Thursday, March 31, 2011
Internals watch into lunch
Internals are not storng here. The TRIN is over 1.5, breadth is +218 (which better than some earlier readings) and the $VIX is up.
The market broke down out of the AM consolidation, but no follow through, and we apepar to be creeping back into the consolidaiton now.
Let's see what happens coming out of lunch.
Michael tiny saul
tinymjs at gail dot com
The market broke down out of the AM consolidation, but no follow through, and we apepar to be creeping back into the consolidaiton now.
Let's see what happens coming out of lunch.
Michael tiny saul
tinymjs at gail dot com
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Internal watch
$VIX down nicely, $TRIN nice and low and the A-D line is +1470.
Bulls are in charge
Michael "tiny" Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Bulls are in charge
Michael "tiny" Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
78.6% Fib breached
The 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the last swing down on the SPY has been breached. If we hold the break, a full retracement to the last highs is expected.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
1st Quarter Window Dressing
One of the more consistent tendencies for the stock market as of late has been end of quarter Window Dressing. This is when fund managers “dress up” their portfolios by grabbing some winners and letting go of losers into the end of the last month of the quarter in order to boost the appearance that the fund is positioned well. Performance for the funds may also catch a rise, as long as the stronger performing stocks maintain their strength into the end of the manager’s dress up time zone. While it may seem like this practice is just a form of manipulation (and it’s hard to argue that it isn’t), it is an accepted standard on the street and we should use it to our advantage.
Despite what some might lead you to believe, Window Dressing is the farthest thing from a “lock”. That shouldn’t surprise you, as the stock market doesn’t have sure things. The strategy is not foolproof and can often back-fire, especially if you get greedy or your timing is off. I like to use the tendency to help put baskets of stocks together to watch for late quarter pushes. I usually follow the stock charts for the triggers, but a time of the month strategy may also be used.
For this quarter, I ran a best performing stock scan using a filter of at least $10 and volume over 300k average. Here is the small list of stocks that came in the top percentile of the scan:
SRZ
SGI
ALJ
GMCR
BSFT
IPGP
PANL
MERC
WTW
SD
AH
WWWW
FTO
MTW
JAZZ
My personal favorite parabolic monster (just because of the fast rise) TZOO
Some of these stocks have patterns that should be watched for the next few days, while others don’t have quantifiable patterns or in what I call the “nosebleed” area, and I would likely steer clear from those stocks. Of course, some of the stocks I put in the nosebleed category will still move higher, but they will do so without me.
A common question I received many times when teaching the Window Dressing techniques was “what about shorting the stocks after the start of the new quarter”? The question is a good one. If these stocks are just being propped up for Window Dressing, then shouldn’t they fall hard at the start of the new quarter? Well, not exactly. I’m not a big fan of shorting stocks that are in a strong uptrend, and usually, these stocks are in just that. There may be an opportunity in some stocks that are fading before the end of the quarter. These stocks may offer trades from the short side, but as always, wait for a pattern to setup.
As a final note, Window Dressing can work in other markets besides stocks. Watch crude oil, gold, silver and currencies for Window Dressing to kick in as well.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Trade well,
Michael “tiny” Saul
Tinymjs at gmail dot com
Despite what some might lead you to believe, Window Dressing is the farthest thing from a “lock”. That shouldn’t surprise you, as the stock market doesn’t have sure things. The strategy is not foolproof and can often back-fire, especially if you get greedy or your timing is off. I like to use the tendency to help put baskets of stocks together to watch for late quarter pushes. I usually follow the stock charts for the triggers, but a time of the month strategy may also be used.
For this quarter, I ran a best performing stock scan using a filter of at least $10 and volume over 300k average. Here is the small list of stocks that came in the top percentile of the scan:
SRZ
SGI
ALJ
GMCR
BSFT
IPGP
PANL
MERC
WTW
SD
AH
WWWW
FTO
MTW
JAZZ
My personal favorite parabolic monster (just because of the fast rise) TZOO
Some of these stocks have patterns that should be watched for the next few days, while others don’t have quantifiable patterns or in what I call the “nosebleed” area, and I would likely steer clear from those stocks. Of course, some of the stocks I put in the nosebleed category will still move higher, but they will do so without me.
