The Market Climbs The Wall Of Worry

there's a tried and true saying about he stock market. It goes like this: "The market climbs a wall of worry"

Is there worry in the market? Let's see:

End of QE2? Check!

Another country or three in Europe talking about going under? Check!

Unemployment actually NOT getting better as previously stated? Check!

Housing still in the toilet? Check!

That all spells worry to me, and the market reacted appropriately, with a 5 day in a row pop who's size hasn't been seen in years.

I was certainly wrong a few times this week. While I didn't think we would fall out of bed, I was looking for a bit lower to be tested. I was looking for a bounce Monday for a number of reasons, the most prevailing being that there was so much negative sentiment out there. After we bounced a bit and quickly got overbought, I was looking for a retest back down and it never came. If you check the videos you can see that I definitely had a short side opinion, and thanks to respecting the triggers it only wound up costing a half unit loss, but more aggravating to me was no watch list trades to the upside as we got overbought pretty quickly and that kept me out of chasing the upside. Oh, that was only after 40 S&P points ago!

Do I think the rally is over? I don't know. I still believe that we form a range over the next few months rather than an all out screaming rally or decline. A pullback here is due, and depending on the breadth and volume of that pullback, it will go a long way in my analysis of the next move.

Michael "tiny" Saul

P.S. I also have a secret indicator. Hint: It's based on "never admit they are wrong" super gurus touting the death of the market. They are wrong a good 90% of the time, and when they get lucky it's all you hear. You will never hear them say "hey I got it wrong, sorry". They just keep on saying how they nailed it, and they delete blog posts and status updates so you can't see how wrong they truly are. When they start leaning one way, I know a reversal is due. They will usually catch the end of the move, not the start.