GS getting oversold in an uptrend. Watch the 200 day MA for support.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
One to watch
GS getting oversold in an uptrend. Watch the 200 day MA for support.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Monday, November 29, 2010
RIMM
Nice consolidaiton here right on the 200 day moving average. We should see expansion from here. Which direction? Exactly!
Michael "tiny" Saul
tinymjs at gmail dot com
SPY
We are seeing a retest of the 50 day moving average here, as we expected last week, BEFORE the aggressive trap breakout we saw.
Now we can see if the Bulls are ready to make a stand and defend support, and get a real breakout to the upside. If not, 117.25 is the next level of support to watch.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Friday, November 26, 2010
Choppy light volume down day
So far, we are not seeing much in today's half session. As I said on Wednesday, we are in wait and see mode until Monday.
Have a great weekend. I will throw some charts up Saturday and Sunday for your perusal.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Have a great weekend. I will throw some charts up Saturday and Sunday for your perusal.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving 2010 to everyone!
I have many things to be thankful for, including re-connecting with many friends, some who I haven't spoken with for many years. Welcome back!
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
I have many things to be thankful for, including re-connecting with many friends, some who I haven't spoken with for many years. Welcome back!
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
January Effects Class
I will be holding a January Effects class shortly.
The cost will be...FREE, but registration will be required.
Stay tuned for more information on when this class will take place.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
The cost will be...FREE, but registration will be required.
Stay tuned for more information on when this class will take place.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Breakout?
We had a light volume break from the consolidation I showed yesterday here. It was pre-holiday volume, so we remain in wait and se mode for the time being.
Friday is a half session, but next week we start a very interesting time area into the Christmas holiday that usually has some good trading volatility, so let's get ready!
tiny
tinymjs a gmail dot com
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
The SPY and the 50 day moving average
The SPY has the 50-day moving average just below Tuesday's lows, and that is still being watched for support.
The overall pattern looks like a consolidation, and if we hold the support, the break could lead to another leg higher. If we don;t hold support, a deeper pullback will likely be taking hold.
We are in wait and see for now, as volume should be light Wednesday and for the half day Friday session.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Doji at support
ZION formed a doji at a key support point. We can now watch for a bounce to the overhead moving averages, or a break through and a retest of the late August, followed by the yearly lows.
This stock does not trade with much volatility, so keep that in mind when placing trades on it.
tiny
SNDK
SNDK is surfing a channel that is divided by it's 200 day moving average.
Watch for resolution out of this pattern, as a break either way could lead to a directional move.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Strong
The market is strong today, and is now headed for a retest of the broken trendline, which is the next resistance level to watch.
Breadth is strong, while volume could be better.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Nice size gap up
Nice size gap up to start today's session
119.65 is short term resistance on the SPY
tiny
119.65 is short term resistance on the SPY
tiny
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Low volume doji day
After Tuesday's expansion day, the market formed a light volume inside doji day in Wednesday's session. This is a pause day.
The move down does not look complete to me. We should at the least test the 50 day moving average. The 120 minute chart shows a bear flag pattern. We could fall right from here or bounce a bit more to complete a small A-B-C pattern.
Unless the chart morphs into something different, the downside appears to be the way we will be headed on the short term.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Awesome!
He's 25 now, he was 22 at the time he "earned" the medal. When I was 22, I was thinking how much the world owed me, and was as selfish as a person could be. I cannot even imagine the amount of bravery and selflessness it takes to be a man of this caliber.
Sal Giunta is beyond awesome, a true role model and a real super hero.
http://www.gnn.com/article/obama-bestows-medal-of-honor-on-staff/1402211?ncid=webmail
Good relative strength
GS is showing good relative strength today against the overall weakness in the broad market.
This should be watched as a potential leader if we: a) get a bounce later today or b) get a bounce Wednesday.
tiny
The good ole Buck
The Dollar has hit it's first target, the 50 day moving average on the daily chart. Whether this is a "major bottom" as many are proclaiming, or just a dead rat bounce remains to be seen. In my very humble opinion, more evidence is needed before stepping out on such a strong call.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Expansion!
As expected, we are seeing expansion after the low volume inside day that printed yesterday.
