Taking a look at this swing

So over lunch, while waiting for the GE repairman, I decided to look at the recent swings to the upside we've seen in this Bear market.

Since it's only a few months old, should we really care about this analysis? I say: Absolutely.

This current swing that started last Tuesday has now exceeded any of the previous swings, not counting multiple piece moves such as the ABC pattern that we saw off the first lows in August.

This tell us:

The swing is mature for a one piece move, but to equal the extent of the largest multi leg swing (that ABC mentioned above), it would have to trade to 120.67, basis the SPY.

Therefore...

The market is overbought, and longs should be protected, but not necessarily sold out, yet.

Remember, we are in a Bear market, despite what anyone wants to tell you. Complacency in a Bull market can be forgiving, but in a Bear market it can be extremely dangerous.

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