Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Prop firms
Thankfully, the CBSX and the SEC stepped in, and made it mandatory for those scam artist backed prop firms to require licenses for all traders.
That's another nice scam down the drain for these scumbags. Thankfully
If anyone offers you the opportunity to trade at one of these firms, ask them what their cut is. They will likely lie or avoid the question. They'll blame the hurricane (even if they are in the midwest), someone being sick, or some other made up story in order to avoid the truth.
DONT BELIVE THE HYPE
If the firm is legitimate, they wil inform you that you must be licensed and they will tell you the proper procedure for getting your license.
tiny
That's another nice scam down the drain for these scumbags. Thankfully
If anyone offers you the opportunity to trade at one of these firms, ask them what their cut is. They will likely lie or avoid the question. They'll blame the hurricane (even if they are in the midwest), someone being sick, or some other made up story in order to avoid the truth.
DONT BELIVE THE HYPE
If the firm is legitimate, they wil inform you that you must be licensed and they will tell you the proper procedure for getting your license.
tiny
Taking some time
I'm taking some time off to spend with my family before my two oldest go back to school and the summer ends.
Ill try to throw something up on the blog every day so the hag can earn her 50k a year for spying.
I'll probably do the SPY video, but the Stock Market Watch List videos will be paused until the day after Labor Day.
Have a great holiday.
tiny
Ill try to throw something up on the blog every day so the hag can earn her 50k a year for spying.
I'll probably do the SPY video, but the Stock Market Watch List videos will be paused until the day after Labor Day.
Have a great holiday.
tiny
Measured move hit
The measured move we've been watching for the past few days has been hit plus a little bonus for good measure
From here, we can either chop it out into the Friday or start a pullback, but I tihnk the former is more likely.
tiny
From here, we can either chop it out into the Friday or start a pullback, but I tihnk the former is more likely.
tiny
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Premature bears
Starting to see some short term traders shifting gears back to the downside here.
It may be a bit premature, but we'll see soon enough. I think we get at least to the measured move that I've been talking about, if not the 50 day moving average before we get a decent pullback.
tiny
It may be a bit premature, but we'll see soon enough. I think we get at least to the measured move that I've been talking about, if not the 50 day moving average before we get a decent pullback.
tiny
Bond close
Trying to break higher here, but TICK is diverging, which suggests it wont get through this time
Breadth could be better here but near the highs and trying
tiny
Breadth could be better here but near the highs and trying
tiny
Trying to push higher
Breadth getting better, but still less than +200 as I type this. Will it be enough to get us to fresh highs on the session?
Watch for failure up here for a possible short sale opportunity if there is no confirmation of a break.
tiny
Watch for failure up here for a possible short sale opportunity if there is no confirmation of a break.
tiny
Another "easy" fade goes down the drain
Please stop listening to the super gurus and their henchmen. They make opening fades out to be easy as cherry pie, and 100% winners. They are NEITHER.
Trading isn't easy. If it was, NO ONE would make money. Don't let these con artists hoodwink you into thinking that they care about you. They want your money, and will do whatever it takes to pick your pockets, all while screaching "we help people!"
The sheep get slaughtered another day. Seek higher ground, grab an education, and formulate your own day to day trading plan. It's fine to look for information but make your own decisions!
tiny
Trading isn't easy. If it was, NO ONE would make money. Don't let these con artists hoodwink you into thinking that they care about you. They want your money, and will do whatever it takes to pick your pockets, all while screaching "we help people!"
The sheep get slaughtered another day. Seek higher ground, grab an education, and formulate your own day to day trading plan. It's fine to look for information but make your own decisions!
tiny
Chopping away
A nice choppy day as the market rests, at least for now.
Breadth is neutral, no tip of the hand either way.
Let's see if something sets up after lunch.
tiny
Breadth is neutral, no tip of the hand either way.
Let's see if something sets up after lunch.
tiny
Monday, August 29, 2011
The following is political in nature
I apologize in advance for bringing politics to this blog. I'll likely lose followers because of this post, but so be it.
10 years ago my country was attacked by a bunch of cowards. They slammed airplanes into buildings and changed many people's lives forever.
My President at the time was George W. Bush. After he sent our soldiers into Afghanistan his approval rating went through the roof. The same people that later criticized him were praising him and one liar I know in particular was telling me how he hoped that Bush "bombed the living sh** out of them", and then later he went to sing "nah nah" at him when President Obama was inaugurated.
My favorite twist was when people like Michael Moore and his alleged movie pinpointed when Bush was told the news that we were attacked and didn't jump up and run out of the classroom, but instead sat their in shock, composed himself and then left without scaring the crap out of the kids he was in the classroom with. How dare he not get up and start going crazy!
President Bush vowed to never let these scumbags attack us again on our homeground. At the time, a friend who's not a friend anymore (and I dont know why) said we would never catch Osama Bin Coward, and that Bush would eventually go down as one of the greatest Presidents we have ever had. he was wrong on the first part, and the second remains to be seen.
If anyone hasn't seen the special that National Geographic is airing this week, they should. Even the strongest Bush hater would have to respect the man after watching the interview with him, or they have no patriotism, and no comprehension of how difficult the situation that he faced actually was.
I know there are many that blame Bush for the current economic crisis, but no one was blaming him when they were making a million dollars a month, or exploiting the common folks with their get rich quick and easy schemes because money was flowing like water. I guess it was ok then, huh?
I would say they ought to be ashamed, but they have no shame left in them.
If you think I'm going to end my rant with a bash of President Obama, think again. I'll lose more followers because of this, but I don't really care. President Obama got Bin Laden. Yes, Bush started the hunt, but Obama got him. I know the stories about who really gave the order and he did this to deflect the job he's doing or whatever, blah blah blah.
I'll worry about the economy and pointing fingers another week. For this week, it's time to give some credit where credit is due.
tiny
10 years ago my country was attacked by a bunch of cowards. They slammed airplanes into buildings and changed many people's lives forever.
My President at the time was George W. Bush. After he sent our soldiers into Afghanistan his approval rating went through the roof. The same people that later criticized him were praising him and one liar I know in particular was telling me how he hoped that Bush "bombed the living sh** out of them", and then later he went to sing "nah nah" at him when President Obama was inaugurated.
My favorite twist was when people like Michael Moore and his alleged movie pinpointed when Bush was told the news that we were attacked and didn't jump up and run out of the classroom, but instead sat their in shock, composed himself and then left without scaring the crap out of the kids he was in the classroom with. How dare he not get up and start going crazy!
President Bush vowed to never let these scumbags attack us again on our homeground. At the time, a friend who's not a friend anymore (and I dont know why) said we would never catch Osama Bin Coward, and that Bush would eventually go down as one of the greatest Presidents we have ever had. he was wrong on the first part, and the second remains to be seen.
If anyone hasn't seen the special that National Geographic is airing this week, they should. Even the strongest Bush hater would have to respect the man after watching the interview with him, or they have no patriotism, and no comprehension of how difficult the situation that he faced actually was.
I know there are many that blame Bush for the current economic crisis, but no one was blaming him when they were making a million dollars a month, or exploiting the common folks with their get rich quick and easy schemes because money was flowing like water. I guess it was ok then, huh?
I would say they ought to be ashamed, but they have no shame left in them.
If you think I'm going to end my rant with a bash of President Obama, think again. I'll lose more followers because of this, but I don't really care. President Obama got Bin Laden. Yes, Bush started the hunt, but Obama got him. I know the stories about who really gave the order and he did this to deflect the job he's doing or whatever, blah blah blah.
I'll worry about the economy and pointing fingers another week. For this week, it's time to give some credit where credit is due.
tiny
Surveying the damage
I just got back and ready to actually take a nap here. I was up at 6AM and went to help some friends out who got whacked by the storm.
It's ironic that the people I helped get ready for the hurricane didn't need it, as they, like me managed to avoid any issues, but others just got slammed.
Anyway, from what I have heard the super gurus gap fading following sheep got yoinked as there was no fade today (even though GOOG fired off and is ugly underwater..... ouch!) and as of now it looks like we are in chop mode. Breadth is very strong, and volume is on a light pace, as expected.
That's probably it for me today, but I'll be back tonight with the videos.
tiny
It's ironic that the people I helped get ready for the hurricane didn't need it, as they, like me managed to avoid any issues, but others just got slammed.
Anyway, from what I have heard the super gurus gap fading following sheep got yoinked as there was no fade today (even though GOOG fired off and is ugly underwater..... ouch!) and as of now it looks like we are in chop mode. Breadth is very strong, and volume is on a light pace, as expected.
