Textbook, over emotional gap up that led to a gorgeous fade after the letdown as Bernanke disappoints, at least initially. Then, a gap fill with a divergence that leads to a nice push, pause and follow through. this is the moves they put in books and trading courses, which reminds me.....
Its an excuse, but screw it, if it were any other day but the day before Labor Day, It would have been a nice morning.
Don't complain, as long as you stayed whole during it. There is a LOT of year left in the tank.
tiny
Friday, August 31, 2012
Off we go to Jackson Hole
I woke up early today to have some blood work done, and I figured that was a good enough reason not to do a video last night, in case there were any overnight events that moved us ahead of the 10AM speech by Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole symposium.
I had been looking for buying ahead of the meeting, but expected it yesterday, which never materialized. After the way we sold off the last 30 minutes I was watching for a nice gap down to the 1390s (basis the S&P Futures) for a buying op, but instead we gaped up pretty nicely today as there was buying in the Euro as well as the index futures in the early morning. I tried a short, but scratched it, and now I'm now waiting for 10AM to see how the market reacts to whatever comes out of Bernanke's mouth.
My plan for the day is to stay small, because the one thing I hate most is digging a hole on a day that there will likely not be an opportunity to get out of. Remember, risk first.
There will likely be some volatility off the speech, but it probably won't last long, and we should deaden up ahead of the long weekend, so it can get even more choppy and light than what we have been seeing as of late.If it does that I'll be packing up for the long weekend. If I stick around, I'll throw commentary up on twitter, so follow me there @tinyreal
Sign up for FREE to http://stockmarkettrendsx.com and get on my list to receive the Market Autopsy video this wekend.
Have a great Labor day!
tiny
I had been looking for buying ahead of the meeting, but expected it yesterday, which never materialized. After the way we sold off the last 30 minutes I was watching for a nice gap down to the 1390s (basis the S&P Futures) for a buying op, but instead we gaped up pretty nicely today as there was buying in the Euro as well as the index futures in the early morning. I tried a short, but scratched it, and now I'm now waiting for 10AM to see how the market reacts to whatever comes out of Bernanke's mouth.
My plan for the day is to stay small, because the one thing I hate most is digging a hole on a day that there will likely not be an opportunity to get out of. Remember, risk first.
There will likely be some volatility off the speech, but it probably won't last long, and we should deaden up ahead of the long weekend, so it can get even more choppy and light than what we have been seeing as of late.If it does that I'll be packing up for the long weekend. If I stick around, I'll throw commentary up on twitter, so follow me there @tinyreal
Sign up for FREE to http://stockmarkettrendsx.com and get on my list to receive the Market Autopsy video this wekend.
Have a great Labor day!
tiny
Thursday, August 30, 2012
A possible scenario
This is ABSOLUTELY influenced by my opinion that we bounce today at some point.
Right now, we are correcting the push lower from this morning. A scenario could be a stall out a little bit higher (maybe just under/over 1400) and then a retest drift of/towards the lows. From there, we could see profit taking and a push higher in the afternoon. A change in the breadth (which is currently stinky) and a good pattern to back it up would go along way in building my confidence.
Again, it's an opinion influenced sceanrio, but one that can be considered if you share the same view as mine.
tiny
Right now, we are correcting the push lower from this morning. A scenario could be a stall out a little bit higher (maybe just under/over 1400) and then a retest drift of/towards the lows. From there, we could see profit taking and a push higher in the afternoon. A change in the breadth (which is currently stinky) and a good pattern to back it up would go along way in building my confidence.
Again, it's an opinion influenced sceanrio, but one that can be considered if you share the same view as mine.
tiny
Jackson Hole
I've been saying over the past few days that I expect the market to bounce into Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, which is scheduled for 10AM Friday. Starting a few weeks back, I've had a good opinion that QE3 would not be announced and that it could be a letdown. I would love to tout myself as an expert in the economy, but the opinion was crafted based on input from some the writers that I read every week, and who's opinion I value. of course, the end result remains to be seen, but not for too much longer.
