Wednesday, August 31, 2011

S&P 500 video for Thrusday, September 1st, 2011

Prop firms

Thankfully, the CBSX and the SEC stepped in, and made it mandatory for those scam artist backed prop firms to require licenses for all traders.

That's another nice scam down the drain for these scumbags. Thankfully

If anyone offers you the opportunity to trade at one of these firms, ask them what their cut is. They will likely lie or avoid the question. They'll blame the hurricane (even if they are in the midwest), someone being sick, or some other made up story in order to avoid the truth.

DONT BELIVE THE HYPE

If the firm is legitimate, they wil inform you that you must be licensed and they will tell you the proper procedure for getting your license.

tiny

Taking some time

I'm taking some time off to spend with my family before my two oldest go back to school and the summer ends.

Ill try to throw something up on the blog every day so the hag can earn her 50k a year for spying.

I'll probably do the SPY video, but the Stock Market Watch List videos will be paused until the day after Labor Day.

Have a great holiday.

tiny

Measured move hit

The measured move we've been watching for the past few days has been hit plus a little bonus for good measure


From here, we can either chop it out into the Friday or start a pullback, but I tihnk the former is more likely.

tiny

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

S&P video for Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Premature bears

Starting to see some short term traders shifting gears back to the downside here.

It may be a bit premature, but we'll see soon enough. I think we get at least to the measured move that I've been talking about, if not the 50 day moving average before we get a decent pullback.

tiny

Now we'll see

Now we'll see if we can get a wind up and move through

tiny

Bond close

Trying to break higher here, but TICK is diverging, which suggests it wont get through this time

Breadth could be better here but near the highs and trying

tiny

Trying to push higher

Breadth getting better, but still less than +200 as I type this. Will it be enough to get us to fresh highs on the session?

Watch for failure up here for a possible short sale opportunity if there is no confirmation of a break.

tiny

Another "easy" fade goes down the drain

Please stop listening to the super gurus and their henchmen. They make opening fades out to be easy as cherry pie, and 100% winners. They are NEITHER.

Trading isn't easy. If it was, NO ONE would make money. Don't let these con artists hoodwink you into thinking that they care about you. They want your money, and will do whatever it takes to pick your pockets, all while screaching "we help people!"

The sheep get slaughtered another day. Seek higher ground, grab an education, and formulate your own day to day trading plan. It's fine to look for information but make your own decisions!

tiny

Chopping away

A nice choppy day as the market rests, at least for now.

Breadth is neutral, no tip of the hand either way.

Let's see if something sets up after lunch.

tiny

Monday, August 29, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

The following is political in nature

I apologize in advance for bringing politics to this blog. I'll likely lose followers because of this post, but so be it.

10 years ago my country was attacked by a bunch of cowards. They slammed airplanes into buildings and changed many people's lives forever.

My President at the time was George W. Bush. After he sent our soldiers into Afghanistan his approval rating went through the roof. The same people that later criticized him were praising him and one liar I know in particular was telling me how he hoped that Bush "bombed the living sh** out of them", and then later he went to sing "nah nah" at him when President Obama was inaugurated.

My favorite twist was when people like Michael Moore and his alleged movie pinpointed when Bush was told the news that we were attacked and didn't jump up and run out of the classroom, but instead sat their in shock, composed himself and then left without scaring the crap out of the kids he was in the classroom with. How dare he not get up and start going crazy!

President Bush vowed to never let these scumbags attack us again on our homeground. At the time, a friend who's not a friend anymore (and I dont know why) said we would never catch Osama Bin Coward, and that Bush would eventually go down as one of the greatest Presidents we have ever had. he was wrong on the first part, and the second remains to be seen.

If anyone hasn't seen the special that National Geographic is airing this week, they should. Even the strongest Bush hater would have to respect the man after watching the interview with him, or they have no patriotism, and no comprehension of how difficult the situation that he faced actually was.

I know there are many that blame Bush for the current economic crisis, but no one was blaming him when they were making a million dollars a month, or exploiting the common folks with their get rich quick and easy schemes because money was flowing like water. I guess it was ok then, huh?

I would say they ought to be ashamed, but they have no shame left in them.

If you think I'm going to end my rant with a bash of President Obama, think again. I'll lose more followers because of this, but I don't really care. President Obama got Bin Laden. Yes, Bush started the hunt, but Obama got him. I know the stories about who really gave the order and he did this to deflect the job he's doing or whatever, blah blah blah.

I'll worry about the economy and pointing fingers another week. For this week, it's time to give some credit where credit is due.

tiny

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

Surveying the damage

I just got back and ready to actually take a nap here. I was up at 6AM and went to help some friends out who got whacked by the storm.

It's ironic that the people I helped get ready for the hurricane didn't need it, as they, like me managed to avoid any issues, but others just got slammed.

Anyway, from what I have heard the super gurus gap fading following sheep got yoinked as there was no fade today (even though GOOG fired off and is ugly underwater..... ouch!) and as of now it looks like we are in chop mode. Breadth is very strong, and volume is on a light pace, as expected.

That's probably it for me today, but I'll be back tonight with the videos.

tiny

Sunday, August 28, 2011

POT analysis for a reader


Here's some POT analysis for a reader of my blog.

Friday was a nice day for POT, as the stock gained 4.65% and busted through the key moving averages, which are stacked quite nicely. Volume was good, as it managed to turnover greater than it's 50 day average, but was not great, as we saw better volume just a few sessions ago.

Resistance is just above at the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing down, followed by the 78.6% retracement at 59.60s. Support sits at the 50% mark of Friday's big green candle, and the moving averages that were just freshly broken.