That's probably it for me today, but I'll be back tonight with the videos.
tiny
Sunday, August 28, 2011
POT analysis for a reader
Here's some POT analysis for a reader of my blog.
Friday was a nice day for POT, as the stock gained 4.65% and busted through the key moving averages, which are stacked quite nicely. Volume was good, as it managed to turnover greater than it's 50 day average, but was not great, as we saw better volume just a few sessions ago.
Resistance is just above at the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing down, followed by the 78.6% retracement at 59.60s. Support sits at the 50% mark of Friday's big green candle, and the moving averages that were just freshly broken.
After expansion days, I like to watch for consoldiation, at least in the AM, so watch for moves BOTH ways for potential fading opportunities until a consodlaiton pattenr forms.
tiny
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Anderson Silva: can anyone beat him?
Looks like they are going to have to do something to get him and St Pierre in the ring, or else its gonna get dull in those divisions very soon
tiny
tiny
Some great news!
I got some great news today. Someone wrote me and told me they were all set to go to a super deluxe seminar with their buddy in September, but they did a little due diligence and canceled.
If I save one person (in this case 2) by ranting the way I do, then I've done my job and it's all worth it.
{big smile}
By the way, I wasn't told what seminar they canceled, but there are no shortages of scamathons available!
tiny
If I save one person (in this case 2) by ranting the way I do, then I've done my job and it's all worth it.
{big smile}
By the way, I wasn't told what seminar they canceled, but there are no shortages of scamathons available!
tiny
They just declared my town a disaster area!
Awesome! It is raining bulls and bears though, but hey no drought issues i guess.
tiny
tiny
1-3 weeks?
Wow, I just read that the electric copany is warning people that they are expecting serious outages due to Hurricane Irene, and that the expected downtime could be 1-3 weeks!
Are they just being overly cautious, or could this really be the case?
Time to do the videos I guess.
If you don't hear from me for a bit, have a good month or so trading!
tiny
Are they just being overly cautious, or could this really be the case?
Time to do the videos I guess.
If you don't hear from me for a bit, have a good month or so trading!
tiny
Friday, August 26, 2011
Euro
The Euro is trying to break the weekly coil into end of week, but it's not going to be easy
Next week should be telling as to whether it wants to break or stay nice and cozy in it's range.
tiny
Next week should be telling as to whether it wants to break or stay nice and cozy in it's range.
tiny
AAPL
Beautiful breakout of the mini coil talked about in the video last night, and sent out to the e-mail list.
Not on the email list yet? Details coming soon, and I scrub the list for hags, so don't even try it 3-seater!
tiny
Not on the email list yet? Details coming soon, and I scrub the list for hags, so don't even try it 3-seater!
tiny
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Watching AAPL here
I just got back, I've been out all day helping a partner of mine get some of his properties ready for the storm that's coming. I think hes being over cautious, but hey, what can ya do?
I missed the sweetheart fade, and I'm on about 2 hours sleep, but never the less I'm watching to see if AAPL can get green
Hope you had a good fade if you grabbed it.
tiny
I missed the sweetheart fade, and I'm on about 2 hours sleep, but never the less I'm watching to see if AAPL can get green
Hope you had a good fade if you grabbed it.
tiny
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Could be a sweetheart fading opp Thursday
Steve Jobs resigned, AAPL is cracked after hours. this could offer a juicy opportunity for a fade. These are the kinds of over emotional moves that you should be watching for on gaps.
More on this tonight in the video
tiny
More on this tonight in the video
tiny
Following the model
Early two way action is following the model for the day, but weakness is starting to come in here a bit as breadth has moved down to -600s.
Let's see what happens when lunch ends at 1 (contrary to the super guru's beliefs that lunch starts at 1, ahh the idiocy never ends)
tiny
Let's see what happens when lunch ends at 1 (contrary to the super guru's beliefs that lunch starts at 1, ahh the idiocy never ends)
tiny
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Well lookey here...
On Tuesday we started the bounce that I've been waiting on for the last few days. Of course, it came just as I faded on the theory that a bounce was coming, but hey, at least I didn't get ultra uber bearish like the super gurus, who will now just deny it and erase their opinions from public view, or give the good ole "I thought this could happen" excuse. They surely didn't "think it could happen" Monday when they were screaming bloody murder and that the sky was falling (so to speak). It's actually quite comical how they poach from other services and gurus, while thinking no one knows where they got their ideas from. Ah well, a scoundrel is as a scoundrel does.
I don't feel "the low" is in, but once again, we could have "a low" here as this test down had shown an inter-market divergence. The NASADQ 100 ($NDX) and Russell 2000 ($RUT), which are considered leading indexes did get a test of lows, while the Dow and S&P 500 had higher lows put in. Usually this means that the "work is not done". This doesn't mean we can't bounce here for a little bit, as we continue to fill out the corrective pattern that started a few weeks back. The $NDX and $RUT did LEAD on Tuesday's bounce, which is a good sign on the short term.
My opinion remains the same: Ultra-short term bullish, longer term bearish. I think we have lower to go, and believe we will go lower after we finish up whatever pattern we are forming here.
tiny
I don't feel "the low" is in, but once again, we could have "a low" here as this test down had shown an inter-market divergence. The NASADQ 100 ($NDX) and Russell 2000 ($RUT), which are considered leading indexes did get a test of lows, while the Dow and S&P 500 had higher lows put in. Usually this means that the "work is not done". This doesn't mean we can't bounce here for a little bit, as we continue to fill out the corrective pattern that started a few weeks back. The $NDX and $RUT did LEAD on Tuesday's bounce, which is a good sign on the short term.
My opinion remains the same: Ultra-short term bullish, longer term bearish. I think we have lower to go, and believe we will go lower after we finish up whatever pattern we are forming here.
tiny
Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold trading over 1900
Gold has become parabolic here, and is due for a correction. Stepping in front of this freight train is not a prudent business plan, but watching for a reversal candle and a momentum divergence could set up a nice trade.
It may or may not get to $2000, but its stretched enough here to start watching for a signal. Stay patient, but alert, as an opportunity for a quick move to the downside could come sooner than later.
tiny
It may or may not get to $2000, but its stretched enough here to start watching for a signal. Stay patient, but alert, as an opportunity for a quick move to the downside could come sooner than later.
tiny
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Missing the open!
Another late night in Joisey, so I'm sleeping in. I'll catch up about mid morning.
Trade well
tiny
Trade well
tiny
Hopefully the super guru scam artists are next
http://news.yahoo.com/8-charged-alleged-40m-fla-fortune-telling-scam-203920656.html
They are rounding up the scoundrels, time to grab the super hypesters that lose their sheep all their money.....40 milion is a drop in the hat compared to what these super gurus have scammed...
They are rounding up the scoundrels, time to grab the super hypesters that lose their sheep all their money.....40 milion is a drop in the hat compared to what these super gurus have scammed...
Friday, August 19, 2011
Nice fade, typical OE
Nice fade today, and from there it's been typical option expiration day action, despite the super gurus predicting a volatile day.
Volume on a brisk pace as expected, but unless something breaks in the afternoon, we should remain choppy.
Im gone for the day but this weekend I'll be doing a video on the Euro move that is setting up. Just to take all the "mystery" out of it [lol] I won't be predicitng direction, that's a fool's game based on the pattern that the Euro is currently set up in.
Have a great rest of the trading day,
tiny
Volume on a brisk pace as expected, but unless something breaks in the afternoon, we should remain choppy.
Im gone for the day but this weekend I'll be doing a video on the Euro move that is setting up. Just to take all the "mystery" out of it [lol] I won't be predicitng direction, that's a fool's game based on the pattern that the Euro is currently set up in.
Have a great rest of the trading day,
tiny
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Just what the tiny ordered
If you've been watching my videos over the last few days, you know that I've been looking for a pullback that HOLDS support for a potential buying op for a swing back higher. I dont think we go far, I don't think we are in a bull market, I dont think we have seen the lows. I do think that the correction of the big push down the last few weeks can be more complex than just a few days up and {sploosh} again.
After Thursday's action, my thoughts haven't changed, BUT there is no evidence that the support has held, yet. Yes, we have held the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the bounce off the lows on a closing basis, but so what? We'll need to watch the action over the next few days to confirm that this low is holding, even for a small bounce.
tiny
P.S. If the lows of today are taken out, next support is 112.61. Below that and I think we get at least a full retracement, if not a 127% external retracement of the last swing.
After Thursday's action, my thoughts haven't changed, BUT there is no evidence that the support has held, yet. Yes, we have held the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the bounce off the lows on a closing basis, but so what? We'll need to watch the action over the next few days to confirm that this low is holding, even for a small bounce.
tiny
P.S. If the lows of today are taken out, next support is 112.61. Below that and I think we get at least a full retracement, if not a 127% external retracement of the last swing.
