Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Recap of early action

Here's a quick recap and look ahead:

Early blood was bought and we've had a pretty nice push up from the lows

Breadth was not terrible but right on the brink of being there, before bouncing with the market. It's still negative despite the market being green, and that's not good.

Volatility was juiced early, with big batches of movement, but it's calmed down quite a bit.

108.84 basis the SPY was my level to watch for several weeks now, we opened below it, but remounted it, traded back below it, and then remounted it again. It's important that it holds on a closing basis

Volume is very brisk, but downside volume is leading. Also not a good sign.

I can't tell if this is just a fakeout, or if the bulls are just taking their sweet time, doing more work before putting in a short term low.

I'd love to tell you I had a clear picture here, but I just don't. The breadth readings (volume and issues) are keeping me hesitant and leaning on the downside, but not enough to take the plunge short, after that spikey bottom this morning.

The push into lunchtime is a bullish sign, I just wish internals gave a clearer picture. There won't be any "I told you so" here, that's for sure. I'll leave that for the super gurus that never tell you anything but both sides of the story and then claim "they knew it!" "We rock!" "we are doing very well!" it's all nonsense.

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