After expansion days, I like to watch for consoldiation, at least in the AM, so watch for moves BOTH ways for potential fading opportunities until a consodlaiton pattenr forms.

tiny

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Stock market Trading Watch List For Monday, August 29th, 2011

Anderson Silva: can anyone beat him?

Looks like they are going to have to do something to get him and St Pierre in the ring, or else its gonna get dull in those divisions very soon

tiny

Some great news!

I got some great news today. Someone wrote me and told me they were all set to go to a super deluxe seminar with their buddy in September, but they did a little due diligence and canceled.

If I save one person (in this case 2) by ranting the way I do, then I've done my job and it's all worth it.

{big smile}

By the way, I wasn't told what seminar they canceled, but there are no shortages of scamathons available!

tiny

They just declared my town a disaster area!

Awesome! It is raining bulls and bears though, but hey no drought issues i guess.

tiny

S&P 500 video for Monday, August 29th, 2011

1-3 weeks?

Wow, I just read that the electric copany is warning people that they are expecting serious outages due to Hurricane Irene, and that the expected downtime could be 1-3 weeks!

Are they just being overly cautious, or could this really be the case?

Time to do the videos I guess.

If you don't hear from me for a bit, have a good month or so trading!

tiny

Friday, August 26, 2011

Euro

The Euro is trying to break the weekly coil into end of week, but it's not going to be easy

Next week should be telling as to whether it wants to break or stay nice and cozy in it's range.

tiny

AAPL

Beautiful breakout of the mini coil talked about in the video last night, and sent out to the e-mail list.

Not on the email list yet? Details coming soon, and I scrub the list for hags, so don't even try it 3-seater!

tiny

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Friday, August 26th, 2011

S&P video for Friday, August 25th, 2011

AAPL Channel


Nice channel formed on AAPL intra-day Thursday

tiny

Here we go

Trying to getthat gap fill here on AAPL

Will it make it there?

tiny

Watching AAPL here

I just got back, I've been out all day helping a partner of mine get some of his properties ready for the storm that's coming. I think hes being over cautious, but hey, what can ya do?

I missed the sweetheart fade, and I'm on about 2 hours sleep, but never the less I'm watching to see if AAPL can get green

Hope you had a good fade if you grabbed it.

tiny

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

S&P futs went green

NASDAQ Futures also on da bounce

Still a long way until the open

tiny

S&P 500 Video For Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Could be a sweetheart fading opp Thursday

Steve Jobs resigned, AAPL is cracked after hours. this could offer a juicy opportunity for a fade. These are the kinds of over emotional moves that you should be watching for on gaps.

More on this tonight in the video


tiny

Following the model

Early two way action is following the model for the day, but weakness is starting to come in here a bit as breadth has moved down to -600s.

Let's see what happens when lunch ends at 1 (contrary to the super guru's beliefs that lunch starts at 1, ahh the idiocy never ends)

tiny

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

RIMM


Nice looking coil. Let's see if it can get in that gap.

tiny

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Well lookey here...

On Tuesday we started the bounce that I've been waiting on for the last few days. Of course, it came just as I faded on the theory that a bounce was coming, but hey, at least I didn't get ultra uber bearish like the super gurus, who will now just deny it and erase their opinions from public view, or give the good ole "I thought this could happen" excuse. They surely didn't "think it could happen" Monday when they were screaming bloody murder and that the sky was falling (so to speak). It's actually quite comical how they poach from other services and gurus, while thinking no one knows where they got their ideas from. Ah well, a scoundrel is as a scoundrel does.

I don't feel "the low" is in, but once again, we could have "a low" here as this test down had shown an inter-market divergence. The NASADQ 100 ($NDX) and Russell 2000 ($RUT), which are considered leading indexes did get a test of lows, while the Dow and S&P 500 had higher lows put in. Usually this means that the "work is not done". This doesn't mean we can't bounce here for a little bit, as we continue to fill out the corrective pattern that started a few weeks back. The $NDX and $RUT did LEAD on Tuesday's bounce, which is a good sign on the short term.

My opinion remains the same: Ultra-short term bullish, longer term bearish. I think we have lower to go, and believe we will go lower after we finish up whatever pattern we are forming here.

tiny


S&P 500 Video for Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Monday, August 22, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watchlist for Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

Gold trading over 1900

Gold has become parabolic here, and is due for a correction. Stepping in front of this freight train is not a prudent business plan, but watching for a reversal candle and a momentum divergence could set up a nice trade.

It may or may not get to $2000, but its stretched enough here to start watching for a signal. Stay patient, but alert, as an opportunity for a quick move to the downside could come sooner than later.

tiny

S&P 500 Video for Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Missing the open!

Another late night in Joisey, so I'm sleeping in. I'll catch up about mid morning.

Trade well

tiny

Analysis of the Euro

Hopefully the super guru scam artists are next

http://news.yahoo.com/8-charged-alleged-40m-fla-fortune-telling-scam-203920656.html

They are rounding up the scoundrels, time to grab the super hypesters that lose their sheep all their money.....40 milion is a drop in the hat compared to what these super gurus have scammed...

S&P Video for Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Friday, August 19, 2011

Nice fade, typical OE

Nice fade today, and from there it's been typical option expiration day action, despite the super gurus predicting a volatile day.

Volume on a brisk pace as expected, but unless something breaks in the afternoon, we should remain choppy.

Im gone for the day but this weekend I'll be doing a video on the Euro move that is setting up. Just to take all the "mystery" out of it [lol] I won't be predicitng direction, that's a fool's game based on the pattern that the Euro is currently set up in.

Have a great rest of the trading day,

tiny

Thursday, August 18, 2011

S&P Video for Friday, August 19th, 2011

SLV

GLD

Stock market Trading Watch List For Friday, August 19th, 2011

Just what the tiny ordered

If you've been watching my videos over the last few days, you know that I've been looking for a pullback that HOLDS support for a potential buying op for a swing back higher. I dont think we go far, I don't think we are in a bull market, I dont think we have seen the lows. I do think that the correction of the big push down the last few weeks can be more complex than just a few days up and {sploosh} again.