More importantly, we broke through the multi-week trendline and now look like we are headed back to the 50 day moving average. This will be a key test level for the Bulls.
tiny
Monday, November 15, 2010
Low volume inside day
A low volume inside day formed in Monday's session.
It's time to watch for for range expansion here, in either direction, so don't get biased!
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
Sunday, November 14, 2010
An article from Paul Schatz
Paul is a top notch analyst, money manager and friend. All opinions expressed in his articles are his, and do not reflect any recommendations to buy or sell securities, options, currencies, futures or any other financial instrument not specifically mentioned.
If It's Obvious... It's Obviously Wrong
In my Special Election Update, I discussed the three big events for the markets last week, the election, Fed announcement and jobs report. The market's reaction to the election could not have been more expected. As I mentioned, a Republican takeover of the House with at least 60 seats and headway in the Senate was fully baked in the cake. That's why stocks did almost nothing the next day.
Bernanke & Company also gave the markets exactly what they were looking for with another round of quantitative easing to the tune of $600B (whether that’s good medicine is a topic for a different piece). Say what you want about this Fed, but they have done an excellent job of telegraphing their moves well in advance and making sure not to disappoint the markets. In typical Fed day fashion, stocks were quiet in the morning and saw a brief surge in volatility before modestly rallying into the close.
The surprise of the week came on "no news" Thursday when most of the major markets surged higher with the Dow, S&P 500, S&P Mid Cap, Nasdaq and Dow Transports all scoring breakouts to new 2010 highs. Only the lonely Russell 2000 index of small caps remains below its April high.
Since mid October, I've been concerned that the rally from where we committed so much money at the July bottom was getting a bit ahead of itself. Not so much where we would pull the ripcord, but enough that should warrant a short-term pullback to digest those gains. With so many bears becoming bulls, a surge in call buying by option traders and sentiment surveys showing a bit too much excitement, taking some chips off the table seemed like a good plan.
So far, the market hasn't cared. After last week's price action and heavy news flow, it's pretty hard to find many folks negative on the stock market with most of the major indices at new 2010 highs and the Fed committed to pumping another $600B into the markets. If their first round of QE with $1.25T was any indication, the old adage of "don't fight the Fed" should be wise to follow.
But the skeptic in me still worries. It's getting too easy. No one is worried anymore. Just buy stocks, commodities and high yield bonds. Sell the dollar and treasuries. It's a layup! History (and Joe Granville) has taught me when it's obvious... it's obviously wrong.
That's why I started pounding the table to buy the dollar last week. There are NO bulls left. Everyone is bullish on the Euro and bearish the greenback. That's the exact opposite of what we saw in late May when I offered on CNBC that the Euro was so bad, it was actually good. You had to just hold your nose, close your eyes and buy it.
Everyone seems to be embracing this new world financial order. Quantitative easing is supposed to help the economy by flooding the system with more and more money, which in turn lowers interest rates and helps banks, corporations and consumers.
I don't know about you, but besides helping fuel the financial markets, I don't see the positive economic effects that QE is intended. Money in the system isn't the problem. Banks have more than a trillion dollars sitting at the Fed earning peanuts, while corporations are also sitting on more than a trillion in cash, unwilling to spend and invest.
Summing it all up, although the major stock indices, sectors and high yield bonds have all broken out to new 2010 highs and everyone is partying like it's 1999, I am not willing to imbibe any more beverages. We have plenty on the table, but less than the maximum we had during July, August, September and half of October.
The most bullish thing stocks could do right now would be a sideways digestion for at least a week to wind up for another move higher. I think it would be constructive to see an orderly pullback of 2-4%. Much more than that would indicate that the recent breakout was false and sharply lower prices could ensue. As I mentioned last week, I would be very surprised to see stock breakout and explode higher without a pause. I think that would be dangerous and perhaps even a terminal move.
Feel free to email me with any questions or comments at Paul@investfortomorrow.com.
Until next time…
Paul Schatz
Heritage Capital LLC
http://www.InvestForTomorrow.com
http://RetirementPlanningConnecticut.com/
If It's Obvious... It's Obviously Wrong
In my Special Election Update, I discussed the three big events for the markets last week, the election, Fed announcement and jobs report. The market's reaction to the election could not have been more expected. As I mentioned, a Republican takeover of the House with at least 60 seats and headway in the Senate was fully baked in the cake. That's why stocks did almost nothing the next day.
