Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Super Guru's Linkedin call

Where is the super guru?  Probably hard at work getting ready to swindle those silly enough to overpay him for an illegal adventure in the Caribbean!

Another stellar call on LNKD going to sub 50s very soon!  I guess very soon means within the next few days, weeks, months, years, whatever!  I don't even know, do you?


Bernanke eases the tension in the market

Everything gonna be alright! What's there to worry about

yes, sarcasm!

SFGate - Oil steady as Fed's Bernanke eases concerns - SFGate
The price of oil was little changed near $93 a barrel on Wednesday as markets digested the Federal Reserve chairman's fairly sanguine view about the risks emanating from the central bank's super-easy monetary policy.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

You can see this from the way the VIX moves

When the $VIX starts to pop to multi-week/month highs, especially after being compressed for so long as we've seen, it's a sign that there isn't just fear, but usually panic.  It never ceases to amaze me how everyone can be so complacent for so long and then all of a sudden run around screaming that the sky is falling.

Corrections are healthy in the market, Bull or Bear.  They let those that missed the first move get in, and those that are already in get a better add to price. Of course, a correction can lead to a top, but it's way too aggressive to guess at that being the case after only a few days of weakness.

Remember, the public is usually wrong.

Investor fear on the rise - CNNMoney
Investor fear on the riseCNNMoney"It was the worst possible outcome, feared by market participants and European policy-makers alike," said Daiwa Capital Markets European economist Tobias Blattner. U.S. stocks spiraled downward in a late-day frenzied ...

Monday, February 25, 2013

This is a pretty good article

This is a pretty good article on understanding the stock market.  As you should know by reading any of my posts, I am mostly a technical trader.  However, as the years have passed me buy, I do now look at some fundamental factors, but I never decide based on that alone.

This isn't really an article on fundamental analysis, I was more trying to make the point that its good to look at other factors rather than just be pigeon holed into one way of seeing things.

The 12 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market - Seeking Alpha
The 12 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock MarketSeeking AlphaThe Stock Market Is a Market. Let's start with the obvious. The stock market is made up of people. People make mistakes. People have biases. Some people are greedy; some people ar ...

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Lots of reading on the sequester

I have no idea why, but I tried to get  a handle on how bad this whole sequester could hit the market.  In the end, I don't think it does a thing and is brushed aside as a non-event.

Here's the impact on the various States.

Sequester Impact On States Detailed In New White House Reports
WASHINGTON -- It's looking increasingly like the government is about to impose on itself $85 billion in across-the-board spending cuts. So as part of its strategy to pressure Republicans into accepting new revenues as part of ...

McCain on CNN

Candy Crowley Goes Off On McCain: If Sequester So Bad, Why Is ...
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) joined CNN anchor Candy Crowley on Sunday morning where he was asked about the ongoing Congressional fight over the mandatory cuts in the sequester slated to take effect next week.

Paul Ryan's view...

Paul Ryan Championed Sequester Since 2004, Now Calls His Own ...
Paul Ryan has been pushing for sequestration since 2004. He bragged about getting it in 2011. Now that it's here, Ryan thinks it's not good government.

The Miami Herald chimes in...

How bad will the sequester be, and who is to blame -
MarketWatchHow bad will the sequester be, and who is to blameMiamiHerald.comIt's Washington's latest case of economic hostage-taking: If Congress and President Barack Obama don't reach a deal by Friday, the budget gets whacked! Voters have heard thes ...

And he's not the only one who thinks this...

Obama exaggerating impact of sequester, GOP senator says - CBS News
Washington TimesObama exaggerating impact of sequester, GOP senator saysCBS NewsPresident Obama is "absolutely" crying wolf on how drastically Americans will be impacted if the deep, across-the-board cuts known as the "sequester" go into effect at th ...

What people are tweeting about it...

Bob Woodward: Obama wrong about sequester origins -- automatic spending cuts were initiated by the White House.
Saturday, February 23, 2013 8:51:37 PM

Even the Whitehouse themselves...

What you need to know about the sequester: This is about people living with mental illness:
Sunday, February 24, 2013 10:19:04 AM

Automatic cuts - known as the sequester - would cut lending to small businesses by $540M:
Saturday, February 23, 2013 5:27:07 PM

And finally, both sides are pointing their respective fingers on where the fault lies.