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
It's a holiday week and there is finally a little excitement (which is what usually happens on the downside) as the market has decided to gap down and continue lower, although not at any neck breaking pace (yet). But the scope of how far and deep is the question.
At this point, I don't think we get an all out sell-off, but it's certainly possible. What I think is MORE probable is that the speech is taken as a disappointment, but it may not be on all levels. While Big Ben may not put QE3 to work, he could extend Operation Twist, as well as speak in a manner that breeds confidence that he is ready and willing to ease if need be.
There are more and more people coming onto the no QE3 side, which may dampen the disappointment in the end, and have us limp into the long weekend instead.
In the end, you will get a lot of super gurus that will say "as called" or some other nonsense, when all they called is 6 different opinions, so they couldn't be wrong if they wanted to (which they 90% are). See, their broken clocks are only right twice a week, not twice a day.
I still think we try to bounce today at some point, but I'm not confident enough to guess at where, or firm enough in the opinion to hold overnight.
tiny
Acceptable gap down to start the session
Decent size gap down to start the sesison
I'll be watching for a buying op off the opening push here to/below the overnight lows.
If we don;t get a bounce I'll likely head to the sidelines but be watching for a boucne later on.
My opinion is that they get some kind of bounce ahead of Bernanke speech tomorrow. Of course, if that is the genral consensus then of course we have to be aware of the overweight to one side
As I finish this we are retesting 1400, let's see if it can hold on the short term.
tiny
I'll be watching for a buying op off the opening push here to/below the overnight lows.
If we don;t get a bounce I'll likely head to the sidelines but be watching for a boucne later on.
My opinion is that they get some kind of bounce ahead of Bernanke speech tomorrow. Of course, if that is the genral consensus then of course we have to be aware of the overweight to one side
As I finish this we are retesting 1400, let's see if it can hold on the short term.
tiny
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
No video for today and the market
Since Monday was such a lame trading day, I decided not to do a video update.I'll likely do at least one this week, but it should be a low volume low volatility week ahead of Friday's Bernanke speech, although we do have nearly 9 points of range, basis the S&P Futures already in for the first hour today, which is large compared to recent activity
I still think we test up to the highs at a minimum and we did get some responsive buying this AM, which is Bullish, but yesterdays highs need to be challenged to keep the Bull happy.
Despite how boring the market may be, I still put out a daily update, and you can get it for FREE by signing up at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com
.
tiny
I still think we test up to the highs at a minimum and we did get some responsive buying this AM, which is Bullish, but yesterdays highs need to be challenged to keep the Bull happy.
Despite how boring the market may be, I still put out a daily update, and you can get it for FREE by signing up at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com
.
tiny
Monday, August 27, 2012
Is AAPL really a Super Guru?
Is $AAPL really a super guru in disguise? They have almsot as many lawsuits as the bad breathed scam artists do!
tiny
tiny
Friday, August 24, 2012
The desperate super gurus
There is absolutely NOTHING I love more than when a super guru exhibits his desperation to keep his harem of random nannies and his extravagant sushi meals well funded by lying about their performance and touting a general direction opinion as an unbelievable play. If you look at the public track record, they STINK! Everything they hype up and give is just a front running ploy and winds up cracking anyone that follows them.
One out of dozens that lose actually goes in the direction that they say and they think they are killing it? Pu lease!
DO NOT GIVE THESE CRIMINALS A DOLLAR OF YOUR MONEY. No matter how much they beg and plead for you to read their super terrific (which is really just robbery) deals on their super-hyped garbage classes, seminars and rooms, don't fall for it.
You will NEVER succeed long term following blindly. This is why they never have long term members, they all get blown out eventually. Can you afford to be one of those blowouts at their expense? The only reason that the super gurus even survive at all is because the come up with new scams
REFUSE TO BE A VICTIM!
