reversed across almost all sectors. Volume was ok, but not the kind of climatic volume that makes a low. Breadth was suspect for sure. It ended only +595, NOT the kind of reading that a big bull starts from.

Breadth will need to get better, and the Bulls will have to do some work in order for us to go higher. Still PLENTY of resistance to get through. Best scenario is small base building before trying to push higher. Watch the hourly charts for consolidation and flat bases, etc. V reversal type moves lack proper support, so the best scenario is building a basem even on the smaller time frame.

Could this be just a blip and we go back down? Absolutely, as we are still in a Bear market, a 1 day reversal doesn't just end them.

Stocks covered:

XOM nice reversal COP, HES, SLB too. AAPL AMZN GOOG, see if they pause before moving higher. NFLX looks to be forming a Bear flag. GS big move off intra-day lows.

Sorry about the video, hopefully it uploads.


S&P 500 video for 10/5/11

Where did we stop?

The end of day ripper stopped right at the breakdown level form yesterday's bear flag


And just like that!

And just like that we are looking to retest the highs. Will we get there?

Amazing move and the buttologists (already a big hit) are rewarded


Leave the bottom picking to the buttologists

Or whatever they are called! Or the super gurus and their deluxe hyped up classes.

let this finish up and then look for longs after a nice strong impulse.


If we squeeze...

If we do squeeze, it will not be because the market was "projecting" we would or anything of that nature

Internals are not all out horrid, but they are nowhere near bullish.

The trend is down, and does not look finished, but things can change quickly in these volatile markets



Look for AAPL to test it's daily 200 day moving average, at a minimum before a good bounce comes in on it.


Bulls not giving it their all

The trend is still down, and the Bulls got stuffed after 3 approaches back to 1100. breadth now -1200 and never went positive. Up volume flirted with taking over the lead from down volume, but couldn't close the deal

If they give up, it could be an ugly(uglier) afternoon


I really wanted Christie to enter the race

It would have been a victory for all of us with a weight challenge. Man what a party that would have been.


Yes, I'm bearish

I received a message that I shouldn't be a perma-bear and that we can squeeze hard here

First, I'm not a perma bear, but I am bearish when we are in a Bear market, duh! I agree we could get squeezed short term, but we have more than a one or few day squeeze to get us out of the Bear market, sorry to disappoint everyone!

As I've been saying, the internals are not brisk here by any means to the upside, and that makes me cautious on the long side.

If things change, I will, until then, Im flat awaiting an opportunity from either direction.


What will need to happen in the afternoon

Here's what I'm looking for to happen in the afternoon, IF the bulls are going to take control, at least on the short term.

Breadth will have to first get positive, and then trend higher
Positive volume will have to take the lead over down volume, which it's trying to do as we speak
The VIX will have to continue to trade lower
Price action will have to hold previous breakout levels

The bulls will have to get in gear for this to be anything more than a dead rat bounce. So far, all we are doing is printing a retracement in a strong down trend.


And there we go

Breadth getting stronger. Should I just delete the last post like the super gurus with their fake facebook friends do?


Recap of early action

Here's a quick recap and look ahead:

Early blood was bought and we've had a pretty nice push up from the lows

Breadth was not terrible but right on the brink of being there, before bouncing with the market. It's still negative despite the market being green, and that's not good.

Volatility was juiced early, with big batches of movement, but it's calmed down quite a bit.

108.84 basis the SPY was my level to watch for several weeks now, we opened below it, but remounted it, traded back below it, and then remounted it again. It's important that it holds on a closing basis

Volume is very brisk, but downside volume is leading. Also not a good sign.

I can't tell if this is just a fakeout, or if the bulls are just taking their sweet time, doing more work before putting in a short term low.

I'd love to tell you I had a clear picture here, but I just don't. The breadth readings (volume and issues) are keeping me hesitant and leaning on the downside, but not enough to take the plunge short, after that spikey bottom this morning.