After Thursday's action, my thoughts haven't changed, BUT there is no evidence that the support has held, yet. Yes, we have held the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the bounce off the lows on a closing basis, but so what? We'll need to watch the action over the next few days to confirm that this low is holding, even for a small bounce.

tiny

P.S. If the lows of today are taken out, next support is 112.61. Below that and I think we get at least a full retracement, if not a 127% external retracement of the last swing.

Going to lunch

Heading to lunch, but keep an eye on this pattern here, we stil look like we want to try and lift, but we are swimming upstream against the breadth. Watch for a change there

tiny

breadth improving, a little bit

We are trying to put a bottom in here, but the breadth keeps me from being anywhere close to confident that it will happen, even though it's upticking a little bit

I can't get off the fence, my rules are my rules

tiny

volume is brisk

Volume is strong relative to the last few days here.

Makings a short term reversal? If breath wasn't so awful, I would have some confidence in that theory. As for now, it's continual wait and see.

tiny

AMZN and GOOG

AMZN hits the 200 day MA, GOOG gets the bonus from the breakdown triggered on Tuesday.

View the Stock Market Watch List videos from the past few days for more on these.

tiny

Super gurus and their gaps....OUCH!

Another day the super guru gets smacked with the gap fades

Get away as quickly as you can from these maggots and their henchmen (and henchwomen), they can do nothing but harm you...

As I've said multiple times, everyone is wrong at times, but when these scum tell you how things are 'easy" and make you feel ashamed for not making money, they are the lowest of low.

It's all just a scheme to get your money.

They make you feel that you aren't paying enough to get the "good stuff" and then the next pitch is for them to manage your money for you. They never quit at their scams.

tiny

Breadth awful, but

Breadth is pretty awful, but we have a possible highe rlow in place at the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the swing up off the lows

This is basis the SPY

Can't fight breadth, but definitely worth watching

tiny

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Monday, August 15, 2011

S&P video For Tuesday, August 16th, 2011

Out in the AM

I will miss the gap, but I'll be here by mod morning.

Watch that gap

tiny

Some awesome news

I'm very close to collaborating with a ridiculously awesome chat room moderator and trade caller. If this deal gets done, we will form a fantastic team for stocks, futures, and currencies.

No hype, no double talk, just great information that will assist you in your trading.

More to come shortly!

tiny




Stock Market Trading Watch List for Tuesday, August 16th, 2011

Bulls win....I guess

Market is going out on it's highs, but volume is lame. Sure seems like the bulls are swimming upstream here as we await the other shoe to drop.

tiny

Choppy market

Good morning......ummmm afternoon!

Market is choppy here as another no fade day sheers the super gurus sheep! PLEASE check out a real trading room for the love of kittens! You don't need to be paying a mortgage payment to get front run and pumped and dumped!

The Euro is getting a nice move on the session, but still overall in a range. ADX is up ticking. Will the breakout come to the upside?

tiny

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Monday, August 15th, 2011

S&P 500 Video for Monday, August 15th, 2011

I don't know what makes you a bigger loser...

What makes you a bigger loser? Buying Facebook likes for your fan page while acting like they got their naturally, or soliciting birthday wishes? I guess they are probably equally loserish.

Pathetic doesn't even begin to describe it....

tiny

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Remember.....

Bernie Madoff has more honor than many of these super guru criminal hypesters

Don't be fooled with sob stories about someone being sick or how they are out to help people and do charity work, it's all PHONEY.

They are gambling addicts, which is why they NEVER follow through on what they say, they are too busy spending YOUR money or gambling with YOUR money

Do your due diligence on these filthbags and do yourself a favor, do NOT send them any money to "handle" for you.

tiny

Some important reading for Saturday

Here are some past posts regarding scammers, criminals and scoundrels.

Read them, and make sure you are protecting yourself from their predatory schemes

Click on the words to get taken to the post:

Important when choosing a broker, and doing due diligence on super gurus and their henchmen

Forex

Hedge Funds

Follow up to that post

Hedge Funds again


Forced continuity (like free trial offers)

Finally, here's one that links to another article about how hedge funds are a scam

Enjoy!

tiny

Friday, August 12, 2011

H&S target hit

Bingo, target on the head and shoudlers has been hit, now lets see if it gets any bonus points

tiny

Euro- don't fall asleep on it!

Don't fall asleep on the Euro. The daily chart has an ADX under 9 currently.

See my post here about a big move I am expecting.

tiny

Possible H&S here and a late check in

Possible head and shoulders pattern setup here on the 699 tick chart with jsut a 4 point first target.

Checking in late today, I was up until 6AM reading some articles about the coming demise of the world due to this recent price action, or something like that. That's the problem with reading so late at night, I can't retain the info, if I even wanted to.

tiny

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Friday, August 12th, 2011

Looks like

Looks like those sheep that followed the super guru's call for a hold into close got smoked like salmon

It's ok, a new scam is right around the corner

tiny

S&P Video for Friday, August 12th

E wave video to watch

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Strong breadth and good price action

Strong A-D line here and we just broke out of a bull flag.

Tuesday's highs are the next target, followed by 1180.

tiny

volume on the light side

Sorry I missed the AM posts, I was actually fulfilling some of the free coaching I offered on my videos. If you want 15 minutes free with me, write me and I'll schedule you in, I have a bunch more this afternoon.

Volume appears to be on the light side as the market digests and so far, is forming an inside day.