Going to lunch
Heading to lunch, but keep an eye on this pattern here, we stil look like we want to try and lift, but we are swimming upstream against the breadth. Watch for a change there
tiny
tiny
breadth improving, a little bit
We are trying to put a bottom in here, but the breadth keeps me from being anywhere close to confident that it will happen, even though it's upticking a little bit
I can't get off the fence, my rules are my rules
tiny
I can't get off the fence, my rules are my rules
tiny
volume is brisk
Volume is strong relative to the last few days here.
Makings a short term reversal? If breath wasn't so awful, I would have some confidence in that theory. As for now, it's continual wait and see.
tiny
Makings a short term reversal? If breath wasn't so awful, I would have some confidence in that theory. As for now, it's continual wait and see.
tiny
AMZN and GOOG
AMZN hits the 200 day MA, GOOG gets the bonus from the breakdown triggered on Tuesday.
View the Stock Market Watch List videos from the past few days for more on these.
tiny
View the Stock Market Watch List videos from the past few days for more on these.
tiny
Super gurus and their gaps....OUCH!
Another day the super guru gets smacked with the gap fades
Get away as quickly as you can from these maggots and their henchmen (and henchwomen), they can do nothing but harm you...
As I've said multiple times, everyone is wrong at times, but when these scum tell you how things are 'easy" and make you feel ashamed for not making money, they are the lowest of low.
It's all just a scheme to get your money.
They make you feel that you aren't paying enough to get the "good stuff" and then the next pitch is for them to manage your money for you. They never quit at their scams.
tiny
Get away as quickly as you can from these maggots and their henchmen (and henchwomen), they can do nothing but harm you...
As I've said multiple times, everyone is wrong at times, but when these scum tell you how things are 'easy" and make you feel ashamed for not making money, they are the lowest of low.
It's all just a scheme to get your money.
They make you feel that you aren't paying enough to get the "good stuff" and then the next pitch is for them to manage your money for you. They never quit at their scams.
tiny
Breadth awful, but
Breadth is pretty awful, but we have a possible highe rlow in place at the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the swing up off the lows
This is basis the SPY
Can't fight breadth, but definitely worth watching
tiny
This is basis the SPY
Can't fight breadth, but definitely worth watching
tiny
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
A good few days to be away
These past few days are good days to be away form the screen it appears, although I'm sure the super gurus are KILLING IT! Or, at least saying they are.....
tiny
tiny
Another choppy day
Let's see if we get a move in the afternoon, but as of now, we are still in digestion mode
tiny
tiny
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Monday, August 15, 2011
Some awesome news
I'm very close to collaborating with a ridiculously awesome chat room moderator and trade caller. If this deal gets done, we will form a fantastic team for stocks, futures, and currencies.
No hype, no double talk, just great information that will assist you in your trading.
More to come shortly!
tiny
No hype, no double talk, just great information that will assist you in your trading.
More to come shortly!
tiny
Bulls win....I guess
Market is going out on it's highs, but volume is lame. Sure seems like the bulls are swimming upstream here as we await the other shoe to drop.
tiny
tiny
Choppy market
Good morning......ummmm afternoon!
Market is choppy here as another no fade day sheers the super gurus sheep! PLEASE check out a real trading room for the love of kittens! You don't need to be paying a mortgage payment to get front run and pumped and dumped!
The Euro is getting a nice move on the session, but still overall in a range. ADX is up ticking. Will the breakout come to the upside?
tiny
Market is choppy here as another no fade day sheers the super gurus sheep! PLEASE check out a real trading room for the love of kittens! You don't need to be paying a mortgage payment to get front run and pumped and dumped!
The Euro is getting a nice move on the session, but still overall in a range. ADX is up ticking. Will the breakout come to the upside?
tiny
Sunday, August 14, 2011
I don't know what makes you a bigger loser...
What makes you a bigger loser? Buying Facebook likes for your fan page while acting like they got their naturally, or soliciting birthday wishes? I guess they are probably equally loserish.
Pathetic doesn't even begin to describe it....
tiny
Pathetic doesn't even begin to describe it....
tiny
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Remember.....
Bernie Madoff has more honor than many of these super guru criminal hypesters
Don't be fooled with sob stories about someone being sick or how they are out to help people and do charity work, it's all PHONEY.
They are gambling addicts, which is why they NEVER follow through on what they say, they are too busy spending YOUR money or gambling with YOUR money
Do your due diligence on these filthbags and do yourself a favor, do NOT send them any money to "handle" for you.
tiny
Don't be fooled with sob stories about someone being sick or how they are out to help people and do charity work, it's all PHONEY.
They are gambling addicts, which is why they NEVER follow through on what they say, they are too busy spending YOUR money or gambling with YOUR money
Do your due diligence on these filthbags and do yourself a favor, do NOT send them any money to "handle" for you.
tiny
Some important reading for Saturday
Here are some past posts regarding scammers, criminals and scoundrels.
Read them, and make sure you are protecting yourself from their predatory schemes
Click on the words to get taken to the post:
Important when choosing a broker, and doing due diligence on super gurus and their henchmen
Forex
Hedge Funds
Follow up to that post
Hedge Funds again
Forced continuity (like free trial offers)
Finally, here's one that links to another article about how hedge funds are a scam
Enjoy!
tiny
Read them, and make sure you are protecting yourself from their predatory schemes
Click on the words to get taken to the post:
Important when choosing a broker, and doing due diligence on super gurus and their henchmen
Forex
Hedge Funds
Follow up to that post
Hedge Funds again
Forced continuity (like free trial offers)
Finally, here's one that links to another article about how hedge funds are a scam
Enjoy!
tiny
Friday, August 12, 2011
H&S target hit
Bingo, target on the head and shoudlers has been hit, now lets see if it gets any bonus points
tiny
tiny
Euro- don't fall asleep on it!
Don't fall asleep on the Euro. The daily chart has an ADX under 9 currently.
See my post here about a big move I am expecting.
tiny
See my post here about a big move I am expecting.
tiny
Possible H&S here and a late check in
Possible head and shoulders pattern setup here on the 699 tick chart with jsut a 4 point first target.
Checking in late today, I was up until 6AM reading some articles about the coming demise of the world due to this recent price action, or something like that. That's the problem with reading so late at night, I can't retain the info, if I even wanted to.
tiny
Checking in late today, I was up until 6AM reading some articles about the coming demise of the world due to this recent price action, or something like that. That's the problem with reading so late at night, I can't retain the info, if I even wanted to.
tiny
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Looks like
Looks like those sheep that followed the super guru's call for a hold into close got smoked like salmon
It's ok, a new scam is right around the corner
tiny
It's ok, a new scam is right around the corner
tiny
E wave video to watch
Prechter Discusses Market Forecasts on CNBC Closing Bell
"The problem is deeper than just a minor recovery
or a minor recession."
Robert Prechter joins CNBC hosts Bill Griffeth and Maria Bartiromo on Closing
Bell to talk about the still-unfolding forecasts presented in his New York
Times bestseller Conquer the Crash.
We invite you to watch the interview below. Then download Robert Prechter’s
free report that uses an 84-year study of stock market values to help
you prepare for and understand today’s critical market juncture.
Download Robert Prechter’s Free Report To Discover How You Can
Prepare For Today’s Critical Market Juncture
we're sure you're reading countless articles and analysis about the market's
recent volatility, if you're not reading what EWI's subscribers read, you're
missing the valuable, prescient perspective contained in each issue of Robert
Prechter's market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist.
Access Robert Prechter’s free report and read in-depth analysis -- including
an 84-year study of stock values -- that will help you prepare for and understand
today's critical market juncture.
Download
Robert Prechter's Free Report.
Strong breadth and good price action
Strong A-D line here and we just broke out of a bull flag.
Tuesday's highs are the next target, followed by 1180.
tiny
Tuesday's highs are the next target, followed by 1180.
tiny
volume on the light side
Sorry I missed the AM posts, I was actually fulfilling some of the free coaching I offered on my videos. If you want 15 minutes free with me, write me and I'll schedule you in, I have a bunch more this afternoon.
Volume appears to be on the light side as the market digests and so far, is forming an inside day.
Dont forget: Feel free to contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com to schedule 15 minutes of free coaching
tiny
Volume appears to be on the light side as the market digests and so far, is forming an inside day.
Dont forget: Feel free to contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com to schedule 15 minutes of free coaching
tiny
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
WARNING: Be careful of hypesters managing your money
I know I've said it before, but PLEASE do your due diligence before sending any money to hypesters and CRIMINALS who have started or are starting hedge funds, managed money programs, and commodity pools.