The wheels have already started turning, and the heats going to get much worse on these filthbags. They will soon be screaching how they "help people!", but really all they do is held them out of their money. Don't be one of those that are financing their lifestyle. Many of you have already done the right thing, which is getting these thieves the attention they deserve. For those who are on the fence, contact the SEC, FNRA, NFA, CFTC, your State Attorney General
If you have any questions, or need assistance, contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com and I will do my best to help. I've already helped some people get back some fo the money that was scammed from them, and I'll do my best to help you too.
tiny
One out of dozens that lose actually goes in the direction that they say and they think they are killing it? Pu lease!
DO NOT GIVE THESE CRIMINALS A DOLLAR OF YOUR MONEY. No matter how much they beg and plead for you to read their super terrific (which is really just robbery) deals on their super-hyped garbage classes, seminars and rooms, don't fall for it.
You will NEVER succeed long term following blindly. This is why they never have long term members, they all get blown out eventually. Can you afford to be one of those blowouts at their expense? The only reason that the super gurus even survive at all is because the come up with new scams
REFUSE TO BE A VICTIM!
The wheels have already started turning, and the heats going to get much worse on these filthbags. They will soon be screaching how they "help people!", but really all they do is held them out of their money. Don't be one of those that are financing their lifestyle. Many of you have already done the right thing, which is getting these thieves the attention they deserve. For those who are on the fence, contact the SEC, FNRA, NFA, CFTC, your State Attorney General
If you have any questions, or need assistance, contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com and I will do my best to help. I've already helped some people get back some fo the money that was scammed from them, and I'll do my best to help you too.
tiny
Gap fade to end the week
The gap wasn't that big to start the session, so I want to wait to see if it will push down into the overnight lows
May have missed the opportunity picking it up at 1396.50 (basis the futures) which was a key level from a few weeks back (the 13th to be exact)
tiny
May have missed the opportunity picking it up at 1396.50 (basis the futures) which was a key level from a few weeks back (the 13th to be exact)
tiny
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Can't get the video to record
I can't get the video to record so heres what I'm looking at for Friday.
We finished off near the lows of the session, after a gap down could not fade. We are in the mdist of a pullback form highs, but are approaching support. Watch the 20 EMA on the daily SPY chart, and then 139.25, which fills a lap from early in the month.
It's too early for me to call a top, but others are more aggressive with that call. I think we will need to get the Jackson Hole conference out of the way, along with the end of Summer to get a clearer picture. As of now, we are in a pullback from highs, and that;s Bullish. The trend has NOT changed
For Friday, I'll be watching any early upside for a shorting opportunity (like Thursday that never happened) for a test back down to the lows from Thursday, but a further push or a gap down will be watched for a buying opportunity, as long as there is support and a pattern to lean against.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to sign up to the list at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com to get the Market Autopsy video delivered to your inbox this weekend.
tiny
We finished off near the lows of the session, after a gap down could not fade. We are in the mdist of a pullback form highs, but are approaching support. Watch the 20 EMA on the daily SPY chart, and then 139.25, which fills a lap from early in the month.
It's too early for me to call a top, but others are more aggressive with that call. I think we will need to get the Jackson Hole conference out of the way, along with the end of Summer to get a clearer picture. As of now, we are in a pullback from highs, and that;s Bullish. The trend has NOT changed
For Friday, I'll be watching any early upside for a shorting opportunity (like Thursday that never happened) for a test back down to the lows from Thursday, but a further push or a gap down will be watched for a buying opportunity, as long as there is support and a pattern to lean against.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to sign up to the list at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com to get the Market Autopsy video delivered to your inbox this weekend.
tiny
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Gap down
We start today with a gap down, but above out overnight lows
I'll be watching to see if they get tested first before stepping in for a fade
tiny
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
How are those super gurus doing calling the top weeks ago
Those filthbag lying criminal front running super scumbag gurus who called the highs "soon after" the last FOMC meeting really nailed it I guess!
They know nothing about the market, or te trend that move it. Stop being sheep!