Dont forget: Feel free to contact me at tinymjs at gmail dot com to schedule 15 minutes of free coaching

tiny

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Stock market trading watch list for Thursday, August 11th, 2011

WARNING: Be careful of hypesters managing your money

I know I've said it before, but PLEASE do your due diligence before sending any money to hypesters and CRIMINALS who have started or are starting hedge funds, managed money programs, and commodity pools.

Here's the thing, I know you want to believe them when they tell you they are trying to do "right by their members" or whatever lie they make up, but they are super hypocrites and want nothing more than to pick your pockets.

After all, they are the biggest screamers about "brokers being bad people", although they endorse the worst ones because they pay the best and how you should "learn to fish" but yet take your money to manage at ridiculously high rates.

Here is a quick due diligence checklist, but not an all inclusive one:

1)Find out how much money the person running the fund has in. Ask why that amount? If it's only a fraction of their net worth, ask them why so little? If they believe it enough to sell you on loan shark like management fees, shouldn't they be all in themselves? If there is more than 1 person running the money, find out how much EVERYONE has in the fund. If someone doesn't have any money in the fund they are pushing, ask why? Are they using you to fund their lifestyle and pay their bills? Really?

2) Ask any and all people running your money if they ever ran money before and what their performance was. You Will be surprised at the results (because they would never admit it on their blogs, facebook pages or websites) and will likely run the other way!

3) Ask what their rules for handling risk are. These scam artists take ENORMOUS draw downs in their personal accounts, having dozens of margin calls fire off over the years. What will happen when they take a wicked draw down with YOUR money?

4) Why are they starting to manage money now? Don't buy the whole "our clients asked for it" scam. They are playing another angle because their previous scams have dried up due to the fact that everyone is on to them.

Make sure there is transparency, and no lock up so you can get your money out when you start seeing the shenanigans going on, like un returned phone calls and emails. I'm sure there will be an excuse meant to tug at your heartstrings, but these people could care less about you, they just want your money.

I'll keep good thoughts for those that drank the Kool Aid.

tiny


S&P 500 video for Thursday, August 11th, 2011

GS

WOW! Gave all of yesterday back and then some

tiny

There was enough time!

Failure at 28.50 brought the ES down to new lows on the day

Not a good follow through day for the Bulls, thats for sure. I was exepcting at least an attempt and except for about an hour, there was no sign of the bulls present

volume was on the light side, whcih is about one of the only things I can take out of the day as a positive

More in my video that will be posted in a few

tiny

Push up

The push up was only worth 17 S&P points before turning back down again

1128.50 is short term support

below that we could head for low of day, but threres only 30 to go, so there may not be enough time

tiny

Back for a little bit

No fade, instead a trap and snap move, where the first 5 minute bar gets taken out only to sharply reverse. It's also why the super guru's techniques are antiquated, to say the least. Maybe they should stop suing everyone, and work on better entries for their gap clients.

On another note, the SPY tested adn bled through the 62% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday's range, but is now back above that level. 111.88 is the key line in the sand. If that gets and stays broken, a full retracement of yesterday's lows is then expected.

It looks like we are trying to carve out a bottom here, so if breadth does improve, watch for a try back to the highs and then a try for a gap move

WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION in this kind of market, it doesnt hurt to be a little late.

tiny







I'm walking out the door, but first

S&P Futures are down 2.15% pre market

Im leaving, but watch this for a possible gap fade after confirmation has set up

tiny

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Here ya go, another video worth watching

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The Blog will be dark

The blog will be dark tomorrow morning, but hopefully Ill be back for some afternoon excitement!

tiny

Stock Market Trading Watch List For Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

There is a monster move brewing in the Euro



I'm not a big fan of fundamentals, so if you want to know whats going on over in Europe re: the economy, then you will have to Google it. Let me know what you find out please!

The daily chart of the EUR/USD is showing a low ADX congestion pattern, and that will likely lead to a nice move when the Euro decides to break this logjam and make a directional move that lasts longer than a few days.

A crude measurement of the move right now says at least an 800 point move can occur, based on the width of the pattern, but that is obviously not in stone.

The problem with these wind downs is that usually before the breakout goes in the true direction, they will usually try to shake and bake the aggressive traders.

Nothing is easy and it's surely not red light, green light, but the low to high volatility cycle can be an extremely powerful one if traded correctly.

I have absolutely no opinion on direction, and I will keep saying that over and over, because what gets most traders into trouble is trying to guess direction from a non directional pattern.

tiny











If history echoes...

The next two days should be up days if history is any guide, and could have some nice % gains on them as well.

History doesn't repeat, but it often times does echo

It's not enough to go on, because there still needs to be confirmation in the market with volume and leadership, but it's a good rough draft.

tiny

Love those super gurus!

They tell you how great they did, even though they say that the gap on Monday should fill, and we finish at the lows

Liars! Remember, if their lips are moving, they are lying

tiny

S&P 500 video for Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

After hours movement

We are still going to the upside here as they are stil buying in the pit.

This should lead to a bounce lasting a few days at the least.

tiny

Bulls end it on a strong note

A very sweet 75 point S&P rally off the lows post FOMC.

tiny

back to 1152

I was all over 1152 yesterday, and hey we only got a hmmmmmmmmmmmm 55 point overshoot on it as support!

let's see what we do if we remount this here

tiny

New highs

You cant fight the breadth, it's been ruling the roost over the past few days

New highs here with 15 left to go, TICK hitting new highs suggesting more to come!

tiny

1144.50

The top of the POST FOMC announcement spike is being taken out here

tiny

Nice push up here

Bulls putting it on the aggressive shorts here after the FOMC announcement

Look for a push higher into teh clsoe here

tiny

Euro

The Euro broke reistance and retested the FOMC announcement highs

1.4347 is next resistance to watch.

tiny

Will the volatility subside?