A common question I received many times when teaching the Window Dressing techniques was “what about shorting the stocks after the start of the new quarter”? The question is a good one. If these stocks are just being propped up for Window Dressing, then shouldn’t they fall hard at the start of the new quarter? Well, not exactly. I’m not a big fan of shorting stocks that are in a strong uptrend, and usually, these stocks are in just that. There may be an opportunity in some stocks that are fading before the end of the quarter. These stocks may offer trades from the short side, but as always, wait for a pattern to setup.
As a final note, Window Dressing can work in other markets besides stocks. Watch crude oil, gold, silver and currencies for Window Dressing to kick in as well.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Trade well,
Michael “tiny” Saul
Tinymjs at gmail dot com
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
I've read this book 20 times
I can't stop reading this book, and it has a permanent spot in my rotation. It's not a trading tactic or strategy book, but the money management techniques and trader psychology are invaluable. The stories that Buzzy tells as a stock, stock options, and futures trader are entertaining and educational, to say the least.
Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader
Michael "tiny" Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader
Michael "tiny" Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
NON MARKET RELATED: I'll try the diet, but can I drive the 12 mles instead of hike?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704608504576208842053273476.html
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader
I found the Disciplined trader a little tough to get through the first time I read it, but some light bulbs went off after I read Trading in the Zone and gave The Disciplined Trader another go through.
Everyone is so caught up in finding the Holy Grail indicator, scanner, or buying some over-hyped, over priced list from some super scam artist on the promise that it will change your trading forever. I know because I am just like you. It's not lookng for shortcuts or general laziness, it's continuously looking for something "better".
What I've learned in 15+ years of trading is that the greener grass does exist, and it comes in the form of changing your mindset when you are taking trades. Nurturing good habits while stomping out the bad habits takes time, but it is well worth it.
Indicators, scanners and software can all have their place in your trading. It's important to keep in mind that they are just tools. Your "market mind" is the foundation for your success.
I highly recommend Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader. I believe they will assist you in making the change you desire in the way you approach your trading.
You can get them both at Amazon:
Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Everyone is so caught up in finding the Holy Grail indicator, scanner, or buying some over-hyped, over priced list from some super scam artist on the promise that it will change your trading forever. I know because I am just like you. It's not lookng for shortcuts or general laziness, it's continuously looking for something "better".
What I've learned in 15+ years of trading is that the greener grass does exist, and it comes in the form of changing your mindset when you are taking trades. Nurturing good habits while stomping out the bad habits takes time, but it is well worth it.
Indicators, scanners and software can all have their place in your trading. It's important to keep in mind that they are just tools. Your "market mind" is the foundation for your success.
I highly recommend Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader. I believe they will assist you in making the change you desire in the way you approach your trading.
You can get them both at Amazon:
Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
My all time favorite book on Technical Analysis
A true classic, and I still reference it almost every week. Considered by many to be "the" reference book for charting and technical analysis.
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee
Let me know what you think.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee
Let me know what you think.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Monday, March 21, 2011
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
S&P video for Thursday, March 17th, 2011
Can be found here
Also, here are some posts on the TRIN closing over 2:
More on the TRIN over 2
Even more on the TRIN over 2
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Also, here are some posts on the TRIN closing over 2:
More on the TRIN over 2
Even more on the TRIN over 2
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Sunday, March 13, 2011
I love my Kindle!!!!
My Kindle has already paid for itself a few times over. For convenience alone, it gets 5 out of 5 stars.
I get Barrons auto delivered so I never forget to pick it up. I'm going to start with IBD as well. I like the 2 week free trials on on the magazines and newspapers so I get a chance to test drive before I buy em.
I already have purchased 3 books that have helped my business. If I ordered and got them in paper pack, they would be on my "too be read" pile. Instead, I can carry them all in one convenient package. waiting at the Dr.'s office (which I've been doing too much lately), in my super private office (at least that's what men call the toilet!) or just in bed when I can't sleep. No light required, as the case has a built in one that doesn't bother my wife.
It's amazing to me that they give you free 3G and the web browser is good for being in beta mode. Just proves what a rip off the cell phone companies are putting on us charging for 3G. Ha! Shame on me (yet I still have a cellphone!).
I love my Kindle, and if you were ever thinking of buying one they are currently very affordable.
Feel free to contact me if you have any questions about the Kindle or anything else.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
P.S. I grabbed my wife one for her romance novels which she is getting dirt cheap. Also some free books for the kids.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
S&P video for Tuesday, March 8th, 2011
Can be found here: http://chart.ly/dk8m72g
Michael tiny saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Michael tiny saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Sunday, March 6, 2011
S&P video for March 7th, 2011
Can be found here: http://chart.ly/jsbgkut
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me on Twitter and Stocktwits- see the side of the blog!