Learn how the market works, don;t rely on someone else's gut, feelings or dreams (yes they pick stocks based on dreams!)
tiny
They know nothing about the market, or te trend that move it. Stop being sheep!
Learn how the market works, don;t rely on someone else's gut, feelings or dreams (yes they pick stocks based on dreams!)
tiny
Gap up
Looks like this gap will qualify to be watched for a fade.
Going to see if the cash S&P gets its new high here, QQQ appears to be gaping into it
tiny
Going to see if the cash S&P gets its new high here, QQQ appears to be gaping into it
tiny
Monday, August 20, 2012
Friday, August 17, 2012
The super gurus never quit
Despite being slapped by regulatory agencies, these filth bag, bad breathed freak super gurus still hype up FB.
Whoever would call that stock LONG into the lockup period expiration so they can use the pump to sell their shares should be in jail, period.
Funny, those that call brokers scumbags and make comments about how they are helping people are doing nothing but robbing the sheep that are following them.
If you have been victimized by these crooks, contact the NFA, SEC, FNRA, CFTC, your State Attorney General and the FTC.
Give them what they deserve.
Learn to trade, not follow blindly
tiny
Whoever would call that stock LONG into the lockup period expiration so they can use the pump to sell their shares should be in jail, period.
Funny, those that call brokers scumbags and make comments about how they are helping people are doing nothing but robbing the sheep that are following them.
If you have been victimized by these crooks, contact the NFA, SEC, FNRA, CFTC, your State Attorney General and the FTC.
Give them what they deserve.
Learn to trade, not follow blindly
tiny
Move before the open
The market was down about 2 ticks a few minutes before the open, when buying came in and sent us to take out the highs from yesterday into the opening bell
sicne then, we've seen some rejection, as work gets done adn profits secured.
From here, it could just chop it out, but I will be watching for a retest up if we cna hold the overnight range on a retest down
tiny
sicne then, we've seen some rejection, as work gets done adn profits secured.
From here, it could just chop it out, but I will be watching for a retest up if we cna hold the overnight range on a retest down
tiny
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Small gap
Another small gap, so I'm passing on the fade here and waiting for the first push off the open
tiny
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
So far, I'm wrong
If you watched my video or are a subscriber to my list (it's free, sign up at http://stockmarkettrendsx.com) you heard me talk about today's plan, whcih was to watch for early upsdie for a shoritng opportunity for a test back down to the Tuesday lows.
We did test, and even break the lows from Tuesday, but that was in the overnight session. So far today, while the push up early on has pulled in and was faded, we haven't come near today;s lows, nevermind yesterdays.
My plan for the afternoon is to watch to see what breaks out of this congestion we are seeing. We had a nice triangle, but the break did not get to the highs, and now the break down from that pattern hasn't led anywhere either.
We "should" move this afternoon, as the ADX On the 5 minute chart is now below the 15 mark, but direction is still up in the air, so to speak.
tiny
We did test, and even break the lows from Tuesday, but that was in the overnight session. So far today, while the push up early on has pulled in and was faded, we haven't come near today;s lows, nevermind yesterdays.
My plan for the afternoon is to watch to see what breaks out of this congestion we are seeing. We had a nice triangle, but the break did not get to the highs, and now the break down from that pattern hasn't led anywhere either.
We "should" move this afternoon, as the ADX On the 5 minute chart is now below the 15 mark, but direction is still up in the air, so to speak.
tiny
Good news
The good news is that the triangle that I highlighted in the previous post suggests that the chop, at least for today may be coming to an end sooner than later.
Despite us being mildly positive on the session, the tirangle does NOT predict direction, just that a move is coming
It loks like it may enve break before lunchtime, but we'll see how that plays out
The first targets off a break are the extremes of the pattern
tiny
Despite us being mildly positive on the session, the tirangle does NOT predict direction, just that a move is coming
It loks like it may enve break before lunchtime, but we'll see how that plays out
The first targets off a break are the extremes of the pattern
tiny
The Euro
tiny
We'll have to wait on that TLT double bottom
TLT double bottom that was mentioned yesterday looks broken. It never confirmed, but the formation si now cracked. Watch for the 200 day as the next support down at 120.33
tiny
tiny
Small overnight range
Small overnight range and a lame gap will keep me on the sidelines for the open.