Just got a quesiton: Now that we possibly have "a" low in here, wil the volatiltiy subside?

If we do bounce for a few days, volatiltiy should wind down a little bit, but don;t expect it to just go right back to the burtal choppiness we saw some days a few weks ago

Remember, anything less than 40 point ranges would be a contraction from here

tiny

1128.50

1128.50 is support if we keep pulling in here

tiny

Bulls are the boss, at least for now

Good breadth readings and the pullbacks have been shallow

Let's see if we get higher into the close, but wait for a trigger, as we've seen fakeouts the last few days, and who knows if the bears want to climb back in on this pop

If we close well, then a gap down Wednesday should provide a nice gap fading opportunity

tiny

Staying in the range

The range from the post FOMC move has set the tone for the last hour here

Highs are 1144.50 lows are 1097

tiny

Breadth +2k

Nice and strong A-D line here, although we were seeing -3k on the last few down days

tiny

We went up to the Post FOMC high

We didnt quite make the exact high, but we got close, and now we are pulling back down here

1126.25 support

tiny

Big spike here

We just saw a big spike in the TICK here, let's see if it pauses before more upside into the close

The S&P goes from negative to +20s jsut like that, absolutely incredible

tiny

The making of "a" low

Once again, I don't think we are at "the" low, but a possible low for a bounce is in place here, since we did take out yesterday's lows and reversed off of it pretty nicely here

How long this bounce lasts is anyone's guess

tiny

From red to +20 in a few minutes

Absolutely extreme volatility here

And the day has some time to go yet

tiny

Bulls in charge?

Bull are trying to take charge here lets see how far they get

tiny

Wrong number

1107.25 is short term support, apologies for last post

tiny

Who will pull it out

Are the lows in or is the last $TICK spike down suggesitng new lows to come here into the last hour

Short term support: 1104.25

Short term resistance: 1123.50

tiny

Push back down to

We had a push back down to the gap fill, but a quick rejection and now we are trying to hold in here

It's the last hour of the NY session, so let's see who wants to win the day

Like a clos basketball game, it may not be decided until the buzzer

tiny

Nice push up form 1100

23 point push up here, absolute sick volatility

TICK hit a new low on the last push down, so lets see if we get a retest down, or that was the sign of a selling climax

tiny

next support

1100 holds for now (with a little bit of bleed through), but if we get below that, 1092 is next

tiny

Below yesterday's lows

Looks like the Bulls put togetehr a few hours worth of work, and then just gave up trying.

We are seeing a nice push here to fresh lows

1100 support

tiny

And Nope!

No more cup adn handle, a least to me

Looks like we want a retest of the lows instead

tiny

Could be a small cup and handle

it looks like we could have a small cup and handle setting up on the tick chart. Im using a 699 tick chart to view it

tiny

Euro

The Euro is also going a little bit nuts to put it mildly

1.4290 resistance

tiny

Gap was filled

And now a nice pop back, 20 points off the gap

Let's see what happens after the dust settles (relatively speaking) at 2:30 or so

tiny

two way action

First move was to the upside, and it got faded quickly. Now new lows got bought up, and they are retracing the last push down here, but running out of steam

tiny

new lwos

As I finished up timing that last post, we hit a new low of day

tiny

Low of day next target

The Low of day is the next downside target here

tiny

Wow

10 point bar just then I didnt see the TICK go with it so either I'm delayed TICK wise or it didnt happen

tiny

Here we go

Rates remain unchanged. First push looks higher let's see if we get a TICK spike to go with it

tiny

here comes the Fed

Back just in time!

Let's see how we act after the announcement. Ill be watching for a spike in price either way with an accompanying TICK move

tiny

Back for the Fed

I'll be back for the Fed, we should remain choppy (relatively speaking compared to the last few days) until then

tiny

Whoops!

I missed 1149 as short term resistance, thats the last hour's highs from yesrterday

tiny

New highs by a few ticks

Not much follow through here so far on the push to new highs

Resistance if we get above them adn stick is 1154.50

tiny

Thanks for all the emails

Im sorting through them to get some questions answered that haven't be addressed yet in the posts from yesterday

tiny

The market is crawling!

Only 4.75 points in 16 minutes!

Compared to the last few days it;s like we are closed!


tiny

Some observations

Some observations for today's market (so far):

1) The TICK has only gotten to -788

2) Today's range is not only an inside day, but so far it's inside the LAST HOUR from yesterday.

tiny

Just got back

A few weeks ago I made an appointment for today, because well, it was the FOMC meeting and I figured it was going to be a dull day. I was reminded of my appointment last night at 11:30 when I fired up my outlook. Too late to cancel, and while I should have been back by 10, it ran over.

Nice "contracted' range today comapred to the last week or so, but still some nice setups.

From here, we can continue to form the day's range into the FOMC announcement at
2:15, but then? we might see some renewed fireworsk dependign on what is said.

Short term suport is 1131 and reistance is high of day.

tiny

Monday, August 8, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

Looks like

Well, it looks like they are trying to get those overnight margin calls cranking

Market is down in the 1090s here

tiny

Answering some questions

Here are some questions I have gotten over the past few days:

Q: Is the low near? A: I think "a" low is near, but not "the" low of this move. I think we ultimately have much further down to go.

Q: Is this considered a crash? A: No

Q: Is this the greatest buying opportunity of the year? A: I don't think that is the case. I think any bounce will offer a shorting opportunity for more downside

Q: Are you single? A: Yes, I mean no! Today is my anniversary, 12 years!

Q: Why do you keep looking for a bounce? A: Because the market doesn't move straight up or straight down, we are severely oversold, and we have some cycles that are set to kick in across a few time frames. I'm not necessarily looking for a bounce, as much a I am looking for levels to watch to trail stops and take profits if short.

