S&P video for Tuesday, March 1st 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/vd9k7ht

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me here: www.twitter.com/tinyreal and here: www.stocktwits.com/tiny

S&P video for Monday, February 28th, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/jjmrf2b

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal www.stocktwits.com/tiny

RVBD

60 minute chart shows a dynamite triangle right under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Wait for confirmation for entry. If it clears the 78.6%, look for a retest of highs at a mnimum.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal and www.stocktwits.com/tiny

OXY

Nice looking bull flag in a solid uptrend. MACD also looking to kick up. Wait for confirmation as always!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal and www.stocktwits.com/tiny

Four reasons why your trading sucks right now

Has your trading been suffering as of late?  I can certainly empathize, as in the decade and a half I have been trading, I’ve experienced horrible slumps that ate away at my confidence and turned me into a complete DITH (Deer in the headlights).  I was scared to pull the trigger for fear of being wrong yet again, as I watched my account move lower and lower, until finally I shoved it all in on a coin flip at what the market was going to do.

 

Yes, I’m that rare breed of egomaniac that actually admits he has blown up accounts.  And, yes that’s plural.  I wish I could sit here and say I was perfect right from the start, and turned a molehill into a mountain, but it just isn’t the case.  I didn’t start making money until I realized what I was doing wrong.      

 

Oh and guess what?  It's not the market.  I love when I hear people saying this isn't the type of market that you want to trade in.  With the exception of pre or post holiday trading where volume is anemic, the market is tradeable most of the time.

 

Here are four reasons why your trading might just completely suck right now.

1) You are fighting the trend

If you are a follower of my blog and/or videos, you know that I have been watching for a correction to kick in for some time now.  Yet after the big down move on this past Tuesday, why wasn't I super bearish and ready to get short?  It's been said so many times that most people are just desensitized to it, but the trend truly is your friend. The current trend is an up one, and pullbacks need to be looked at as buying opportunities, not an automatic change of trend.  If there's one thing I can look at that has cost me the most money over the years, it's been trying to short the market because it has gone up “enough”, or bought because a stock has gone down “too far”. As chained to the PC hyper-anxious traders, we tend to jump in on the first blip in the direction we are leaning, only to be punished when the dominant trend resumes. It definitely takes more patience to wait out a correction, but as the saying goes, “I'd rather be bored than broke”. Keep in mind that you have to adjust your trend relativity to the time interval you are trading.  A market can be in a screaming uptrend, but even a one day correction is a downtrend on the small time frames.  

2) You are trading above your bankroll

Intense leverage has given many would be traders false hopes of using a few hundred dollars to build a multi-million dollar business. Many people point to FOREX and options as the leading cause for these delusions, but day trading margins on index futures can be had for as low as $250, and that can send an otherwise cautious trader into pure gambling mode, especially when they are playing catch up (see below).  It's tough when you don't have a giant portfolio, but it's so important to keep position sizing at the forefront of your trading plan.    

3) You are trying to make up for lost time

You may have found yourself in a hole early on in the year, or you felt you didn't do as good as you should have, and you are now trying to make up for lost time by playing catch up. You may be over-trading, over-sizing (see above) or losing your patience for the good setups while taking the marginal ones.  Take a breath, and realize that this isn't a business of catch up, but rather one of moving forward in the here and now.    

4) You are over using indicators

It's easy to use stochastics, RSI, the MACD and a host of other technical indicators as a crutch for your own analysis. If you are just starting out with charts, there is so sin in using indicators to help you trade, but you should move to relying on them less and less as your trading progresses. The problem is that these indicators are all based on either price and/or volume so going right to the source and using those alone will help you see the market much clearer than relying on formulas that used past date, and therefore, lag. At the very least, use volume based indicators instead of price based ones.  

Pardon the negative tone of the post, but don't be discouraged if you recognize any of these traits in your trading.  They are all fixable with some focus and a few tweeks to your daily routine.

Feel free to contact me with any questions.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me here and here

Watching this gap up for a fade

I'm going to be watching this gap up for a potential fade. I'm going to give the market at least 5 minutes, if not more, and see if there is a setup to trade against.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Is this a short term wiggle or the start of something bigger?