I'll be watching for this tight range to break and watch for a trade off of that move (fade or go with)
tiny
I'll be watching for this tight range to break and watch for a trade off of that move (fade or go with)
tiny
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
TLT
Possible double bottom setting up here on the daily chart of the TLT
So far, we fell .05 shy of testing the lows from August 9th, but its clsoe enough as thye say.
Nowhere near confirmed yet, just a possible setup as of now, and there's nothing wrong with watching
tiny
So far, we fell .05 shy of testing the lows from August 9th, but its clsoe enough as thye say.
Nowhere near confirmed yet, just a possible setup as of now, and there's nothing wrong with watching
tiny
An accetpable gap
We have an acceptable gap to watch for a fade, but the current development leaves me looking for a push over the overnight highs before watching for an entry
tiny
tiny
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Friday, August 10, 2012
Paul Schatz on CNBC today, Friday August 10th at 3PM Eastern
Tune in to CNBC at 3PM today, Friday, August 10th and see what Paul Schatz has to say about the market and the economy
It's pretty amazing to me that someone who was once slamemd for "not having an original thought in his head" by some scumbag front running pump and dumper gets so many appearances.
Apparently, those that are in the know tend to disagree with that filthbag.
Tune in and see for yourself!
tiny
It's pretty amazing to me that someone who was once slamemd for "not having an original thought in his head" by some scumbag front running pump and dumper gets so many appearances.
Apparently, those that are in the know tend to disagree with that filthbag.
Tune in and see for yourself!
tiny
Decent size gap down
Gap down to start the session qualifies as one to watch for a fade
We are close to the overnight lows, so I will watch to se eif we test there and pivot off of it.
tiny
We are close to the overnight lows, so I will watch to se eif we test there and pivot off of it.
tiny
video for today
Have no idea where my video went
It was a choppy day yesterday, and I'm watching to see if we get any Friday action. If not, and we just chop it out, it will be an early weekend
tiny
It was a choppy day yesterday, and I'm watching to see if we get any Friday action. If not, and we just chop it out, it will be an early weekend
tiny
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Small gap to start the session
Small gap to start the session, so I'm passing on watching for a fade here
I want to watch tos ee if we try the overnight lows before the small fill. If we do, I'll be watching that for an entry
tiny
I want to watch tos ee if we try the overnight lows before the small fill. If we do, I'll be watching that for an entry
tiny
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
They fill the gap, but that's it, for now
Tuesday's lows were 1395.50, and we kissed it, now the lap comes in at 96.75
If we can't hold up here, we can see a retest of those overnight lows
No real heavy economic reports due out, but we do have the crude inventories report due out at 10:30
tiny
If we can't hold up here, we can see a retest of those overnight lows
No real heavy economic reports due out, but we do have the crude inventories report due out at 10:30
tiny
Gap down
Today's gap down meets my requirements to watch for a fade.
I'd like to see the overnight lows get tested, as the gap from yesterday is still open and that comes around the overnighters, but we will see what the agenda is early on.
tiny
I'd like to see the overnight lows get tested, as the gap from yesterday is still open and that comes around the overnighters, but we will see what the agenda is early on.
tiny
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Ready, set, chop...
The market continues to chop it up here, but at least the range is better than yesterday
Volume is coming in better as well, as the Bulls are continuing to fight here, trying to stay above 1400 for the close.
We could see some fireworks into the last half hour, but I'm not counting my chickens before they lay their what do you call them
tiny
Volume is coming in better as well, as the Bulls are continuing to fight here, trying to stay above 1400 for the close.
We could see some fireworks into the last half hour, but I'm not counting my chickens before they lay their what do you call them
tiny
Let's look at these 2 scenarios...
We have eased off the highs after coming just shy of the May 1st levels, basis the S&P Futures.