Do you have any questions? Feel free to write me at tinymjs at gmail dot com

tiny

S&P 500 video for Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

And there it goes

1100 being tested here. I haven't checked the news, so I don't know what is on the tape for this

tiny

Selling continues

Selling continuing to hit the tape here after the NY market closed

tiny

How it will work when we do bounce

The market doesnt go straight up or down, so we will bounce eventually.

Everyone will start talking about how skewed the readings are, how oversold, blah blah blah.

Remember, we have been marking off support levels and they keep getting SHREDDED. the whole "we can't get anymore stretched" routine is just pure nonsense, we can continue to fall untii the market decides to roll it back.

Hindsight is 20/20, and there will be a lot of that when we finally do get a bounce

today was UGLY

VIX

Looking like it wants to hit 50 or above before this move is over

Watch tomorrow if there is any downside in the morning

tiny

Breadth -3k, TRIN is a tad skewed

My $TRIN reading is only at 1 which is obviously a tad skewed considering the market action

tiny

Putrid

We look like we have a better chance to close at lows then to get a push higher into end of day

This is very ugly action

tiny

1147.50

1147.50 was the AM low. this last punch up got 6 ticks above before reversing

If we try another bounce, that level will be key once again

tiny

Tuesday

Tuesday is Fed day. There is a tendency to trade higher into the FOMC announcement.

Whether that tendency holds up during this destruction remains to be seen

tiny

Breadth is the boss

Despite a few attempts at a bounce, the market has followed the breadth perfectly on the session.

Historical ratio levels are being seen here but all that means is new records are being set. A big mistake traders make (and I'm one of them), is looking for historical levels as signs of a place for a reversal to happen.

They are reference levels, but much more evidence is needed in order for you to use them as a trade entry

tiny

Here's a new trend

Sell the rumor sell the news!

tiny

WOW

Just getting back, and I was actually catching up with an old friend who was telling me that this is just another buy the dip scenario and tha tthe market will recover by the end of the year

Who am I to argue?

So much for holding the lows! Thats why volume is NEVER enough, and without other confirming factors, it's just guessing

Breadth is -3000 and showing no signs of letting up at all here

This is major nastiness, and there will be plenty of talk about fund liquidations and margin calls

tiny

Volume down here

The volume pattern down here is saying that this is just a test of lows and should not break through too deeply, if at all.

It's not enough to be a buy signal because:

a) Breadth is still horrible

b) There is no price pattern to confirm

volume is just one thing to watch, you need confirmation from other sources.

I'm going to grab lunch, Im assuming the market will still be here when I return!

tiny

Same type of volume

We just saw the same type of volume pattern that marked the 1150.75 pullback low

That led to a 17.25 point romp. The same measurement would bring this to 1171.50

The difference here is we did not just spring off the low, we are meandering


tiny

As is usually the case

On a big down day, I will usually start to look for a lunch time low

That doesn't mean it's the low of day, but it can hold at least until after the lunch hour at 1PM

Still a good 20 minutes to lunch, despite the 1-2:30 zone that some morons quote as lunchtime. That idiocy alone proves it was just luck for them.

tiny

Some good overshoot examples

I was watching 1152 as support, we overshot by 4.5 points. Then, the upside target of the bounce was the opening price, we overshot that by 4 points.

Seems like 4 points give or take are a good reference number at least for today

Using those reference levels, it would make below 1154 a dead end for this 1159 pullback level

tiny

Trying

1159 is trying, but we are continuing to push it lower here, and getting some bleed through

A great question was asked: How much is an actual overshoot, and how much is a failure? In this environment, I would say 5-7 points (basis the S&P Futures not on individual stocks!) is still in overshoot territory, but that's strictly one man's opinion, and in no way a law. This will change as volatility winds itself down, which unless the cycle changes, it will eventually do. 10 days ago, 1.75 points was a max overshoot I would use

See if we get a remount on 1159 and a try at some upside

Breadth is still atrocious, so bounces are swimming upstream for now

As I finish typing this, we are starting to get deeper below 1159

tiny

Flirting with 1159

We are trying to hold this 1159 number. I dont think if we lose it that the lows are next, but it would definitely break up my model for the time being

remember, not exact numbers, especially in these highly volatile times, overshoot is common

tiny

Lows in?

After 1152 failed to hold, the remount has seen some good testing and back filling, and appears to be holding up

We went 20 off the lows, and are now resting. Watching to see if we hold above 1159 and if that leads to continued upside

tiny

1152 A dissapointment!

Waited all night for 1152 to get hit, and all that it was worth was 4 points

Still think there's a chance we can bounce here, but I'm flat

tiny

There it is

1152 is tagged,let's see if it holds

tiny

1152 on the Daily



It doesn't mean it holds!

tiny

We have some convergence

1152 is a 162% Fibonacci external retracement on two time frames, including today's range

It's just a reference level, there has to be confirmation of support

tiny

1152 in play

Watching 1152 as a downside support level

We must confirm that level as support, it's not just a buy and hold your nose!!

Breadth is WICKED!

tiny

All the super guru gap buyers

OUCHIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!

Please, stop drinking the Kool Aid!

tiny

Bingo

Testing the lows here

Not a full retest yet but it looks like we want at least the overnight lows

tiny

Looks like we want lower

Watching for a retest of lows at a minimum

tiny

Trying to carve out a range

We are trying to carve out an AM range here

Still whippy skippy, lower size is the key

tiny

Breadth

Once again, breadth is horrific

It will be VERY hard to get a significant lift with this breadth after the first half hour

tiny

Failure or ripper

We have a failure pattern up here. If it is offset, then we can rip another 10+ to the upside. If not, we can make a test towards the lows, but there are a lot of Fibs to get through

Support levels from the Fibs:

1170.25
1168.25
1165.75 (line in the sand) If we break that we can look for a full retracement to the lows

tiny

RIPPING!