I touched on this in my video for today, so I’m just circling back here with a more detailed opinion.

I do not believe we have started a bigger correction. For now, I believe we are just seeing a pullback in an uptrend, and I will be looking for us to resume the move higher, at the least until we hit the 1382 level, basis the S&P 500 cash index. That being said, if we do start a bounce, I will be measuring that bounce based on volume and breadth/leadership and will be marking off Fibonacci levels as well as high volume nodes for places that resistance may come in. If resistance does hold, then I will be looking to get on board the short side for a trade.

In case you are new to the blog, I have been looking for a correction for some time now. The best we have gotten has been a day or two of lower prices, and maybe a week of consolidation, but not much more than that. Until we start to see something greater than a blip, there is no reason to try and guess at when the trend will stop and reverse. Remember, one of the principles of price action is that a trend has a greater likelihood of continuing than reversing.

If you have any questions, or if you need any assistance, feel free to contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com.

Michael tiny Saul

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

S&P video for Friday, February 25th 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/axtkynm

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

CNX

Weekly cup with handle and a daily bull flag to boot!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

S&P video for Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/sgm9qeg

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me!  www.twitter.com/tinyreal 

 

 

 

 

S&P video for Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/j6e7uwa

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.77

Next support on the SPY via the daily 20 EMA

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P Video for Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/yevpbmd

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Bull flag- 250 target if confirned

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

The wall of worry

There is an old but tested and true saying that the market "climbs a wall of worry". if that is indeed to be the case again, it's time to get out our window washing rig.

The unrest in the Middle East is growing by the hour, not to mention new China concerns and for good measure some issues in the Korea(s).

Each and every pullback since the August 2010 "right shoulder" has been a buying opportunity that has led to a nice size advance. Until we see a solid reversal pattern (not just a one day wonder) we have to conclude that the Bulls are in charge.

For those that have been watching my videos for the past several months, you are aware that I have been awaiting a correction. I was labeled a perma-Bear by some, despite the fact that I qualified the correction call by saying I don't know if it will just be a pause or something greater in depth. as of now, despite the Geo-political issues, I believe that any pullback will be short lived and offer a buying opportunity until we test 1382 on the S&P 500. From there, a larger correction may ensue, but once again, it will have to be observed as (or if) it actually unfolds.

All this is subject to change of course if the wall actually proves too much to mount, but as of now, there is no evidence supporting that opinion.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

IOC

Above the key moving averages? Check. Nice looking coil? Check. Confirmation? Not yet. Wait for it!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

GWW

Forming a triangle. Check out the low ADX. This is coming down to a point of equilibrium. From there, we can watch for a breakout move.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P video for Friday, Feb 18th, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/83ibmna

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

S&P Video for Thursday, 2/17/11

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/t5omtsk

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow Me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

R.I.P. Uncle Leo

RIC

Cheapie with light volume. Nice looking pattern. First target above $5 would be 5.23.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

wwww.twitter.com/tinyreal

S&P video for Tuesday, February 15th 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/xwcqjim

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Market Video for February 14th 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/au5w9pb

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

TZOO

Stealth bear flag (the stock is still above the 200 day MA). First target is $40. Friday's candle suggests that directional movement is coming. Wait for confirmation in the direction you are looking to trade it.

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Ready for twenty?

AA looking ready for a try at a breakout higher. $20 would be the first target.

Michael tiny Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com

Follow me! www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Oversold in an uptrend

A hammer at the 200 day to boot

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

166 Target if confirmed

FSLR Bull flag

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Market video for February 10th, 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/xogmqok

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

www.twitter.com/tinyreal

S&P Video for Wednesday, February 9th 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/oo64two

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

CLH

Inside day on Tuesday. Will the wind up lead to a try for 100?

WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com
www.twitter.com/tinyreal

Market video for Tuesday, February 8th

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/at4yvsk

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

AMZN Stealth Bear flag

166.90 would be the first target

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Russell 2000

The $RUT gets in gear and hits a new high to join the SPX and NDX

Work done or will this be the start of a new leg higher?