We are now creeping down towards the high volume level of the day, which is 1399.25. If/when we get there, two things could play out:
We stop there and get a bounce back to the highs OR we slow down, build some value and then trade lower, to the open first and then yesterday high volume level at 1394.
Breadth is still ok (currently just over +1k), but like yesterday, is easing off it's best levels. This will have change to give the Bulls a shot in the arm.
tiny
We are now creeping down towards the high volume level of the day, which is 1399.25. If/when we get there, two things could play out:
We stop there and get a bounce back to the highs OR we slow down, build some value and then trade lower, to the open first and then yesterday high volume level at 1394.
Breadth is still ok (currently just over +1k), but like yesterday, is easing off it's best levels. This will have change to give the Bulls a shot in the arm.
tiny
First hour is in
With yesterday being a narrow range day, we have to watch for a first hour breakout/breakdown that actually catches some momentum to see if we have a trend day
currently, we are at the highs, so a breakout is more likely than a breakdown, but for aggressive Bulls, the question has to be whether it will stick or not.
So far, the only shorts that are trapped are the ones that sold the open, the 1400 (basis the S&P Futures) sellers have not been punished yet, but another have the late to the 1400 party buyers.
It's another chopperific morning, but as I said in my video last night, I'd rather see a morning consolidation and then an afternoon expansion in volatility.
Of course, what I'd rather see is not what happens, sometimes the market doesn't get my memos!
tiny
currently, we are at the highs, so a breakout is more likely than a breakdown, but for aggressive Bulls, the question has to be whether it will stick or not.
So far, the only shorts that are trapped are the ones that sold the open, the 1400 (basis the S&P Futures) sellers have not been punished yet, but another have the late to the 1400 party buyers.
It's another chopperific morning, but as I said in my video last night, I'd rather see a morning consolidation and then an afternoon expansion in volatility.
Of course, what I'd rather see is not what happens, sometimes the market doesn't get my memos!
tiny
Looking for 1400
No fade of the open, now looking to see if they try for 1400, basis the S&P futures (they are already there on the cash)
tiny
tiny
Gap up
Not a huge one, but one that qualifies as a potential fading op here as we take out yesterday's highs
Are they going to go to 1400 first or will they fade it off the open?
tiny
Are they going to go to 1400 first or will they fade it off the open?
tiny
Monday, August 6, 2012
Wow is this brutal!
6 point range on the session, makes last Monday;s 11 pointer seem like a large range day. We can't even put in a 10 point range, which is what I tend to look for at the least on a narrow range session.
With still 2 hours to go I guess we could break this logjam here and extend the range a bit, but I wouldn't count on it, and as of now, it's just completely brutal.
tiny
With still 2 hours to go I guess we could break this logjam here and extend the range a bit, but I wouldn't count on it, and as of now, it's just completely brutal.