Here's the thing, I know you want to believe them when they tell you they are trying to do "right by their members" or whatever lie they make up, but they are super hypocrites and want nothing more than to pick your pockets.
After all, they are the biggest screamers about "brokers being bad people", although they endorse the worst ones because they pay the best and how you should "learn to fish" but yet take your money to manage at ridiculously high rates.
Here is a quick due diligence checklist, but not an all inclusive one:
1)Find out how much money the person running the fund has in. Ask why that amount? If it's only a fraction of their net worth, ask them why so little? If they believe it enough to sell you on loan shark like management fees, shouldn't they be all in themselves? If there is more than 1 person running the money, find out how much EVERYONE has in the fund. If someone doesn't have any money in the fund they are pushing, ask why? Are they using you to fund their lifestyle and pay their bills? Really?
2) Ask any and all people running your money if they ever ran money before and what their performance was. You Will be surprised at the results (because they would never admit it on their blogs, facebook pages or websites) and will likely run the other way!
3) Ask what their rules for handling risk are. These scam artists take ENORMOUS draw downs in their personal accounts, having dozens of margin calls fire off over the years. What will happen when they take a wicked draw down with YOUR money?
4) Why are they starting to manage money now? Don't buy the whole "our clients asked for it" scam. They are playing another angle because their previous scams have dried up due to the fact that everyone is on to them.
Make sure there is transparency, and no lock up so you can get your money out when you start seeing the shenanigans going on, like un returned phone calls and emails. I'm sure there will be an excuse meant to tug at your heartstrings, but these people could care less about you, they just want your money.
I'll keep good thoughts for those that drank the Kool Aid.
tiny
Here's the thing, I know you want to believe them when they tell you they are trying to do "right by their members" or whatever lie they make up, but they are super hypocrites and want nothing more than to pick your pockets.
After all, they are the biggest screamers about "brokers being bad people", although they endorse the worst ones because they pay the best and how you should "learn to fish" but yet take your money to manage at ridiculously high rates.
Here is a quick due diligence checklist, but not an all inclusive one:
1)Find out how much money the person running the fund has in. Ask why that amount? If it's only a fraction of their net worth, ask them why so little? If they believe it enough to sell you on loan shark like management fees, shouldn't they be all in themselves? If there is more than 1 person running the money, find out how much EVERYONE has in the fund. If someone doesn't have any money in the fund they are pushing, ask why? Are they using you to fund their lifestyle and pay their bills? Really?
2) Ask any and all people running your money if they ever ran money before and what their performance was. You Will be surprised at the results (because they would never admit it on their blogs, facebook pages or websites) and will likely run the other way!
3) Ask what their rules for handling risk are. These scam artists take ENORMOUS draw downs in their personal accounts, having dozens of margin calls fire off over the years. What will happen when they take a wicked draw down with YOUR money?
4) Why are they starting to manage money now? Don't buy the whole "our clients asked for it" scam. They are playing another angle because their previous scams have dried up due to the fact that everyone is on to them.
Make sure there is transparency, and no lock up so you can get your money out when you start seeing the shenanigans going on, like un returned phone calls and emails. I'm sure there will be an excuse meant to tug at your heartstrings, but these people could care less about you, they just want your money.
I'll keep good thoughts for those that drank the Kool Aid.
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There was enough time!
Failure at 28.50 brought the ES down to new lows on the day
Not a good follow through day for the Bulls, thats for sure. I was exepcting at least an attempt and except for about an hour, there was no sign of the bulls present
volume was on the light side, whcih is about one of the only things I can take out of the day as a positive
More in my video that will be posted in a few
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Not a good follow through day for the Bulls, thats for sure. I was exepcting at least an attempt and except for about an hour, there was no sign of the bulls present
volume was on the light side, whcih is about one of the only things I can take out of the day as a positive
More in my video that will be posted in a few
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Push up
The push up was only worth 17 S&P points before turning back down again
1128.50 is short term support
below that we could head for low of day, but threres only 30 to go, so there may not be enough time
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1128.50 is short term support
below that we could head for low of day, but threres only 30 to go, so there may not be enough time
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Back for a little bit
No fade, instead a trap and snap move, where the first 5 minute bar gets taken out only to sharply reverse. It's also why the super guru's techniques are antiquated, to say the least. Maybe they should stop suing everyone, and work on better entries for their gap clients.
On another note, the SPY tested adn bled through the 62% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday's range, but is now back above that level. 111.88 is the key line in the sand. If that gets and stays broken, a full retracement of yesterday's lows is then expected.
It looks like we are trying to carve out a bottom here, so if breadth does improve, watch for a try back to the highs and then a try for a gap move
WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION in this kind of market, it doesnt hurt to be a little late.
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On another note, the SPY tested adn bled through the 62% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday's range, but is now back above that level. 111.88 is the key line in the sand. If that gets and stays broken, a full retracement of yesterday's lows is then expected.
It looks like we are trying to carve out a bottom here, so if breadth does improve, watch for a try back to the highs and then a try for a gap move
WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION in this kind of market, it doesnt hurt to be a little late.
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I'm walking out the door, but first
S&P Futures are down 2.15% pre market
Im leaving, but watch this for a possible gap fade after confirmation has set up
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Im leaving, but watch this for a possible gap fade after confirmation has set up
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Here ya go, another video worth watching
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
The Blog will be dark
The blog will be dark tomorrow morning, but hopefully Ill be back for some afternoon excitement!
tiny
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There is a monster move brewing in the Euro
I'm not a big fan of fundamentals, so if you want to know whats going on over in Europe re: the economy, then you will have to Google it. Let me know what you find out please!
The daily chart of the EUR/USD is showing a low ADX congestion pattern, and that will likely lead to a nice move when the Euro decides to break this logjam and make a directional move that lasts longer than a few days.
A crude measurement of the move right now says at least an 800 point move can occur, based on the width of the pattern, but that is obviously not in stone.
The problem with these wind downs is that usually before the breakout goes in the true direction, they will usually try to shake and bake the aggressive traders.
Nothing is easy and it's surely not red light, green light, but the low to high volatility cycle can be an extremely powerful one if traded correctly.
I have absolutely no opinion on direction, and I will keep saying that over and over, because what gets most traders into trouble is trying to guess direction from a non directional pattern.
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If history echoes...
The next two days should be up days if history is any guide, and could have some nice % gains on them as well.
History doesn't repeat, but it often times does echo
It's not enough to go on, because there still needs to be confirmation in the market with volume and leadership, but it's a good rough draft.
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History doesn't repeat, but it often times does echo
It's not enough to go on, because there still needs to be confirmation in the market with volume and leadership, but it's a good rough draft.
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Love those super gurus!
They tell you how great they did, even though they say that the gap on Monday should fill, and we finish at the lows
Liars! Remember, if their lips are moving, they are lying
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Liars! Remember, if their lips are moving, they are lying
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After hours movement
We are still going to the upside here as they are stil buying in the pit.
This should lead to a bounce lasting a few days at the least.
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This should lead to a bounce lasting a few days at the least.
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back to 1152
I was all over 1152 yesterday, and hey we only got a hmmmmmmmmmmmm 55 point overshoot on it as support!
let's see what we do if we remount this here
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let's see what we do if we remount this here
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New highs
You cant fight the breadth, it's been ruling the roost over the past few days
New highs here with 15 left to go, TICK hitting new highs suggesting more to come!
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New highs here with 15 left to go, TICK hitting new highs suggesting more to come!
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Nice push up here
Bulls putting it on the aggressive shorts here after the FOMC announcement
Look for a push higher into teh clsoe here
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Look for a push higher into teh clsoe here
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Euro
The Euro broke reistance and retested the FOMC announcement highs
1.4347 is next resistance to watch.
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1.4347 is next resistance to watch.
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Will the volatility subside?
Just got a quesiton: Now that we possibly have "a" low in here, wil the volatiltiy subside?