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me on Twitter and Stocktwits- see the side of the blog!
An article on Cotton by Paul Schatz
Paul is a top notch analyst, money manager and friend. All opinions expressed in his articles are his, and do not reflect any recommendations to buy or sell securities, options, currencies, futures or any other financial instrument not specifically mentioned.
Huge Bubble In The Making
A few weeks ago, I went into detail on how depressed the Treasury bond market was and how it was almost impossible to find any bulls in So Bad They Are Actually Good . That led me to the contrarian conclusion that treasuries were likely close to at least a short-term, if not longer-term, bottom.
This week, I am going to go to the opposite end of the spectrum and talk about bubbles. In my Shockers 2011 issue, I spoke about cotton, sugar and coffee being in speculative bubbles that would end very poorly. Let's go into the charts for a peak in cotton. I'll come back to sugar and coffee next week.
The key thing to remember about bubbles is that they always last longer than anyone believes. Declines that appear to be the bubble bursting tend to end and another, even more parabolic, move begins until finally the whole thing comes crashing down. Positioning to profit on the collapse is very difficult since, as we've all learned and heard from John Maynard Keynes, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Cotton is a VERY volatile commodity that's known for dramatic, often straight up rises and gravity defying declines. The chart below doesn't even begin to describe the craziness until you pay close attention to the scaling on the right. 30 to 90 and back and back. Try living through that!
Now, multiple moves from 30 to 90 can certainly be classified as bubblesque. But what happened next is unbelievable! From the crash low in 2008 at the far left of the weekly chart, check out where cotton is today. 200!!!
Zeroing in a little more, you can see a daily chart below.
I vividly recall thinking that cotton was heading for a grand collapse from the 150 level in November. All the signs were there!
But someone forgot to tell the commodity!
So once again, cotton has all the signs of a bubble bursting. And in hindsight, it will be clear as day. But how many times can the bears afford to be wrong and totally blown out of the water? That's exactly why bubbles are so easy to spot but so hard to profit from on the way down. They never make it easy!
I stand by my shocker that the bull market in cotton will end very poorly this year, whether the collapse is starting right here and now or later during the first half of 2011.
FYI, I will be on CNBC’s The Call on March 9 at 11:05am
Feel free to email me with any questions or comments at Paul@investfortomorrow.com.
Until next time…
Paul Schatz
Heritage Capital LLC
http://www.InvestForTomorrow.com
http://RetirementPlanningConnecticut.com/
Follow Paul on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Paul_Schatz
Facebook: www.facebook.com/heritagecapital
Huge Bubble In The Making
A few weeks ago, I went into detail on how depressed the Treasury bond market was and how it was almost impossible to find any bulls in So Bad They Are Actually Good . That led me to the contrarian conclusion that treasuries were likely close to at least a short-term, if not longer-term, bottom.
This week, I am going to go to the opposite end of the spectrum and talk about bubbles. In my Shockers 2011 issue, I spoke about cotton, sugar and coffee being in speculative bubbles that would end very poorly. Let's go into the charts for a peak in cotton. I'll come back to sugar and coffee next week.
The key thing to remember about bubbles is that they always last longer than anyone believes. Declines that appear to be the bubble bursting tend to end and another, even more parabolic, move begins until finally the whole thing comes crashing down. Positioning to profit on the collapse is very difficult since, as we've all learned and heard from John Maynard Keynes, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Cotton is a VERY volatile commodity that's known for dramatic, often straight up rises and gravity defying declines. The chart below doesn't even begin to describe the craziness until you pay close attention to the scaling on the right. 30 to 90 and back and back. Try living through that!
Now, multiple moves from 30 to 90 can certainly be classified as bubblesque. But what happened next is unbelievable! From the crash low in 2008 at the far left of the weekly chart, check out where cotton is today. 200!!!
Zeroing in a little more, you can see a daily chart below.
I vividly recall thinking that cotton was heading for a grand collapse from the 150 level in November. All the signs were there!
But someone forgot to tell the commodity!
So once again, cotton has all the signs of a bubble bursting. And in hindsight, it will be clear as day. But how many times can the bears afford to be wrong and totally blown out of the water? That's exactly why bubbles are so easy to spot but so hard to profit from on the way down. They never make it easy!