Nice ripper here 16 points off the lows

1152 looks like it will have to wait!

tiny

First 5 minutes

The first 5 minutes are in here, and we had a nice 10 point ripper off the early low

Waiting to see if a pattern sets up here for a fade entry

tiny

And here we go

Waiting at least 5 minutes here. Of course, in this market that can be 20 points lol

We held the "late low" from 5:30 AM at 1162.25

Watching 1167.75 as resistance short term


tiny

Levels I am watching

We have a big gap down on our hands. A gap of this size offers a nice fading opportunity.

I like to wait at least 5 minutes before looking for an entry, and I like to have something to "lean against".

I'm watching overnight lows at 1161.50 and then 1152 as a key pivot level.

tiny


26 point range

The overnight session had a 26 point range so far, and it may try to break the lows before the open.

tiny

Saturday, August 6, 2011

SPY and 115


The 62% Fibonacci Retracement of the rally up off the July 1st 2010 lows is 114.90. This makes the 115 handle a key and critical number for the SPY on this current move. If we gap down severely from the downgrade of the US this level is one to definitely watch for support should we fall to it.

Again, I don't use levels as absolutes, just as reference areas. If a pattern doesn't set up, I will pass and look for a better entry, bu hey, that's me!

Even if we don't get slammed, it's still a level to watch on the short term if the downside continues.

tiny

Friday, August 5, 2011

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

wow what a move off the lows, 25 S&P points in a few minutes

holy mackeral!

Watching for a pause, and then we should test green again

tiny

Lows in?

117.93 is now remounted here.

IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF

this can hold, the lows of the day could be in. Im using 117.83 (yes .10 below the previous mentioned number) now as a line in the sand

tiny

tis only a scratch!

Only a 1 point bleed through of the 117.93 number LOL

Unreal

Volatility is sick here

tiny

117.93

1117.93 is either now RESISTANCE or a mount back above it sets up continued upside here


tiny

volatility through the roof

We are slicing and dicing through levels like they are nothing, big batches of movement here

For me it means widen stops and reduce size but others have different plans Im sure!

tiny

Now I'm wathcing

For a remount of 117.93, a pause that HOLDS it and then a pattern to form there

tiny

Still no pattern to lean against

Waiting for something to set up here, we are below the level (117.93) I was watching for a possible low

This is ugliness abound!

tiny

Not holding!

117.93 did not hold on the SPY, we have no low yet into lunch

WOW extreme selling again here

crash talk out and about once again

tiny

Tagged!

117.93 has been tagged (with a little bleed through so far)

Big question now is if we keep going or is the low into lunch set

tiny

117.93


Here's the chart

tiny

Not quite


S&P Futures did hit and hold support (so far) at 1179.50, but the SPY has not yet hit the 117.93 level I've been yapping about.

Let's see if it wants to get there today.

tiny

Adn by the time I posted the last one...

We were already hitting the new low

Now let's see how we act

tiny

Watching for a new low

Watching here for a new low, and seeing if this gets cleaned up if the SPY hits 117.93

I only use exact levels as reference points and then see if we pivot off of them.

Watch how we act there.

tiny

Do we break the lows?

Market couldn't stay above 1200 for long, and we are 10 points away from the next support level, after the lows of day

Not in a rush to go anywhere apparently, for now we are chopping around, carving out a range

tiny

Why I was looking for a bounce


Someone messaged me asking about my "looking for a bounce here" in my post a few back.

We were at the 127% external retracement, and we pushed through the lower Bollinger band to get there.

We wound up only getting a scalp like bounce (about 6 or so points for this type of market), but that was my reasoning, it wasn't gut, dreams or feel.

tiny

resistance

resistance sits at 1200

tiny

I don't know if we get there

I don't know if we get there, but that 117.93 support number, if confirmed could be a nice buying level on the SPY. Once we approach that level, I'll be watching a smaller time frame for a pattern to develop

tiny

32 points from 1215

I will say that I seriously underestimated the potential move!

Still, both fade targets were achieved

tiny

Breadth divergence

We have breadth divergence with yesterday, but we are still at almost -2k

Not the kind of reading that leads to major rallies

tiny

So far.....

We came just under a dollar shy of the SPY target of 117.93

Will they get us there today?

tiny

And a big one it;s not

We got a few points but it was quickly rejected and we are now back down at new lows, but now that's being rejected as well

High volatility here

tiny

Below the lows

Below overnight and yesterday's lows here

watching for a bounce right here, but it may not be a big one until we hit the levels mentioned last night

tiny

2nd (final) target almost reached

gap fill would be the final target, and its getting hit right now as I finish typing this

tiny

1215 resistance

1215 was nice resistance and the first target was hit (20 EMA)

Now seeing what kind of bounce we can get.

tiny

Nice size gap up

Nice size gap up to start the session. Let's see if a fade pattern sets up

1215, 1219.50 are first resistance levels to watch

tiny

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Stock Market Trading Watch List for Friday, August 5th, 2011

The VIX

The last time the VIX was near this level we got a nice bounce. Of course, we were over the 200 day MA, and we were 5 points higher on the SPY, so it is not an apples to apples scenario

tiny

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tiny

Breadth


Basically straight down, without any let up. Just ugly, but overdone on the short term.

tiny

S&P Video for Friday, August 5th, 2011

SICK volume readings

Down volume was super skewed compared to the upside readings

Complete and utter ugliness!

tiny

Extreme VIX, Extreme TRIN

Extreme readings on this extreme down day bring us short term oversold

A gap down tomorrow could offer a nice opportunity for a long side TRADE, and nothing more until more evidence was seen

tiny

We didn't crash....