If we do bounce for a few days, volatiltiy should wind down a little bit, but don;t expect it to just go right back to the burtal choppiness we saw some days a few weks ago
Remember, anything less than 40 point ranges would be a contraction from here
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If we do bounce for a few days, volatiltiy should wind down a little bit, but don;t expect it to just go right back to the burtal choppiness we saw some days a few weks ago
Remember, anything less than 40 point ranges would be a contraction from here
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Bulls are the boss, at least for now
Good breadth readings and the pullbacks have been shallow
Let's see if we get higher into the close, but wait for a trigger, as we've seen fakeouts the last few days, and who knows if the bears want to climb back in on this pop
If we close well, then a gap down Wednesday should provide a nice gap fading opportunity
tiny
Let's see if we get higher into the close, but wait for a trigger, as we've seen fakeouts the last few days, and who knows if the bears want to climb back in on this pop
If we close well, then a gap down Wednesday should provide a nice gap fading opportunity
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Staying in the range
The range from the post FOMC move has set the tone for the last hour here
Highs are 1144.50 lows are 1097
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Highs are 1144.50 lows are 1097
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Breadth +2k
Nice and strong A-D line here, although we were seeing -3k on the last few down days
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We went up to the Post FOMC high
We didnt quite make the exact high, but we got close, and now we are pulling back down here
1126.25 support
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1126.25 support
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Big spike here
We just saw a big spike in the TICK here, let's see if it pauses before more upside into the close
The S&P goes from negative to +20s jsut like that, absolutely incredible
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The S&P goes from negative to +20s jsut like that, absolutely incredible
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The making of "a" low
Once again, I don't think we are at "the" low, but a possible low for a bounce is in place here, since we did take out yesterday's lows and reversed off of it pretty nicely here
How long this bounce lasts is anyone's guess
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How long this bounce lasts is anyone's guess
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From red to +20 in a few minutes
Absolutely extreme volatility here
And the day has some time to go yet
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And the day has some time to go yet
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Who will pull it out
Are the lows in or is the last $TICK spike down suggesitng new lows to come here into the last hour
Short term support: 1104.25
Short term resistance: 1123.50
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Short term support: 1104.25
Short term resistance: 1123.50
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Push back down to
We had a push back down to the gap fill, but a quick rejection and now we are trying to hold in here
It's the last hour of the NY session, so let's see who wants to win the day
Like a clos basketball game, it may not be decided until the buzzer
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It's the last hour of the NY session, so let's see who wants to win the day
Like a clos basketball game, it may not be decided until the buzzer
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Nice push up form 1100
23 point push up here, absolute sick volatility
TICK hit a new low on the last push down, so lets see if we get a retest down, or that was the sign of a selling climax
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TICK hit a new low on the last push down, so lets see if we get a retest down, or that was the sign of a selling climax
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next support
1100 holds for now (with a little bit of bleed through), but if we get below that, 1092 is next
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Below yesterday's lows
Looks like the Bulls put togetehr a few hours worth of work, and then just gave up trying.
We are seeing a nice push here to fresh lows
1100 support
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We are seeing a nice push here to fresh lows
1100 support
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And Nope!
No more cup adn handle, a least to me
Looks like we want a retest of the lows instead
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Looks like we want a retest of the lows instead
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Could be a small cup and handle
it looks like we could have a small cup and handle setting up on the tick chart. Im using a 699 tick chart to view it
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Gap was filled
And now a nice pop back, 20 points off the gap
Let's see what happens after the dust settles (relatively speaking) at 2:30 or so
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Let's see what happens after the dust settles (relatively speaking) at 2:30 or so
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two way action
First move was to the upside, and it got faded quickly. Now new lows got bought up, and they are retracing the last push down here, but running out of steam
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Wow
10 point bar just then I didnt see the TICK go with it so either I'm delayed TICK wise or it didnt happen
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Here we go
Rates remain unchanged. First push looks higher let's see if we get a TICK spike to go with it
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here comes the Fed
Back just in time!
Let's see how we act after the announcement. Ill be watching for a spike in price either way with an accompanying TICK move
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Let's see how we act after the announcement. Ill be watching for a spike in price either way with an accompanying TICK move
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Back for the Fed
I'll be back for the Fed, we should remain choppy (relatively speaking compared to the last few days) until then
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New highs by a few ticks
Not much follow through here so far on the push to new highs
Resistance if we get above them adn stick is 1154.50
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Resistance if we get above them adn stick is 1154.50
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Thanks for all the emails
Im sorting through them to get some questions answered that haven't be addressed yet in the posts from yesterday
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The market is crawling!
Only 4.75 points in 16 minutes!
Compared to the last few days it;s like we are closed!
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Compared to the last few days it;s like we are closed!
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Some observations
Some observations for today's market (so far):
1) The TICK has only gotten to -788
2) Today's range is not only an inside day, but so far it's inside the LAST HOUR from yesterday.
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1) The TICK has only gotten to -788
2) Today's range is not only an inside day, but so far it's inside the LAST HOUR from yesterday.
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Just got back
A few weeks ago I made an appointment for today, because well, it was the FOMC meeting and I figured it was going to be a dull day. I was reminded of my appointment last night at 11:30 when I fired up my outlook. Too late to cancel, and while I should have been back by 10, it ran over.
Nice "contracted' range today comapred to the last week or so, but still some nice setups.
From here, we can continue to form the day's range into the FOMC announcement at
2:15, but then? we might see some renewed fireworsk dependign on what is said.
Short term suport is 1131 and reistance is high of day.
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Nice "contracted' range today comapred to the last week or so, but still some nice setups.
From here, we can continue to form the day's range into the FOMC announcement at
2:15, but then? we might see some renewed fireworsk dependign on what is said.
Short term suport is 1131 and reistance is high of day.
tiny
Monday, August 8, 2011
Looks like
Well, it looks like they are trying to get those overnight margin calls cranking
Market is down in the 1090s here
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Market is down in the 1090s here
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Answering some questions
Here are some questions I have gotten over the past few days:
Q: Is the low near? A: I think "a" low is near, but not "the" low of this move. I think we ultimately have much further down to go.
Q: Is this considered a crash? A: No
Q: Is this the greatest buying opportunity of the year? A: I don't think that is the case. I think any bounce will offer a shorting opportunity for more downside
Q: Are you single? A: Yes, I mean no! Today is my anniversary, 12 years!
Q: Why do you keep looking for a bounce? A: Because the market doesn't move straight up or straight down, we are severely oversold, and we have some cycles that are set to kick in across a few time frames. I'm not necessarily looking for a bounce, as much a I am looking for levels to watch to trail stops and take profits if short.
Do you have any questions? Feel free to write me at tinymjs at gmail dot com
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Q: Is the low near? A: I think "a" low is near, but not "the" low of this move. I think we ultimately have much further down to go.
Q: Is this considered a crash? A: No
Q: Is this the greatest buying opportunity of the year? A: I don't think that is the case. I think any bounce will offer a shorting opportunity for more downside
Q: Are you single? A: Yes, I mean no! Today is my anniversary, 12 years!
Q: Why do you keep looking for a bounce? A: Because the market doesn't move straight up or straight down, we are severely oversold, and we have some cycles that are set to kick in across a few time frames. I'm not necessarily looking for a bounce, as much a I am looking for levels to watch to trail stops and take profits if short.
Do you have any questions? Feel free to write me at tinymjs at gmail dot com
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And there it goes
1100 being tested here. I haven't checked the news, so I don't know what is on the tape for this
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How it will work when we do bounce
The market doesnt go straight up or down, so we will bounce eventually.
Everyone will start talking about how skewed the readings are, how oversold, blah blah blah.
Remember, we have been marking off support levels and they keep getting SHREDDED. the whole "we can't get anymore stretched" routine is just pure nonsense, we can continue to fall untii the market decides to roll it back.
Hindsight is 20/20, and there will be a lot of that when we finally do get a bounce
today was UGLY
Everyone will start talking about how skewed the readings are, how oversold, blah blah blah.
Remember, we have been marking off support levels and they keep getting SHREDDED. the whole "we can't get anymore stretched" routine is just pure nonsense, we can continue to fall untii the market decides to roll it back.
Hindsight is 20/20, and there will be a lot of that when we finally do get a bounce
today was UGLY
VIX
Looking like it wants to hit 50 or above before this move is over
Watch tomorrow if there is any downside in the morning
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Watch tomorrow if there is any downside in the morning
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Breadth -3k, TRIN is a tad skewed
My $TRIN reading is only at 1 which is obviously a tad skewed considering the market action
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Putrid
We look like we have a better chance to close at lows then to get a push higher into end of day
This is very ugly action
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This is very ugly action
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1147.50
1147.50 was the AM low. this last punch up got 6 ticks above before reversing
If we try another bounce, that level will be key once again
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If we try another bounce, that level will be key once again
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Tuesday
Tuesday is Fed day. There is a tendency to trade higher into the FOMC announcement.
Whether that tendency holds up during this destruction remains to be seen
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Whether that tendency holds up during this destruction remains to be seen
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Breadth is the boss
Despite a few attempts at a bounce, the market has followed the breadth perfectly on the session.
Historical ratio levels are being seen here but all that means is new records are being set. A big mistake traders make (and I'm one of them), is looking for historical levels as signs of a place for a reversal to happen.