The push into lunchtime is a bullish sign, I just wish internals gave a clearer picture. There won't be any "I told you so" here, that's for sure. I'll leave that for the super gurus that never tell you anything but both sides of the story and then claim "they knew it!" "We rock!" "we are doing very well!" it's all nonsense.


Joke from my 5 (almost 6) year old

And yes, I know it's from one of the Nick Jr shows

Why did the chicken cross the playground?

To get to the other slide

tiny (by way of Danny)

Gap filled so now?

Now we see if the Bulls want to step up and put a decent bounce together. So far, a nice pop off lows, but breadth is still -1100 and the TICK only got to +600.

The Bulls will need to do more constructive work to get this thing going here for more than a dead rat bounce


Stalking a low

This could be low being put in here. Once again, not "the" low, but an opportunity for a bounce, at least for a few hours

No confirm yet, but watching here. volatility has kicked up pretty nicely


Here come the overnights

Overnights lows just hit as I started to type this.

I dont think the downside is over if anything this is just a slowing down point

Breadth is now -2100, TICK hasnt gotten above zero yet today


The Trend is DOWN

Gap fade worked for a scalp, but the overall trend is down. TICK cant get above the zero line and breadth is better than yesterday, but still pretty bearish.

We can fiddle around with some upside attempts, but until this is done, any longs are countertrend


Nice size gap

Gap meets the requirement of fade-able, but we may want to clean up with a test of the overnight lows, so there could be some two way action to begin the day here

SPY opens below 108.84 but looking to make a move back above it here


Monday, October 3, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For October 4th, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

The King of infomericals, but not the biggest scumbag to ever do one

He may have been the king of infomericals, but he's nowhere near the biggest scumbag to ever do one. That person deserves to spend the rest of his life behind bars .

Black Sabbath Into The Void

Black Sabbath - Supernaut


Just absolute ugliness here. Breadth was the boss once again, as I've said too many times follow it or get out of the way.


Wil they hold 1100 into the close?

The market is oscillating around the 1100 handle (basis the S&P futures).

Will they hold or fold that key level?


Like a boot on the market's neck

Once again, breadth is the Queen of the market scene here.

Upside will be limited with the breadth so skewed to the downside



Overnight lows hit

Im out for about 90 for lunch

let's see if the internals get ugly here and lead to a test of 1100, basis the S&P futures


And as I post that

1116 holds again

Not wavering on what I se ehere, but we are not in a rush and over lunch


Looks like the overnight lows will be tested

Market structure suggests the overnight lows will be tested.

Breadth and general momentum are what I am watching here.


And thar she blows

Support held nicely, and we got a big pop off the numbers

No regrests, it's gambling holding in front of a number, no matter what some loser super guru tells you

Gap has been faded


Economic numbers due out at 10

We are at support, and we are churning ahead of the number

Will stand aside, and let it play itself out


Gap down

Nice move off the overnight lows, but still enough of a gap to stalk for a fade

I like to wait for the first 5 mnutes to be in, at a minimum.


Sunday, October 2, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Monday, October 3rd, 2011

Back to crash watch

From what I've been reading over the weekend, the majority of doom and gloomers are back on the watch for a crash here.

My opinion is just one of many others, but I think this bear market is more of the oozing kind, and one that lasts a while. Volatility spikes are part of a bear market, but the more people sit and wait for the crash, the else of a chance I think it happens.

And I think I said that before, so sorry for the repeat.

People want a crash so they can pick up the wreckage that margin calls and utter destruction in the market leave behind. But what really happens, is only a few with deep pockets, a big gambling bug, or big risk takers will step in. The rest of us (yes I include myself) will stand there and say there's more to come, this action was very bad and suggests more downside, etc., etc., etc. I don't mind being in that group, because when the dust does settle, and the market does start to pattern up again, the risk becomes tolerable.


S&P 500 Video for Monday, October 3rd, 2011