tiny
Paul Schatz on Fox Business at 1PM
Paul Schatz will be on Fox Business at 1PM Eastern
Here's the release from Paul:
Here's the release from Paul:
| FOX Business Monday at 1pm est |
| Posted August 5, 2012 |
| I am going to be on FOX Business' Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below. After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday's data were "better than expected", but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth. And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal "seasonal adjustments" accounted for a significant number of jobs created. What continues to amaze me is how many "experts" think this recovery is anything other than normal following a financial crisis. As I have said for three years, the economy we are living through right now is what typically happens after a systemic meltdown. It's lukewarm, tepid and any other adjective you want to throw in. If history continues to guide us, the real progress on the jobs front will happen on the other side of the next recession, which I happe n to believe will be mild given the almost $3T in cash on corporate balance sheets and how lean corporate America has become. The markets reacted very favorably to the news on Friday, but Europe and our futures were already in rally mode before the employment report was released. With the disappointing lack of news from our Fed and the ECB and the positive jobs report, the Dow ended last week almost exactly where it began the week. As I mentioned in the last few Street$marts, there are a few key indicators to watch for clues to the next big market move. On the positive side, high yield bonds are making new highs and the semiconductors are trying to step up and lead. But the Dow Jones Transportation index, S&P Mid Cap 400 and Russell 2000 Small Cap need to get into gear for this rally to last much longer. We also need to see less defensive sectors outperform the market. For a while now, it's been consumer staples, utilitie s, REITs and biotech, not your typical healthy bull market leadership. Could the Dow reach up to visit its 2012 peak? Sure. But unless something changes dramatically, I think it will be your typical summer selling opportunity in a presidential election year more than anything else. As always, please feel free to contact me directly at or by hitting reply with any questions or comments. Paul |
Watching these highs
No new highs on the last uptick, but its far from Bearish. Breadth pretty decent at +1400s, but not what it was Friday
tiny
tiny
10 point range
10 point live range on the session comes in at 1399.75 (I would think 1400 would be kissed at that point) or down at 85.50
On expected choppy days, I like to watch for the first 10 points to be established to get a feel for the early on structure. Obviously, there's no guarantee it happens, or that these levels are the boundaries of that range. we could uptick and then turn around and have to adjust the numbers
tiny
On expected choppy days, I like to watch for the first 10 points to be established to get a feel for the early on structure. Obviously, there's no guarantee it happens, or that these levels are the boundaries of that range. we could uptick and then turn around and have to adjust the numbers
tiny
Small gap up
We have a small gap up to start the session/week, and it appears it already filled.
I'm looking to see what we do at overnight highs
Usually, 2 way trading, at least in the morning after a big day is the norm
tiny
I'm looking to see what we do at overnight highs
Usually, 2 way trading, at least in the morning after a big day is the norm
tiny
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Friday, August 3, 2012
Market Update
Initial fade off the overnight highs didn't go very far, and then we walked it back up to the ISM Number. SO far, the release is providing more of a flutter than anything so we'll see if the Bulls want to make it a trend day or not.
1387.50 is a big number, it's not only Monday's high, but the best level we have seen in a number of months.
We could rotate down before that number, to give the super aggressive Bulls fits, but for now, we are holding steady here as we decide where we want to go. If we get the 87.50s, do we double top it there or rip it through and head for the blue skies?
As I finish this up we are now only a few ticks off those highs
tiny
1387.50 is a big number, it's not only Monday's high, but the best level we have seen in a number of months.
We could rotate down before that number, to give the super aggressive Bulls fits, but for now, we are holding steady here as we decide where we want to go. If we get the 87.50s, do we double top it there or rip it through and head for the blue skies?
As I finish this up we are now only a few ticks off those highs
tiny
Nice gap up
The Jobs Report has put a cherry on top of a ice move overnight by the market. The market started getting Off the European session and a not bad Jobs report juiced it a little bit more
We now have a nice size gap up that I'll be looking to fade it off the right setup and some resistance to lean into.
Overnight highs are the first level of interest for me.
Have a great day
tiny
We now have a nice size gap up that I'll be looking to fade it off the right setup and some resistance to lean into.
Overnight highs are the first level of interest for me.
Have a great day
tiny
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
The Fed in about 30
The FOMC announcement is set for about 30 minutes form now
In my opinion, there will not be a QE3 announcement today. What this does to the market is the big question, and despite what some super gurus may tell you, it's a crap shoot.
Reacting to the reaction of the announcement is alwasy the more prudent strategy, so I'll be on the sideliens awaiting movement, if indeed it does happen. I think we should get some sort of movement, but who knows?
Remember, we still have the ECB announcement tomorrow and Job Numbers on Friday.
tiny
In my opinion, there will not be a QE3 announcement today. What this does to the market is the big question, and despite what some super gurus may tell you, it's a crap shoot.
Reacting to the reaction of the announcement is alwasy the more prudent strategy, so I'll be on the sideliens awaiting movement, if indeed it does happen. I think we should get some sort of movement, but who knows?
Remember, we still have the ECB announcement tomorrow and Job Numbers on Friday.
tiny
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