I stand by my shocker that the bull market in cotton will end very poorly this year, whether the collapse is starting right here and now or later during the first half of 2011.
FYI, I will be on CNBC’s The Call on March 9 at 11:05am
Feel free to email me with any questions or comments at Paul@investfortomorrow.com.
Until next time…
Paul Schatz
Heritage Capital LLC
http://www.InvestForTomorrow.com
http://RetirementPlanningConnecticut.com/
Follow Paul on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Paul_Schatz
Facebook: www.facebook.com/heritagecapital
Friday, March 4, 2011
Small gap
Small gap, so no straight fade, but I'm going to watch this push lower for possible support and a long side entry
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Folow me!
www.twitter.com/tinyreal
www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Folow me!
www.twitter.com/tinyreal
www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Bear flag
First target would be $30
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me:
www.twitter.com/tinyreal
www.stocktwits.com/tiny
S&P Video for Friday, March 4th, 2011
Can be found here
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/tinyreal
Follow me on Stocktwits: www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/tinyreal
Follow me on Stocktwits: www.stocktwits.com/tiny
78.% FIb
78.6% Fib of the swing from Tuesday's highs to yesterday's lows is being tested here. If it holds on, fade could be setting up
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Nice size gap up
Index futures are up nicely, and I will be watching for a fade. As is usually the case, I will wait at least until the first 5 minutes are in before looking for an entry.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me here: www.twitter.com/tinyreal and www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me here: www.twitter.com/tinyreal and www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
S&P video for Thursday, March 3rd
Can be found here
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me here: www.twitter.com/tinyreal and here: www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me here: www.twitter.com/tinyreal and here: www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
And even MORE on the TRIN over 2 close
I want to answer some questions I received on the TRIN over 2 post and my video.
Just to make sure I'm clear, the signal is no where near 100%, but from my experience it has an edge. Unless you buy it on the day it signals into the close, you have to maneuver yourself into the market, and may wind up not getting in at all if the market gaps up, etc.
When I do my nightly homework, it puts a check on the buy side, but it's far from the only thing I base my battle plan on.
On that subject, I have started work on the new website, and I am very excited about rolling it out. I will be publishing a daily newsletter (released each AM before 9), I will be offering one on one and group mentoring, posting training videos, and I will be releasing a software product in the near future. I'll keep you all posted, but the starter site will be up very shortly, and I will be offering beta testing of the daily newsletter so I can receive the proper feedback to make it the best out there.
Thank you for all the great e-mails, I welcome them all!
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/tinyreal
Follow me on Stocktwits and www.stocktwits.com/tiny
More on the TRIN over 2
In my video, I touched on the TRIN closing above 2. When this occurs, it is a sign that the market is ultra-short term oversold, and I watch for a bounce on the open, or after an early push down the next day.
How much of a bounce? How long will the bounce last? Based on my experience, I don't look for much of a bounce before I trail stops. I trail stops rather than taking an exit because a small bounce may indeed lead to a bigger bounce, and I want to try and milk as much as possible out of the trade. However, I don't want to let profits disappear by not protecting gains as quickly as possible.
Don't take my “ultra short term Bullish” opinion as anything more than what it says. Ultra-short term means just that, and could only be an hour or two, or even less.
So why even bother? Because there is an edge, in my opinion. Go look for yourself. Back test (even manually) when the TRIN closes over 2 and how the SPY (or ES Futures) acts at some point the next day. Remember, I'm not talking about closing green, or rallying huge. I'm just looking for a bounce either at the open, or after an initial push down.
A personal problem I have with the signal, is technically, the trade should be placed at the close, this way a gap up can be taken advantage of. However, this leaves exposure on overnight, and with the world events going on now, I'm not comfortable with too much overnight risk. A good way to limit risk that would be to take small size with a wider risk, or to use option strategies that define your risk to the penny.
Trade well,
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Follow me at www.twitter.com/tinyreal and www.stocktwits.com/tiny
S&P video for Wednesday, March 2nd
Nice fade
Nice gap into the 78.6% Fib level mentioned in my video, and a nice confirmation entry. Now testing yesterday's lows.
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
www.twitter.com/tinyreal www.stocktwits.com/tiny
Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
www.twitter.com/tinyreal www.stocktwits.com/tiny
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