Monday, August 6, 2012
Wow is this brutal!
6 point range on the session, makes last Monday;s 11 pointer seem like a large range day. We can't even put in a 10 point range, which is what I tend to look for at the least on a narrow range session.
With still 2 hours to go I guess we could break this logjam here and extend the range a bit, but I wouldn't count on it, and as of now, it's just completely brutal.
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With still 2 hours to go I guess we could break this logjam here and extend the range a bit, but I wouldn't count on it, and as of now, it's just completely brutal.
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Paul Schatz on Fox Business at 1PM
Paul Schatz will be on Fox Business at 1PM Eastern
Here's the release from Paul:
Here's the release from Paul:
| FOX Business Monday at 1pm est |
| Posted August 5, 2012 |
| I am going to be on FOX Business' Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below. After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday's data were "better than expected", but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth. And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal "seasonal adjustments" accounted for a significant number of jobs created. What continues to amaze me is how many "experts" think this recovery is anything other than normal following a financial crisis. As I have said for three years, the economy we are living through right now is what typically happens after a systemic meltdown. It's lukewarm, tepid and any other adjective you want to throw in. If history continues to guide us, the real progress on the jobs front will happen on the other side of the next recession, which I happe n to believe will be mild given the almost $3T in cash on corporate balance sheets and how lean corporate America has become. The markets reacted very favorably to the news on Friday, but Europe and our futures were already in rally mode before the employment report was released. With the disappointing lack of news from our Fed and the ECB and the positive jobs report, the Dow ended last week almost exactly where it began the week. As I mentioned in the last few Street$marts, there are a few key indicators to watch for clues to the next big market move. On the positive side, high yield bonds are making new highs and the semiconductors are trying to step up and lead. But the Dow Jones Transportation index, S&P Mid Cap 400 and Russell 2000 Small Cap need to get into gear for this rally to last much longer. We also need to see less defensive sectors outperform the market. For a while now, it's been consumer staples, utilitie s, REITs and biotech, not your typical healthy bull market leadership. Could the Dow reach up to visit its 2012 peak? Sure. But unless something changes dramatically, I think it will be your typical summer selling opportunity in a presidential election year more than anything else. As always, please feel free to contact me directly at or by hitting reply with any questions or comments. Paul |
Watching these highs
No new highs on the last uptick, but its far from Bearish. Breadth pretty decent at +1400s, but not what it was Friday
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10 point range
10 point live range on the session comes in at 1399.75 (I would think 1400 would be kissed at that point) or down at 85.50
On expected choppy days, I like to watch for the first 10 points to be established to get a feel for the early on structure. Obviously, there's no guarantee it happens, or that these levels are the boundaries of that range. we could uptick and then turn around and have to adjust the numbers
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On expected choppy days, I like to watch for the first 10 points to be established to get a feel for the early on structure. Obviously, there's no guarantee it happens, or that these levels are the boundaries of that range. we could uptick and then turn around and have to adjust the numbers
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