Michal tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Market video for Monday, February 7th 2011

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/rkjowgx

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Super Bowl prediction results

Steelers +3 point; 5 units Loss
Steelers +115 money line; 5 units Loss
Over 45; 2 units Win
ALTERNATIVE POINT SPREAD: Steelers – 3 1/2 and +180; 4 units Loss
Last scoring play of 1st half is a fg or safety -110; 3 units Loss
Either team will NOT score 3 times unanswered -120; 3 units Win
Last scoring play of the game Field Goal +160; 3 units Win
Steelers first scoring play of the game defensive or special teams touchdown +1000; 1/2 unit. Loss

I am consistently horrible in this! If you faded my picks, you are a happy person right now ;)

Congrats to the Packers. They deserve every bit of the praise they will receive. In my opinion, this is only the first for Aaron Rodgers. He is just fantastic.

Michal tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Random thoughts on the sports world

I still think the Steelers win outright. I’m still not wagering on the game.

No offense to any Steelers fans, but you can tell that the networks wanted the Jets to make it, as the spin of Ryan et al would be more exciting than talking about Big Ben and his suspension.

Congrats to the class of 2011 HOF, but really, no Cris Carter?

Michael Vick won comeback player of the year. Duh!

Cavs lose 24 in a row. Brutal.

Phil Simms is pissed that Desmond Howard had something to say about his son. If his son owned a pizzeria and Howard said his food sucked, Simms could be pissed. In this case however, he’s fair game and under a national spotlight. Oh yeah, and Howard’s opinion is hard to argue with.

I was sad to see Ryan Bader lose. He is one of my favorite “up and comers” in the UFC, but he’s not done yet.

Can the BS now stop about Anderson Silva not being “exciting” enough? What a finish. I never bought the whole “he should make it more exciting for the fans” nonsense either. His job is to win, period. The entertainment is the ring girls and the announcer. Silva is risking his health being inside the Octagon with people that are trying to knock him out at a minimum. His job is to win while protecting himself. This isn’t ping pong.

The experts on Fox (and everywhere else it seems) picked the Packers, solidifying my opinion that the Steelers will win outright.

ESPN is running a 30 30 Marathon. I love that series

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Super Bowl 45 Predictions

Ok, it’s time for my Super Bowl predictions! Based on last year’s predictions and my current run with the playoffs, everyone is waiting for me to reveal my plays so they can run to their favorite sports book and……..fade me! Yes, I stink at this, but I’m still giving it the good ole tiny try.

I believe that the Steelers will win. Here is my reasoning:

Roethlisberger is a 2 time Super Bowl champion and one of the best QBs in the game despite his off field antics. He is a proven winner. I do think that by the time Aaron Rodgers’s career is over (barring an unforeseen injury that takes him out early) he will be known as one of the best QBs in the history of the sport. That being said, for this game here and now I give the edge to the Steelers.

Dick LeBeau is the best defensive coordinator in the league and has 2 weeks to prepare. Capers is nothing short of great himself, but the edge goes to the Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is in my opinion, the better coach.

Here are my predictions and money management. By the way, this is for information purposes only, and I won’t be wagering anything on this game.

Steelers +3 point; 5 units
Steelers +115 money line; 5 units
Over 45; 2 units
ALTERNATIVE POINT SPREAD: Steelers – 3 1/2 and +180; 4 units
Last scoring play of the first half is a field goal or safety -110; 3 units
Either team will NOT score 3 times unanswered -120; 3 units
Last scoring play of the game Field Goal +160; 3 units
Steelers first scoring play of the game defensive or special teams touchdown +1000; 1/2 unit.

Good Luck!

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P video for February 4th, 2011, Job Situation 8:30 AM Eastern

http://chart.ly/hrq88bh

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Time for a retracement?

"Indecision" candle at new highs. Can play it by going long DUG

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

GS

Tangled in a web of moving averages. A Doji formed in Wednesday's trade. Time for a retest of recent lows?

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P video for Thursday, February 3rd

http://chart.ly/i5cmtgv

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

Happy Groundhog day! S&P video for Wednesday, February 2nd

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/tpiii4s

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com

S&P 500 video for Tuesday, February 1st

Can be found here: http://chart.ly/uqs63hk

Michael tiny Saul

tinymjs at gmail dot com