Both Sides Point Fingers on Sequester - Washington Wire - WSJ
The Obama administration and lawmakers warned of the consequences if automatic spending cuts kick in Friday and blamed each other for the impasse.

Market Video For The Week Of February 25th, 2013

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Oil looks like just a mild bounce before more downside

Oil looks lower, but it should form a Bear flag of sorts here before resuming the downside momentum.

After the kind of move it had, a reversal out of thin air, baring some giant news is unlikely.

Oil snaps 2 days of steep losses, gains modest - SFGate
See Site Index. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for April delivery was up 30 cents to $93.14 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Video tomorrow, but for now...

I do not think the highs are in

I still think we test up again, and then we measure the divergences, if they appear, which I believe there is a very good chance of.


Gartman makes his stand

I would consider Dennis Gartman a super guru, but not that kind of super guru (the scam artists I often refer to).  Gartman is well respected by many, and loathed by some too.  Why? because he makes statements that most don't understand.  this one wasn't one of those times.  He was Bearish and nailed this. 

Whether he caught the top or not isn't the point.  He made a stand, and on the short term, was correct. Does he stay that way?  We'll know soon.

In the meantime, good job sir.

Business Insider - MARKET GURU YELLS 'SELL - ' Should You - Business Insider
A popular stock market guru, Dennis Gartman, made a black and white call earlier this week, telling subscribers to his market newsletter that he was selling his stocks and rushing to the sidelines.

Those were the days....

It's a shame that they will never go back to them, as the market strives to become more and more efficient.  It's why I hate weekly options.  Not as trading instruments per se, but because it gives the market makers a better chance to screw the retail trader.  After all, that's our job, isn't it?

SEC Rethinks the Penny Tick in Stock Trading
Remember when stock market regulators ditched fractions and started rounding to the nearest penny? The SEC is reconsidering.

Sequestration and the market

Will Sequestration have an affect on the market?  I think it will be yet another non event, but of course, with all the hype, it can still give the market jitters.

Now that its only 1 week away, the campaigning is going into overdrive and the blame game continues...

Top Links: One week until sequestration and the Republican ...
Republicans' attempt to blame President Obama for the sequester cuts doesn't appear to be working. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite). Top story: This time next Friday, Republicans may be ruing their sequestration strategy

Housing may be a different story, and this delves a bit deeper into how that market will be directly be influenced.
Why Sequestration Will Hit Housing on Several Fronts At least one government official warns that the massive government budget cuts would be, "deeply destructive" to all aspects of the housing market.

Whatever the final result, it provides us with opportunity, especially coupled with the overbought market.

Next week is set to be an interesting one.


Will the market continue to climb the wall of worry?

Things are getting worse, but is Europe even a concern anymore?

Economist - New European economic forecasts - The ever-receding recovery - The Economist - Economics
Our economics correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts. New European economic forecasts. The EC now expects the Portuguese economy to contract by 1.9% compared with its November forecast of a 1% fall.

There are probably more than 5

The five biggest lies on Wall Street right now:
Thursday, February 21, 2013 4:22:51 PM

The $VIX

I get  a ton of questions on the $VIX.  Here's a pretty good article on using VIX futures in order to hedge stock market risk.

Do VIX futures hedge stock market risk? - CBS News
CNBC.comDo VIX futures hedge stock market risk?CBS NewsThe reason for the growth of volatility-based ETPs is the perception that they offer a hedge against stock market losses. It's important to understand that the VIX is a forward (not historical) m ...

May have?

When you start seeing "may have" you know they area real committed to their opinion!

A Stock Market Correction May Have Begun - U.S. News & World Report (blog)
U.S. News & World Report (blog)A Stock Market Correction May Have BegunU.S. News & World Report (blog)As usual with the Fed, that's not really news, but some investors felt they detected a shift in emphasis that could mean an earlier end than exp ...

Faber says Stock Market has topped

Read what Marc Faber has to say about the market peaking for this move

MARC FABER: Stocks Have Peaked Out - Business Insider
The stock market has "peaked out" and bonds may be on their way to a rebound, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said Thursday on CNBC. "I think we have made an intermediate top, and it could be ...