Tuesday, March 13, 2012

New highs for 2012, but are the signals all clear for higher prices from here?

Part of the big news from Tuesday was the $VIX.X hitting a  new 5 year low on the session. Complacency is rampant, but that in no way suggests we've gone up as far as we are going to.  I remain bullish here, but there are definitely some things to take note of:
 
The Russell 2000 continues to lag overall.  While it outperformed last week and did great on Tuesday, it's still below the highs of the year as well as the 2011 highs. This can change quickly, but for now, it sticks out to me like a sore thumb.
 
Breadth is not confirming.  Stocks are the dog, the index is the tail.  The fact that breadth did not expand with Tuesday's move is something to be taken note of.
 
The $VIX.X is at a 5 year (or so) low.  As mentioned earlier, it's not enough to call a high (nothing on the list is) but it isn't something to get excited about if you are bullish either. 

My levels to watch have been (are you coming to Sunday Night Strategy Sessions?) all time highs on the Dow, S&P 500 (if we hold 1381.50) and Russell 2000, as well as 2793.45 on the NASDAQ 100. I still don't believe we get there in one move, but obviously, what I think and what happens can often times be diverging!

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