While we didn't crash this afternoon, the super bears that I read over lunch were correct, at least for today

I give credit where credit is due!

My theory of a bounce into the Job numbers was way wrong, we basically closed at our lows for the NY session.

tiny

1200

I'm watching to see if we can close back above 1200. What will that mean? ABSOLUTELY nothing, just maybe a psychological trap for Friday.

Some will say "well, we did hold 1200" that kinda nonsense

tiny

Whites of their eyes time?

Is this enough of a wash out to jump back into the (long side) water?

First, we are now below the 200 day moving averages across the board. Second, this impulse was harsh, so even a correction would likely lead to a continuation pattern and another push lower (at the least) before this is done

The dust will have to settle here and that could take a few days at the least.

tiny

TRIN closing over 2

Suggesting a bounce Friday sometime, but who's going to hold overnight after this?

This is super harsh selling

tiny

Retest of 1200

The underside of 1200 just got tested and rejected

I wouldnt be surprised if we get back above it into the close, but not loking that way now thats for sure

tiny


,

Breadth was the clue the whole day

Just couldn't get its boot off the bull;'s neck even with that nice bounce after the AM low was put in

tiny

Wil they lose 1200 into the close?

1202.50 Support being tested here

Will they bring us below 1200 into the close?

tiny

Last hour

Acceleration or short covering?

Im watching around here for a possible bounce in that 3:20-3:40 time zone, but with -2700 breadth, I don't expect it to be much of one

tiny

next levels

Support levels: 1208, 1202.50

Resistance levels: 1213.50 (the last high)

tiny

New lows

Target met, now for the bonus

tiny

Test of lows

No break, but we did test the lows just now. See how far this bounce goes

tiny

There we go

We are below 1215.50 now, looking at new lows IF the break holds here

tiny

1215.50 must hold

1215.50 must hold, if not, we are likely going to a new low on the day

tiny

GOOG

GOOG at the 20 daily moving average here

See if it can hold here, if not, the 200 day at 575.60s would be next

tiny

We are close to a bounce

We are close to a bounce, if not today then maybe Friday, and that bounce will be key to watch. If we don't get a good one with breadth and volume backing it up, it will likely just be a bear flag that can lead us further down

We are below the 200 day moving averages across the board on the indexes, so we are in bearish territory

tiny

Internals rule

Always keep your internals front and center, as they look "inside" the market and keep you on the right side, or at least OUT of the wrong side

tiny

I cant believe

I can't believe I passed on the greatest sandwich ever in order to read the nonsense on the interweb

Lots of crash talk going around. Who knows, maybe they are right, but we are a little skewed to one side sentiment wise

I can't get bullish with the A-D line like this, so waiting it out for a better singal

tiny

Ouch!

Id hate to be one of the ones that follow the super gurus break of the first 5 minute bar high gap entry that's a very well known, well talked about (to death actually) entry. I started teaching that over 10 years ago, and while it can be one entry to use, it should be one of a few, and it's all dependent on the type of gap.

You see, the super gurus love gap downs, but they don't know why. They love them because they can scam more unsuspecting people. The problem they have with gap ups is that many people are still afraid to short, and since most of the super gurus have newbies as victims (once they learn anything they quickly leave for better places) they don't make any money on gap ups because they don't short them, and the super gurus can't brag.

The super gurus are likely getting crushed here, but will never admit it.

Eh, don't feel sorry for them, it's ok, there is another class and super deluxe list to super over hype right around the corner!

tiny

New high in $TICK

New high in $TICK leading to a dip here

Breadth is the issue, unless it gets a serious change, the upside will continue to be limited

Still wondering if there will be convienant news released.

tiny

1232

Next resistance is 1232, using the 15 minute EMA now, so it will adjust

That would be a 20 point bounce off the lows!

Breadth is horrific here or else I'd really be thinking that those lows could be it for the day

tiny

reistance tagged

Let's see what we do here, I think we can chop for a lil bit as we see up the afternoon

I have to go to lunch, I haven't eaten in like 4 hours!

tiny

I'm going to do an emergency class

How super gurus can be dangerous to your health!

I hope those that drank the kool aid realise that these scum dont walk on water and they abandon you when you need them most.

tiny

Intra-day SPY video

Breadth is horrific

-2500s A-D line

It will be very hard to get a big bounce

tiny

1225

Short term resistance is 1225

Use the 20 EMA on the 5 minute chart for a dynamic levels

tiny

Ok.....

1212.50 was the bomb!

Now all I have to do is erase all the other support levels I "predicted" like the super gurus do LOL

Well, I was wrong the first several levels down, and so far we have a 7 point bounce, and it's got a long way to go to be a real "low"

Back after lunch. Time for the greatest sandwich ever!

tiny

Looking for the low into lunchtime here

No idea if it's the low for the day, week, year, life, whatever, but just looking for us to chop around a little bit as the morning volatility calms down. This afternoon, things could get wild again.

tiny

1212.50

Next support to watch is 1212.50

tiny

What I think

I just received a message asking if I think we just crash from here

What I think doesn't matter.

I'm looking for the Russell to break the lows, and trap any aggressive shorts who haven't jumped in yet.

Then, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a turn, but would need a real good pattern, and would be real aggressive trailing a stop

Russell just broke yesterdays lows here

tiny

The ONLY bright note

The Russell 2000 is holding yesterday's lows

Possible scenario is they break those lows only to reverse and put the low in.

We'll see, as of now, it's a bloodbath. Breadth is nasty

tiny

1230.25 reisstance

Just using the 20EMA here as a dynamic resistance level

tiny

Scalpers on the Pivot

S2 pivot coupled with the volume analysis, led to a scalp at best. This pullback attracted some buying let's see if it gets anywhere.

tiny