They are reference levels, but much more evidence is needed in order for you to use them as a trade entry
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Historical ratio levels are being seen here but all that means is new records are being set. A big mistake traders make (and I'm one of them), is looking for historical levels as signs of a place for a reversal to happen.
They are reference levels, but much more evidence is needed in order for you to use them as a trade entry
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WOW
Just getting back, and I was actually catching up with an old friend who was telling me that this is just another buy the dip scenario and tha tthe market will recover by the end of the year
Who am I to argue?
So much for holding the lows! Thats why volume is NEVER enough, and without other confirming factors, it's just guessing
Breadth is -3000 and showing no signs of letting up at all here
This is major nastiness, and there will be plenty of talk about fund liquidations and margin calls
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Who am I to argue?
So much for holding the lows! Thats why volume is NEVER enough, and without other confirming factors, it's just guessing
Breadth is -3000 and showing no signs of letting up at all here
This is major nastiness, and there will be plenty of talk about fund liquidations and margin calls
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Volume down here
The volume pattern down here is saying that this is just a test of lows and should not break through too deeply, if at all.
It's not enough to be a buy signal because:
a) Breadth is still horrible
b) There is no price pattern to confirm
volume is just one thing to watch, you need confirmation from other sources.
I'm going to grab lunch, Im assuming the market will still be here when I return!
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It's not enough to be a buy signal because:
a) Breadth is still horrible
b) There is no price pattern to confirm
volume is just one thing to watch, you need confirmation from other sources.
I'm going to grab lunch, Im assuming the market will still be here when I return!
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Same type of volume
We just saw the same type of volume pattern that marked the 1150.75 pullback low
That led to a 17.25 point romp. The same measurement would bring this to 1171.50
The difference here is we did not just spring off the low, we are meandering
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That led to a 17.25 point romp. The same measurement would bring this to 1171.50
The difference here is we did not just spring off the low, we are meandering
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As is usually the case
On a big down day, I will usually start to look for a lunch time low
That doesn't mean it's the low of day, but it can hold at least until after the lunch hour at 1PM
Still a good 20 minutes to lunch, despite the 1-2:30 zone that some morons quote as lunchtime. That idiocy alone proves it was just luck for them.
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That doesn't mean it's the low of day, but it can hold at least until after the lunch hour at 1PM
Still a good 20 minutes to lunch, despite the 1-2:30 zone that some morons quote as lunchtime. That idiocy alone proves it was just luck for them.
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Some good overshoot examples
I was watching 1152 as support, we overshot by 4.5 points. Then, the upside target of the bounce was the opening price, we overshot that by 4 points.
Seems like 4 points give or take are a good reference number at least for today
Using those reference levels, it would make below 1154 a dead end for this 1159 pullback level
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Seems like 4 points give or take are a good reference number at least for today
Using those reference levels, it would make below 1154 a dead end for this 1159 pullback level
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Trying
1159 is trying, but we are continuing to push it lower here, and getting some bleed through
A great question was asked: How much is an actual overshoot, and how much is a failure? In this environment, I would say 5-7 points (basis the S&P Futures not on individual stocks!) is still in overshoot territory, but that's strictly one man's opinion, and in no way a law. This will change as volatility winds itself down, which unless the cycle changes, it will eventually do. 10 days ago, 1.75 points was a max overshoot I would use
See if we get a remount on 1159 and a try at some upside
Breadth is still atrocious, so bounces are swimming upstream for now
As I finish typing this, we are starting to get deeper below 1159
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A great question was asked: How much is an actual overshoot, and how much is a failure? In this environment, I would say 5-7 points (basis the S&P Futures not on individual stocks!) is still in overshoot territory, but that's strictly one man's opinion, and in no way a law. This will change as volatility winds itself down, which unless the cycle changes, it will eventually do. 10 days ago, 1.75 points was a max overshoot I would use
See if we get a remount on 1159 and a try at some upside
Breadth is still atrocious, so bounces are swimming upstream for now
As I finish typing this, we are starting to get deeper below 1159
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Flirting with 1159
We are trying to hold this 1159 number. I dont think if we lose it that the lows are next, but it would definitely break up my model for the time being
remember, not exact numbers, especially in these highly volatile times, overshoot is common
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remember, not exact numbers, especially in these highly volatile times, overshoot is common
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Lows in?
After 1152 failed to hold, the remount has seen some good testing and back filling, and appears to be holding up
We went 20 off the lows, and are now resting. Watching to see if we hold above 1159 and if that leads to continued upside
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We went 20 off the lows, and are now resting. Watching to see if we hold above 1159 and if that leads to continued upside
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1152 A dissapointment!
Waited all night for 1152 to get hit, and all that it was worth was 4 points
Still think there's a chance we can bounce here, but I'm flat
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Still think there's a chance we can bounce here, but I'm flat
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We have some convergence
1152 is a 162% Fibonacci external retracement on two time frames, including today's range
It's just a reference level, there has to be confirmation of support
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It's just a reference level, there has to be confirmation of support
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1152 in play
Watching 1152 as a downside support level
We must confirm that level as support, it's not just a buy and hold your nose!!
Breadth is WICKED!
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We must confirm that level as support, it's not just a buy and hold your nose!!
Breadth is WICKED!
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Bingo
Testing the lows here
Not a full retest yet but it looks like we want at least the overnight lows
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Not a full retest yet but it looks like we want at least the overnight lows
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Trying to carve out a range
We are trying to carve out an AM range here
Still whippy skippy, lower size is the key
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Still whippy skippy, lower size is the key
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Breadth
Once again, breadth is horrific
It will be VERY hard to get a significant lift with this breadth after the first half hour
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It will be VERY hard to get a significant lift with this breadth after the first half hour
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Failure or ripper
We have a failure pattern up here. If it is offset, then we can rip another 10+ to the upside. If not, we can make a test towards the lows, but there are a lot of Fibs to get through
Support levels from the Fibs:
1170.25
1168.25
1165.75 (line in the sand) If we break that we can look for a full retracement to the lows
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Support levels from the Fibs:
1170.25
1168.25
1165.75 (line in the sand) If we break that we can look for a full retracement to the lows
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First 5 minutes
The first 5 minutes are in here, and we had a nice 10 point ripper off the early low
Waiting to see if a pattern sets up here for a fade entry
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Waiting to see if a pattern sets up here for a fade entry
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And here we go
Waiting at least 5 minutes here. Of course, in this market that can be 20 points lol
We held the "late low" from 5:30 AM at 1162.25
Watching 1167.75 as resistance short term
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We held the "late low" from 5:30 AM at 1162.25
Watching 1167.75 as resistance short term
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Levels I am watching
We have a big gap down on our hands. A gap of this size offers a nice fading opportunity.
I like to wait at least 5 minutes before looking for an entry, and I like to have something to "lean against".
I'm watching overnight lows at 1161.50 and then 1152 as a key pivot level.
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I like to wait at least 5 minutes before looking for an entry, and I like to have something to "lean against".
I'm watching overnight lows at 1161.50 and then 1152 as a key pivot level.
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26 point range
The overnight session had a 26 point range so far, and it may try to break the lows before the open.
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Sunday, August 7, 2011
Saturday, August 6, 2011
SPY and 115
The 62% Fibonacci Retracement of the rally up off the July 1st 2010 lows is 114.90. This makes the 115 handle a key and critical number for the SPY on this current move. If we gap down severely from the downgrade of the US this level is one to definitely watch for support should we fall to it.
Again, I don't use levels as absolutes, just as reference areas. If a pattern doesn't set up, I will pass and look for a better entry, bu hey, that's me!
Even if we don't get slammed, it's still a level to watch on the short term if the downside continues.
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Friday, August 5, 2011
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
wow what a move off the lows, 25 S&P points in a few minutes
holy mackeral!
Watching for a pause, and then we should test green again
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holy mackeral!
Watching for a pause, and then we should test green again
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Lows in?
117.93 is now remounted here.
IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF
this can hold, the lows of the day could be in. Im using 117.83 (yes .10 below the previous mentioned number) now as a line in the sand
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IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF
this can hold, the lows of the day could be in. Im using 117.83 (yes .10 below the previous mentioned number) now as a line in the sand
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tis only a scratch!
Only a 1 point bleed through of the 117.93 number LOL
Unreal
Volatility is sick here
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Unreal
Volatility is sick here
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volatility through the roof
We are slicing and dicing through levels like they are nothing, big batches of movement here
For me it means widen stops and reduce size but others have different plans Im sure!
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For me it means widen stops and reduce size but others have different plans Im sure!
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Now I'm wathcing
For a remount of 117.93, a pause that HOLDS it and then a pattern to form there
tiny
tiny
Still no pattern to lean against
Waiting for something to set up here, we are below the level (117.93) I was watching for a possible low
This is ugliness abound!