Bernanke & Company also gave the markets exactly what they were looking for with another round of quantitative easing to the tune of $600B (whether that’s good medicine is a topic for a different piece). Say what you want about this Fed, but they have done an excellent job of telegraphing their moves well in advance and making sure not to disappoint the markets. In typical Fed day fashion, stocks were quiet in the morning and saw a brief surge in volatility before modestly rallying into the close.
The surprise of the week came on "no news" Thursday when most of the major markets surged higher with the Dow, S&P 500, S&P Mid Cap, Nasdaq and Dow Transports all scoring breakouts to new 2010 highs. Only the lonely Russell 2000 index of small caps remains below its April high.
Since mid October, I've been concerned that the rally from where we committed so much money at the July bottom was getting a bit ahead of itself. Not so much where we would pull the ripcord, but enough that should warrant a short-term pullback to digest those gains. With so many bears becoming bulls, a surge in call buying by option traders and sentiment surveys showing a bit too much excitement, taking some chips off the table seemed like a good plan.
So far, the market hasn't cared. After last week's price action and heavy news flow, it's pretty hard to find many folks negative on the stock market with most of the major indices at new 2010 highs and the Fed committed to pumping another $600B into the markets. If their first round of QE with $1.25T was any indication, the old adage of "don't fight the Fed" should be wise to follow.
But the skeptic in me still worries. It's getting too easy. No one is worried anymore. Just buy stocks, commodities and high yield bonds. Sell the dollar and treasuries. It's a layup! History (and Joe Granville) has taught me when it's obvious... it's obviously wrong.
That's why I started pounding the table to buy the dollar last week. There are NO bulls left. Everyone is bullish on the Euro and bearish the greenback. That's the exact opposite of what we saw in late May when I offered on CNBC that the Euro was so bad, it was actually good. You had to just hold your nose, close your eyes and buy it.
Everyone seems to be embracing this new world financial order. Quantitative easing is supposed to help the economy by flooding the system with more and more money, which in turn lowers interest rates and helps banks, corporations and consumers.
I don't know about you, but besides helping fuel the financial markets, I don't see the positive economic effects that QE is intended. Money in the system isn't the problem. Banks have more than a trillion dollars sitting at the Fed earning peanuts, while corporations are also sitting on more than a trillion in cash, unwilling to spend and invest.
Summing it all up, although the major stock indices, sectors and high yield bonds have all broken out to new 2010 highs and everyone is partying like it's 1999, I am not willing to imbibe any more beverages. We have plenty on the table, but less than the maximum we had during July, August, September and half of October.
The most bullish thing stocks could do right now would be a sideways digestion for at least a week to wind up for another move higher. I think it would be constructive to see an orderly pullback of 2-4%. Much more than that would indicate that the recent breakout was false and sharply lower prices could ensue. As I mentioned last week, I would be very surprised to see stock breakout and explode higher without a pause. I think that would be dangerous and perhaps even a terminal move.
Feel free to email me with any questions or comments at Paul@investfortomorrow.com.
Until next time…
Paul Schatz
Heritage Capital LLC
http://www.InvestForTomorrow.com
http://RetirementPlanningConnecticut.com/
Test of the trendline
The SPY ended last week with a test of a multi-week up trend line. Further weakness to start the week should be watched carefully, as a break below the trendline may lead to a deeper plunge and retest of the 50 day moving average before a bounce ensues.
I'm still not a bear, but we are at a short term decision area, and need to pay attention here.
tiny
tinymjs at gmail dot com
A fresh start
Welcome to my new blog! Please send me your comments, suggestions and of course criticisms
Thanks and I look forward to hearing from you and posting my view on the market to everyone!
This is my one and only blog.
Michael "tiny" Saul
Contact info: tinymjs at gmail dot com
Thanks and I look forward to hearing from you and posting my view on the market to everyone!
This is my one and only blog.
Michael "tiny" Saul
Contact info: tinymjs at gmail dot com
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