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This is ugliness abound!
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Not holding!
117.93 did not hold on the SPY, we have no low yet into lunch
WOW extreme selling again here
crash talk out and about once again
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WOW extreme selling again here
crash talk out and about once again
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Tagged!
117.93 has been tagged (with a little bleed through so far)
Big question now is if we keep going or is the low into lunch set
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Big question now is if we keep going or is the low into lunch set
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Not quite
S&P Futures did hit and hold support (so far) at 1179.50, but the SPY has not yet hit the 117.93 level I've been yapping about.
Let's see if it wants to get there today.
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Adn by the time I posted the last one...
We were already hitting the new low
Now let's see how we act
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Now let's see how we act
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Watching for a new low
Watching here for a new low, and seeing if this gets cleaned up if the SPY hits 117.93
I only use exact levels as reference points and then see if we pivot off of them.
Watch how we act there.
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I only use exact levels as reference points and then see if we pivot off of them.
Watch how we act there.
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Do we break the lows?
Market couldn't stay above 1200 for long, and we are 10 points away from the next support level, after the lows of day
Not in a rush to go anywhere apparently, for now we are chopping around, carving out a range
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Not in a rush to go anywhere apparently, for now we are chopping around, carving out a range
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Why I was looking for a bounce
Someone messaged me asking about my "looking for a bounce here" in my post a few back.
We were at the 127% external retracement, and we pushed through the lower Bollinger band to get there.
We wound up only getting a scalp like bounce (about 6 or so points for this type of market), but that was my reasoning, it wasn't gut, dreams or feel.
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I don't know if we get there
I don't know if we get there, but that 117.93 support number, if confirmed could be a nice buying level on the SPY. Once we approach that level, I'll be watching a smaller time frame for a pattern to develop
tiny
tiny
32 points from 1215
I will say that I seriously underestimated the potential move!
Still, both fade targets were achieved
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Still, both fade targets were achieved
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Breadth divergence
We have breadth divergence with yesterday, but we are still at almost -2k
Not the kind of reading that leads to major rallies
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Not the kind of reading that leads to major rallies
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So far.....
We came just under a dollar shy of the SPY target of 117.93
Will they get us there today?
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Will they get us there today?
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And a big one it;s not
We got a few points but it was quickly rejected and we are now back down at new lows, but now that's being rejected as well
High volatility here
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High volatility here
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Below the lows
Below overnight and yesterday's lows here
watching for a bounce right here, but it may not be a big one until we hit the levels mentioned last night
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watching for a bounce right here, but it may not be a big one until we hit the levels mentioned last night
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2nd (final) target almost reached
gap fill would be the final target, and its getting hit right now as I finish typing this
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1215 resistance
1215 was nice resistance and the first target was hit (20 EMA)
Now seeing what kind of bounce we can get.
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Now seeing what kind of bounce we can get.
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Nice size gap up
Nice size gap up to start the session. Let's see if a fade pattern sets up
1215, 1219.50 are first resistance levels to watch
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1215, 1219.50 are first resistance levels to watch
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Thursday, August 4, 2011
The VIX
The last time the VIX was near this level we got a nice bounce. Of course, we were over the 200 day MA, and we were 5 points higher on the SPY, so it is not an apples to apples scenario
tiny
tiny
video you should watch
The Single Most Reliable Indicator
In this video excerpt, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Editor
Steve Hochberg explains one of the most important things to keep in mind when
assessing a market, "Extreme opinions, shared widely, constitute the single
most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for a market." Enjoy
your video excerpt.
To find out more about the Wave Principle, be sure to watch the Club EWI video
series: Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis. This 3-video series
is a great way to get started with the Wave Principle. You can watch these
videos free with a Club EWI Membership.
Watch the Club EWI video series: Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott
Wave Analysis. This 3-video series is a great way to get started with the Wave Principle. You can get these videos free with a Club EWI Membership.
The Dow was down over 500, so now what?
Click here for a free trial
I've been following them for years, and so have my friends.
It's a free trial, but a credit card is required to sign up. Read all the details before signing up sop you know how to cancel if you don't like it! EWI has been around for years,and these guys don't base their business on infomercials and hoping people forget to cancel a service. They are the real deal.
tiny
I've been following them for years, and so have my friends.
It's a free trial, but a credit card is required to sign up. Read all the details before signing up sop you know how to cancel if you don't like it! EWI has been around for years,and these guys don't base their business on infomercials and hoping people forget to cancel a service. They are the real deal.
tiny
SICK volume readings
Down volume was super skewed compared to the upside readings
Complete and utter ugliness!
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Complete and utter ugliness!
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Extreme VIX, Extreme TRIN
Extreme readings on this extreme down day bring us short term oversold
A gap down tomorrow could offer a nice opportunity for a long side TRADE, and nothing more until more evidence was seen
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A gap down tomorrow could offer a nice opportunity for a long side TRADE, and nothing more until more evidence was seen
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We didn't crash....
While we didn't crash this afternoon, the super bears that I read over lunch were correct, at least for today
I give credit where credit is due!
My theory of a bounce into the Job numbers was way wrong, we basically closed at our lows for the NY session.
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I give credit where credit is due!
My theory of a bounce into the Job numbers was way wrong, we basically closed at our lows for the NY session.
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1200
I'm watching to see if we can close back above 1200. What will that mean? ABSOLUTELY nothing, just maybe a psychological trap for Friday.
Some will say "well, we did hold 1200" that kinda nonsense
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Some will say "well, we did hold 1200" that kinda nonsense
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Whites of their eyes time?
Is this enough of a wash out to jump back into the (long side) water?
First, we are now below the 200 day moving averages across the board. Second, this impulse was harsh, so even a correction would likely lead to a continuation pattern and another push lower (at the least) before this is done
The dust will have to settle here and that could take a few days at the least.
tiny
First, we are now below the 200 day moving averages across the board. Second, this impulse was harsh, so even a correction would likely lead to a continuation pattern and another push lower (at the least) before this is done
The dust will have to settle here and that could take a few days at the least.
tiny
TRIN closing over 2
Suggesting a bounce Friday sometime, but who's going to hold overnight after this?
This is super harsh selling
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This is super harsh selling
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Retest of 1200
The underside of 1200 just got tested and rejected
I wouldnt be surprised if we get back above it into the close, but not loking that way now thats for sure
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,
I wouldnt be surprised if we get back above it into the close, but not loking that way now thats for sure
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,
Breadth was the clue the whole day
Just couldn't get its boot off the bull;'s neck even with that nice bounce after the AM low was put in
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Wil they lose 1200 into the close?
1202.50 Support being tested here
Will they bring us below 1200 into the close?
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Will they bring us below 1200 into the close?
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Last hour
Acceleration or short covering?
Im watching around here for a possible bounce in that 3:20-3:40 time zone, but with -2700 breadth, I don't expect it to be much of one
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Im watching around here for a possible bounce in that 3:20-3:40 time zone, but with -2700 breadth, I don't expect it to be much of one
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GOOG
GOOG at the 20 daily moving average here
See if it can hold here, if not, the 200 day at 575.60s would be next
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See if it can hold here, if not, the 200 day at 575.60s would be next
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We are close to a bounce
We are close to a bounce, if not today then maybe Friday, and that bounce will be key to watch. If we don't get a good one with breadth and volume backing it up, it will likely just be a bear flag that can lead us further down
We are below the 200 day moving averages across the board on the indexes, so we are in bearish territory
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We are below the 200 day moving averages across the board on the indexes, so we are in bearish territory
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Internals rule
Always keep your internals front and center, as they look "inside" the market and keep you on the right side, or at least OUT of the wrong side
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I cant believe
I can't believe I passed on the greatest sandwich ever in order to read the nonsense on the interweb
Lots of crash talk going around. Who knows, maybe they are right, but we are a little skewed to one side sentiment wise
I can't get bullish with the A-D line like this, so waiting it out for a better singal
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Lots of crash talk going around. Who knows, maybe they are right, but we are a little skewed to one side sentiment wise
I can't get bullish with the A-D line like this, so waiting it out for a better singal
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Ouch!
Id hate to be one of the ones that follow the super gurus break of the first 5 minute bar high gap entry that's a very well known, well talked about (to death actually) entry. I started teaching that over 10 years ago, and while it can be one entry to use, it should be one of a few, and it's all dependent on the type of gap.
You see, the super gurus love gap downs, but they don't know why. They love them because they can scam more unsuspecting people. The problem they have with gap ups is that many people are still afraid to short, and since most of the super gurus have newbies as victims (once they learn anything they quickly leave for better places) they don't make any money on gap ups because they don't short them, and the super gurus can't brag.
The super gurus are likely getting crushed here, but will never admit it.
Eh, don't feel sorry for them, it's ok, there is another class and super deluxe list to super over hype right around the corner!
tiny
You see, the super gurus love gap downs, but they don't know why. They love them because they can scam more unsuspecting people. The problem they have with gap ups is that many people are still afraid to short, and since most of the super gurus have newbies as victims (once they learn anything they quickly leave for better places) they don't make any money on gap ups because they don't short them, and the super gurus can't brag.
The super gurus are likely getting crushed here, but will never admit it.
Eh, don't feel sorry for them, it's ok, there is another class and super deluxe list to super over hype right around the corner!
tiny
New high in $TICK
New high in $TICK leading to a dip here
Breadth is the issue, unless it gets a serious change, the upside will continue to be limited
Still wondering if there will be convienant news released.
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Breadth is the issue, unless it gets a serious change, the upside will continue to be limited
Still wondering if there will be convienant news released.
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1232
Next resistance is 1232, using the 15 minute EMA now, so it will adjust
That would be a 20 point bounce off the lows!
Breadth is horrific here or else I'd really be thinking that those lows could be it for the day
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That would be a 20 point bounce off the lows!
Breadth is horrific here or else I'd really be thinking that those lows could be it for the day
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reistance tagged
Let's see what we do here, I think we can chop for a lil bit as we see up the afternoon
I have to go to lunch, I haven't eaten in like 4 hours!
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I have to go to lunch, I haven't eaten in like 4 hours!
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I'm going to do an emergency class
How super gurus can be dangerous to your health!
I hope those that drank the kool aid realise that these scum dont walk on water and they abandon you when you need them most.
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I hope those that drank the kool aid realise that these scum dont walk on water and they abandon you when you need them most.
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Ok.....
1212.50 was the bomb!
Now all I have to do is erase all the other support levels I "predicted" like the super gurus do LOL
Well, I was wrong the first several levels down, and so far we have a 7 point bounce, and it's got a long way to go to be a real "low"
Back after lunch. Time for the greatest sandwich ever!
tiny
Now all I have to do is erase all the other support levels I "predicted" like the super gurus do LOL
Well, I was wrong the first several levels down, and so far we have a 7 point bounce, and it's got a long way to go to be a real "low"
Back after lunch. Time for the greatest sandwich ever!
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Looking for the low into lunchtime here
No idea if it's the low for the day, week, year, life, whatever, but just looking for us to chop around a little bit as the morning volatility calms down. This afternoon, things could get wild again.
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What I think
I just received a message asking if I think we just crash from here
What I think doesn't matter.
I'm looking for the Russell to break the lows, and trap any aggressive shorts who haven't jumped in yet.
Then, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a turn, but would need a real good pattern, and would be real aggressive trailing a stop
Russell just broke yesterdays lows here
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What I think doesn't matter.
I'm looking for the Russell to break the lows, and trap any aggressive shorts who haven't jumped in yet.
Then, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a turn, but would need a real good pattern, and would be real aggressive trailing a stop
Russell just broke yesterdays lows here
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The ONLY bright note
The Russell 2000 is holding yesterday's lows
Possible scenario is they break those lows only to reverse and put the low in.
We'll see, as of now, it's a bloodbath. Breadth is nasty
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Possible scenario is they break those lows only to reverse and put the low in.
We'll see, as of now, it's a bloodbath. Breadth is nasty
tiny
Scalpers on the Pivot
S2 pivot coupled with the volume analysis, led to a scalp at best. This pullback attracted some buying let's see if it gets anywhere.
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tiny
volume on this push down
Micro analysis: Volume pattern on this push down suggesting that this may be a fake out move
Looking for a pattern that confirms this, so far no dice!
I'm talking about the last few minutes, not this whole big push today
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Looking for a pattern that confirms this, so far no dice!
I'm talking about the last few minutes, not this whole big push today
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Obviously, it's just a pure guess
It's obviously a pure guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if news hit the tape to try to stop the bleeding here
Maybe after the PPT finishes their donuts and coffee
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Maybe after the PPT finishes their donuts and coffee
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1222.25
If we continue to get shelacked, the next support to watch basis the S&P futures is 1222.25 thats the 127.2% Fibonacci external retracement
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Channel surfing
We just broke a rising channel to the downside here
Selling pressure remains strong, breadth will have to improve to get off the neck of the bulls and give us a chance to at least try for that gap
Target is the lows of day here, if we manage to reverse before then, it could be a good sign
As of now, it's not looking that way
tiny
Selling pressure remains strong, breadth will have to improve to get off the neck of the bulls and give us a chance to at least try for that gap
Target is the lows of day here, if we manage to reverse before then, it could be a good sign
As of now, it's not looking that way
tiny
Super gurus......where are youuuuuuuu????
Super Gurus were calling the lows after yesterday, now nowhere to be found?
Nothing like wiaitng for confirmation I guess!
Reign!
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Nothing like wiaitng for confirmation I guess!
Reign!
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At yesterday's lows
1 tick away, so target is met
Now let's see if we slice and dice through it
whoops, just did!
Now let's see if we slice and dice through it
whoops, just did!
No fade yet
The old school fade entry got yoinked, but volume "suggests" we could have a low in. "Suggests" being the key word!
If this last low gets creamed, Wednesday's lows are likely
Resistance is high of day, and then 1244.75
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If this last low gets creamed, Wednesday's lows are likely
Resistance is high of day, and then 1244.75
tiny
Moidered again!
Another big gfap down here
watching this for a fading opportunity
levels to watch:
1236
yesterday's lows at 1230.25
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watching this for a fading opportunity
levels to watch:
1236
yesterday's lows at 1230.25
tiny
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Carving out a small bottom here?
we could be carving out a small bottom here, we came close to 1236, but didn't quite get there, yet.
I'm watching here to see if we want to dip down again and try to hold 1236, or a retest of yesterday's lows may be in the cards
tiny
I'm watching here to see if we want to dip down again and try to hold 1236, or a retest of yesterday's lows may be in the cards
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Any super guru....
Any super guru that made money when it was easy, lost it back and then supported his lifestyle by robbing his clients should be ashamed of themselves
Love how they would mock technical analysis and now quote it
They are liars til the day they die. If their lips are moving they are lying
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Love how they would mock technical analysis and now quote it
They are liars til the day they die. If their lips are moving they are lying
tiny
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
We have a very good chance for a bounce on Wednesday
It may not be a big one, but if we are weak early, and I'm here, Ill be watching for a long side etnry. I'll only be looking for a scalp to start, and Ill only take the entry if there is a smaller time frame pattern to lran against.
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The ultimate hindsight post!
Gorgeous gap down with a textbook fade, and then the upside push was stuffed and we sold off, finally accelerating into the end of day.
Internals were nasty and confirmed the downside pressure.
We did stop at previous support. Ahhhhhh, coincidence!
videos will be up shortly
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Internals were nasty and confirmed the downside pressure.
We did stop at previous support. Ahhhhhh, coincidence!
videos will be up shortly
tiny
Monday, August 1, 2011
Fell a few ticks shy of resistance
Ok, Ive been off by a few ticks today, so I just smacked my PC, that should fix things!
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Stalling
Is this it for the upside off the lows, or just a pause?
Im getting mixed readings here and Id love to post a chart but I crashed all my charting programs on this PC! Super!
We now have a bearish divergence here so lets see how big of a pullback happens
1278.75 is very short term support, then 1276.25
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Im getting mixed readings here and Id love to post a chart but I crashed all my charting programs on this PC! Super!
We now have a bearish divergence here so lets see how big of a pullback happens
1278.75 is very short term support, then 1276.25
tiny
Non market related: My life would have been so much easier if I read this article a few years ago
http://lifehacker.com/5825982/how-to-deal-with-a-crazy-boss
ABC up
We have just completed another ABC up here, but so far, there has been no pull in of any consequence
let's see if we get a pull in and if the bulls step up or the sellers step in
if the lows are in, we will not get a full restest down
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let's see if we get a pull in and if the bulls step up or the sellers step in
if the lows are in, we will not get a full restest down
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Lows for the day in?
Maybe, but Id like to see a change in breadth for the better and some volume kicking in on any upside
If the lows are in, there should be some opportunities on the way up
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If the lows are in, there should be some opportunities on the way up
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There it is!
1274.25 Target hit and so far we are not holding there we are continuing lower
Let's see if we stabalize, otherwise a new leg could start which may be ugly!
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Let's see if we stabalize, otherwise a new leg could start which may be ugly!
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